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Wheat production expected to be similar to slightly higher than last year in most areas

  • Special Report
  • Afghanistan
  • June 21, 2016
Wheat production expected to be similar to slightly higher than last year in most areas

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  • Key Messages
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    Key Messages
    • National wheat production in Afghanistan is likely to be the same or slightly above that of last year, due to relatively favorable weather and precipitation conditions, which has resulted in increased cultivation of both rain-fed and irrigated wheat at the national level.

    • The recent winter wheat harvest in Pakistan and the upcoming spring wheat harvest in Kazakhstan are both expected to be sufficient to allow normal trade flows of wheat and wheat flour into Afghanistan at stable prices.

    • The incidence and severity of spring flooding has been less than last year, and the impact on national cereal harvests is expected to be lower. However, floods have had significantly adverse impacts in affected areas.  

    • Although agricultural production is expected to be the same or slightly above that of last year, many IDPs affected by conflict, as well as returnees and households affected by natural disasters such as flash floods, plant diseases, and pests, will experience acute food insecurity.

    • Although fluctuations in staple food prices have been minimal, reduced labor wages and livestock prices in some areas during the lean season have likely impacted the purchasing power of households who mostly rely on labor and livestock production for income and food access.

    • Timely availability and accessibility of quality agricultural inputs (Improved seed, fertilizer, hand tools and chemicals) are crucial. Also, further improvement and strengthening of veterinary and agricultural extension services is required.

    • Evidence of average wheat production, stable food prices, increased coverage and continued support of nutrition services indicate that the national level of acute malnutrition will remain the same or be negligibly different than that of last year. However, an increase in the level of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is expected in Kunduz, Baghlan, Helmand and Nangarhar provinces as a result of continued conflict which limits health and nutrition services and food accessibility.

    • This pre-harvest assessment, with information collected in April and May 2016, reflects cropping progress and conditions at the time of data collection, and the expected outlook for the upcoming harvests. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL) will provide specific wheat production estimates in its post-harvest report, expected by the end of July 2016.


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    Occasionally, FEWS NET will publish a Special Report that serves to provide an in-depth analysis of food security issues of particular concern that are not covered in FEWS NET’s regular monthly reporting. These reports may focus on a specific factor driving food security outcomes anywhere in the world during a specified period of time. For example, in 2019, FEWS NET produced a Special Report on widespread flooding in East Africa and its associated impacts on regional food security.

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