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Above-average water availability as main season harvest and second season planting approach

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Afghanistan
  • May 22, 2019
Above-average water availability as main season harvest and second season planting approach

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  • Key Messages
  • UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
  • Partner
    USGS
    Key Messages
    • The 2018/19 wet season is concluding with cumulative rainfall 105 to 145 percent and higher of the long-term average across the country, mostly due to persistent weak El Niño conditions throughout the season.

    • The snowmelt water availability significantly decreased as is typical this time of year. The snowmelt is concluding across the basins except for a few in the northeast with permanent snowpack.

    • The seasonal abundance of rain and snow water has benefitted winter and spring wheat and is likely to facilitate second season cropping.

    • The most likely above-average temperatures in the coming months are likely to benefit grain formation/hardening and timely harvest of winter and spring wheat.


    UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

    Precipitation anomalies:

    Seasonal cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2018 through May 15, 2019 is significantly above average across most of the country. Most areas received upwards of 150 percent of long-term normal with relatively small areas in the northeast and southwest experiencing average to slightly above average conditions.  The excess rainfall will continue to provide abundant water during flowering and maturity of winter and spring wheat in May to June.

    Snowpack and snow water storage:

    Figure 2 indicates the completion of snowpack in most parts of the country except at higher elevations. The timing of the snowpack depletion is typical for this time of year in the region.

    Figure 3 highlights the status of snow water volumes in Arghandab, Balkhab, Hari Rod and Kabul basins as of May 20. The snowmelt water availability is concluding on time across the basins except for a few in the northeast with permanent snowpack. The above-average snowmelt water availability during the 2018/19 season has been beneficial for replenishing reservoirs and providing above average water for irrigated wheat crops.

     

    FORECASTS

    Precipitation

    Figure 4. Cumulative precipitation forecasts for 7-day periods ending May 28 and June 4 are shown in the left and right panels of Figure 4 respectively. Medium to heavy rain (30 to 80 mm) is forecast over the eastern, northeastern, and central provinces for the period ending May 28 (left panel). Thereafter typical, dry conditions are expected across the country except for light rains (15 to 30 mm) in northern Badakhshan and Nuristan provinces for the period ending June 4 (right panel).

    Temperature:

    The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast of 2-meter air temperature anomalies for June to August (with May initial conditions) indicates 40 to 60 percent probability of above-average temperatures in the northern region (Figure 5). The above-average temperatures are expected to provide necessary thermal energy for healthy grain filling and grain hardening of wheat in May to June. The above-average temperatures are also likely to facilitate timely harvest of wheat.

    Figures Mid-October to March is the winter wet season. March to May is the spring wet season. March to May is spring wheat planting.

    Figure 1

    Source: FEWS NET

    Seasonal cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2018 through May 15, 2019 is significantly above average across most of the

    Figure 2

    Figure 1

    Source: USGS/UCSB

    The snowpack in most areas of the country is depleted except in higher elevations.

    Figure 3

    Figure 2

    Source: USGS/EROS

    Figure 3 highlights the status of snow water volumes in Arghandab, Balkhab, Hari Rod and Kabul basins as of May 20. The snow

    Figure 4

    Figure 3

    Source: USGS/NASA

    Cumulative precipitation through May 28 is likely to have moderate to heavy rain in eastern, northeastern, and central provin

    Figure 5

    Figure 4

    Source: NOAA CPC

    The North American Multi-Modal Ensemble 2-meter air temperature (⁰C) forecast for June – August with May initial conditions.

    Figure 6

    Figure 5

    Source: NOAA CPC

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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