Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Precipitation anomalies:

Several good successive precipitation events occurred during mid-May across much of central, northern, northeastern, and eastern Afghanistan. While these precipitation events triggered some flash flooding in Balkh and Takhar provinces, spring cumulative precipitation deficits exist in some areas, especially Jawzjan and Faryab provinces (Figure 1a). During the period of March through 30^th of May, the winter seasonal precipitation deficit was reduced due to widespread precipitation in the northeastern and eastern provinces, more than 50 to 200 mm above normal. Seasonal precipitation deficits in the central and western provinces were mitigated to a lesser degree with 25 to 50 mm above normal precipitation during the same time.

As the winter wet season (October—May) is ending, many areas are transitioning to the dry summer with less than 85 percent of normal seasonal cumulative precipitation in northern and southwestern provinces, with some areas in Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, and Nimroz provinces having less than 55–70 percent of normal (Figure 1b).

Snowpack and snow water storage:

Although mid-May precipitation events increased snow depth over some parts of the northeastern mountains (Figure 2), the snow cover has nearly disappeared except at very high elevation in the northeast. While these mid-May precipitation events, coupled with below-average temperature, supported an unusual increase in snow water storage over a few northeastern basins (Figure 3), the snowmelt has ended earlier than normal in most areas. Therefore, lack of available snowmelt water, especially in the southwestern basins, will adversely impact main season (April—May) irrigation and second season crops (Figure 4).   

Temperatures:

Average maximum temperature was well above-normal across the country for an extended period during March and early April. Since then, temperatures have been average to below average. However, they are expected to be well above-average again across the country in the coming months (June—August) (Figure 5). Additional snow at high elevation during mid-May and above-average temperatures raise the potential of flooding in the northeast. 

Forecasts:

The Global Forecast System indicates prevailing dry conditions across Afghanistan during the first two weeks of summer (ending on June 13) (Figure 6). As of the last week of May, the wet season has likely ended in many areas including much of the southwest, west, and northwest. Therefore, the rainfed wheat crop development, especially in the northwest, may experience unfavourable conditions while transitioning to summer.