Afghanistan
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Early in the 2023-24 wet season, the western, northern, central highlands, and central parts of the country along with some isolated parts in the southeast are expected to receive between 150 to 300 percent of average precipitation by the end of October 2023. Further, northeastern, and eastern parts of the country may receive up to 125 percent of average precipitation in the same period (Figure 1).
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An El Niño Advisory is in place for winter 2023-2024. El Niño is to continue through March-May 2024 and is expected to be strong in late 2023 and early 2024. Consequently, there is an increased likelihood of above-average precipitation from October 2023 to March 2024 in Afghanistan (Figure 2).
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The forecast of above-average precipitation during the 2023-24 winter wet season will most likely lead to above-average snow depths and snow water volumes (SWV) in many basins of the country. There is an increased likelihood of surface and groundwater replenishment as well.
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Forecasts of above-average precipitation and above-average temperatures (Figure 3) through spring (March to May) 2024 could potentially result in early snowmelt runoff in various basins. This could imply an increased risk of flooding from March to May 2024 in flood-prone parts of the country due to the anticipated above-average amounts of mountain snowpack in the winter months.
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The bulk of winter wheat planting takes place during November and December. The forecast of above-average precipitation for winter 2023-24 should lead to favorable soil moisture conditions, which in turn will lead to average to above-average wheat sown areas in the country.
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As per key informants, due to three consecutive drought seasons, the combination of below-average precipitation and lack of sufficient surface and groundwater resources have led to prevailing dry soil moisture conditions that are delaying the sowing activities in the northern and eastern parts of the country. Good precipitation in the second half of October and into November, consistent with the forecast, is needed to remedy the situation. Farmers are currently waiting for improvement in moisture conditions to start normal sowing activities.
Figure 1
October 1 – November 5, 2023
Source: UCSB CHC
Figure 2
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Figure 3
Light yellow to red indicates the likelihood of warmer temperatures in the upper tercile, and cyan to dark blue indicates the likelihood of cooler temperatures in the lower tercile.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.