Special Report

Wheat production expected to be similar to slightly higher than last year in most areas

June 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
FAO
WFP

Key Messages

  • National wheat production in Afghanistan is likely to be the same or slightly above that of last year, due to relatively favorable weather and precipitation conditions, which has resulted in increased cultivation of both rain-fed and irrigated wheat at the national level.

  • The recent winter wheat harvest in Pakistan and the upcoming spring wheat harvest in Kazakhstan are both expected to be sufficient to allow normal trade flows of wheat and wheat flour into Afghanistan at stable prices.

  • The incidence and severity of spring flooding has been less than last year, and the impact on national cereal harvests is expected to be lower. However, floods have had significantly adverse impacts in affected areas.  

  • Although agricultural production is expected to be the same or slightly above that of last year, many IDPs affected by conflict, as well as returnees and households affected by natural disasters such as flash floods, plant diseases, and pests, will experience acute food insecurity.

  • Although fluctuations in staple food prices have been minimal, reduced labor wages and livestock prices in some areas during the lean season have likely impacted the purchasing power of households who mostly rely on labor and livestock production for income and food access.

  • Timely availability and accessibility of quality agricultural inputs (Improved seed, fertilizer, hand tools and chemicals) are crucial. Also, further improvement and strengthening of veterinary and agricultural extension services is required.

  • Evidence of average wheat production, stable food prices, increased coverage and continued support of nutrition services indicate that the national level of acute malnutrition will remain the same or be negligibly different than that of last year. However, an increase in the level of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is expected in Kunduz, Baghlan, Helmand and Nangarhar provinces as a result of continued conflict which limits health and nutrition services and food accessibility.

  • This pre-harvest assessment, with information collected in April and May 2016, reflects cropping progress and conditions at the time of data collection, and the expected outlook for the upcoming harvests. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL) will provide specific wheat production estimates in its post-harvest report, expected by the end of July 2016.

     

    Please click on the download link above to view the full report.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics