Below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures are most likely for the 2022-23 wet season
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PrintIPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
KEY MESSAGES
October 1 – October 20, 2022, CHIRPS precipitation percent of average
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble precipitation forecast for November 2022-January 2023 made in October
Afghanistan crop calendar
Kajaki Reservoir water level in meters as of September 25, 2022. Data points marked in red correspond to the satellite images in Figure 5
Satellite images of Kajaki Reservoir surface extents on dates in the month of May in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, as marked in Figure 4. Drought conditions in 2021 and 2022 are clearly evident
- Higher elevations in Badakhshan, Takhar, and Ghor received normal precipitation while below-average precipitation was observed in the eastern and central provinces (Figure 1). Negligible precipitation was received in the areas under the dry mask.
- A La Niña Advisory has been issued by NOAA. La Nina is likely to persist into Northern Hemisphere Winter 2022- 2023 and will increase the likelihood of below-average precipitation in Afghanistan (Figure 2).
- Normally, winter wheat planting starts earliest in the northeastern and eastern parts of the country. It is supported by precipitation that begins in early October and progresses westward. (Figure 3). Due to lack of sufficient precipitation and below-average soil moisture until now, winter wheat planting activity is below-average in the above areas per key informants.
- Below-average precipitation throughout the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 wet seasons has severely depleted surface and ground water resources., The forecast of a prolonged dry spell may shorten the planting-window of winter wheat.
- Forecasts of below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures throughout the 2022-23 season may lead to below-normal snowpack development, which would reduce snow water volumes, runoff, and further reduce reservoir levels (Figures 4 and 5, Kajaki Reservoir).
- Rainfed wheat cultivation in the northern wheat belt is most likely to be below-average for a third consecutive season due to La Nina conditions. Pasture resources will most likely be adversely affected by the below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures conditions during spring.
About this Report
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.
Region Contact Information
Email: afghanistan@fews.net
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About FEWS NET
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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