Seasonal Monitor

Below-average cumulative precipitation and above-average temperatures expected in 2020/21 season

November 4, 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

KEY MESSAGES

  • Low precipitation amounts have so far been recorded from October 1-25 throughout the country. According to Global Forecast System 7-day and 14-day total precipitation forecasts, dry weather conditions are likely to continue through mid-November across most of the country. However, 30-40mm precipitation is forecast over the higher elevation areas in the northeast in the week ending November 16. Overall, below-average cumulative precipitation is expected in the October 1 to November 15 period in most areas (Figure 1).
  • Land preparation for winter wheat is currently underway in anticipation of normal seasonal precipitation in November. However, the forecast prolonged dry spell through mid-November may shorten the planting-window of winter wheat.
  • As of November 1, patches of snow 1.0-2.0m deep have formed at higher elevations in the east and northeast, while snow of 0.2-0.8m is seen over the surrounding lower elevation areas.
  • NOAA has issued a La Niña advisory for the northern hemisphere through the end of 2020/21 winter season. Consequently, below average cumulative precipitation (Figure 2) and above-average temperatures are forecast through March 2021 for Afghanistan. It should be noted that there is a 30-50 percent chance of significantly below average precipitation (precipitation in the lowest 20 percent of the long-term average) across the country from November 2020 to March 2021 according to C3S ensemble forecasts.
  • The wide-ranging possible consequences of below-average cumulative precipitation and above-average temperatures through March 2021 include: below-normal snow pack development, reduced snow water volumes and runoff, reduced water availability for the first and second crops, and depletion of groundwater.
  • Based on historical trends, northern rainfed areas are particularly at risk of reduced first season production due to below-average precipitation. Meanwhile, reduced runoff from below-average snow pack presents a particular risk for second season irrigated production, as snowpack may be depleted earlier than is typical (due to above-average temperatures) and given higher water requirements of second season crops.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics