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Above average precipitation in April and early May increases water availability for crops and pastures

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Afghanistan
  • May 14, 2020
Above average precipitation in April and early May increases water availability for crops and pastures

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  • Key Messages
  • UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
  • FORECAST
  • Partner
    USGS

    Key Messages
    • Cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2019, to May 10, 2020, is near or above normal across the country except in the Badakhshan province where it is 85 percent of normal.
    • Below average snow depths persist at higher elevations in the eastern and northeastern parts of the country. Snowmelt is in the concluding stages of their seasonal cycles in most basins across the country except in the Khulm, Shirin Taghab, Khanabad, Kokcha-Ab_i_Rustaq, and Panj basins where snow water volumes continue to be close to or at record minimum levels (2002-2016).
    • The harvest of the first crop has already begun in parts of eastern provinces. The above average precipitation during late April and early May led to development of rust disease in senescent wheat in certain areas in eastern Afghanistan. The forecast of above average precipitation conditions until the end of May will favor satisfactory planting of second season crops in the country.
    • The risk of flash flooding remains high in the eastern and northeastern basins in view of the forecast of above average temperatures and widespread heavy precipitation in the Baghlan, Samangan, Takhar, Kabul, and Laghman provinces. The risk of landslides also remains high in the northeastern parts of the country.

    UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

    Precipitation anomalies:

    As of May 10, cumulative precipitation is near or above normal across the country except in the Badakhshan province where it is 85 percent of normal. Despite being close to normal at the province level, deficit precipitation is observed in some localized areas in the Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, and Kunduz provinces (Figure 1). Reports indicate that the senescent wheat crop in certain areas in eastern Afghanistan has been affected by rust disease due to excess rains in late April and early May. The above average precipitation from late March through the first week of May has caused flooding damage in parts of Badghis, Faryab, Ghor, Baghlan, Takhar, Badakhshan, Samangan, Kunar, and Parwan provinces.

    Snow depth and snow water volume:

    As of May 12, below average snow depths continue at higher elevations of northeastern and eastern parts of the country (Figure 2). Above average temperatures during April have led to snowmelt at lower elevations in the eastern, central, and southern parts of the country. Snowmelt is in the concluding stages of their seasonal cycles in most basins except in the Kunduz, Khanabad, Kokcha-Ab_i_Rustaq, Panj, and Kabul basins which are in the middle of their annual cycles.

    The above average temperatures from February through mid-March have led to continuous snowmelt during this period in Shirin Taghab, Sari Pul, and Khulm basins. As a result the snow water volume curves are concluding three to four weeks earlier than normal. Although above average temperatures also affected the snow water volume in the Farah_Adraskan, Khash_Khuspas, Hari Rod, Bala Murghab_Kushk, Balkhab, Kunduz, Shamal, and Ghazni basins, the above average precipitation from mid-March through the end of April led to late season accumulation in these basins. As a result the snow water volume levels are concluding or expected to conclude as normal. Lastly, the snow water volumes in the Arghandab and Helmand basins that had been shown above average from March to April are currently indicating slightly later than normal conclusion of their seasonal cycle. The snow water volumes in the Khanabad, Kokcha-Ab_i_Rustaq, Panj, and Kabul basins are at record minimum levels as of May 12 (Figure 3).


    FORECAST

    Precipitation:

    The Global Forecast System 7-day total precipitation forecast for the week ending May 19 indicates 30 to 80 mm of heavy precipitation in eastern, northeastern, and central Afghanistan (Figure 4). Dry weather is expected across the country except for heavy precipitation up to 60 mm in the eastern and central Afghanistan in the following week ending May 26.

    Harvest of the first crop has begun in parts of eastern Afghanistan. The forecast of above average precipitation until the third week of May indicates increased water availability for the second crop during its emergence/early vegetative stages during June-July. However, water availability for crop growth between July and September may be affected. The forecast of above average precipitation in the next two weeks may cause more damage to standing crops that are being harvested particularly in eastern Afghanistan.

    Due to the forecast of heavy precipitation over the northeastern parts of the country which already received above average precipitation, there is an enhanced risk of flash flooding in the Balkhab, Khulm, Kunduz, Kokcha-Ab_i_Rustaq, Panj, and Kabul basins in the coming two weeks. The somewhat frequent rain events also increase the risk of landslides in the vulnerable areas of eastern and northeastern Afghanistan. 

    Temperatures:                                                

    The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast for June-August indicates a relatively high probability of above average temperatures in the northern half of the country (Figure 5). The forecast of above average temperatures from June to August is likely to provide extra heat energy essential for the healthy growth of the second crop during this period. The forecast of above average temperatures may also increase the evaporative demands, which might not be met especially in the northern parts of the county where seasonal cumulative water storages from rain and snowmelt are well below normal. 

    Figures Daily progression of snow water volume in million cubic meters in Hari Rod, Helmand, Kunduz, and Sari Pul basins in the 2019/

    Figure 1

    Figure 3

    Source: USGS/NASA

    This is a map of Afghanistan shows blue and green colors covering northeastern parts of the country, indicating a high probab

    Figure 2

    Figure 4

    Source: NOAA CPC

    This map of Afghanistan shows orange and red colors covering the northern half of the country, indicating a high probability

    Figure 3

    Figure 5

    Source: NOAA CPC

    This is a map of Afghanistan with green and blue colors covering most of the country, indicating above average precipitation.

    Figure 4

    Figure 1

    Source: USGS/UCSB

    This is a map of Afghanistan with dark brown colors - indicating below average snow water volumes - covering parts of the nor

    Figure 5

    Figure 2

    Source: USGS/NASA

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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