Atypically high humanitarian assistance needs are increasing as lean season progresses

National

• After a slow start to the October 2021 to May 2022 wet season, precipitation received from late December 2021 to January 2022 has improved the performance of the wet season to date (Figures 1 & 2). Light to moderate but below-average precipitation has continued in February according to CHIRPS prelim data, though cumulative deficits again increased. It should be noted, however, that CHIRPS prelim data has recently been underestimating precipitation amounts relative to CHIRPS final data. Overall, as the winter wet season (October 2021 to February 2022) concludes, cumulative precipitation is now likely near average to above average in eastern and some western areas, though likely remains below average across most of the country (Figure 2).
• Though ground information is limited, it is expected that recent precipitation and improved soil moisture has supported the start of spring planting (expected to continue through April) and normal germination of the winter crop. In most lower elevation areas, winter wheat (mostly irrigated) is at the tillering stage, while crops are in the germinating stage in some mid-elevation central areas and are dormant in higher elevation areas. Key informants report that crops are in normal condition in most areas.
• Despite several declarations that the country’s banking sector will resume normal operations, the central bank of Afghanistan has not been able to normalize the banking system due to liquidity shortages which have prevented the central bank from repaying foreign currency liabilities owed to commercial banks. According to key informants, most people are able to withdraw cash from banks within the set weekly limits, though some banks are experiencing periodic shortages of cash, forcing them to deny payments owed to customers.
• The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) estimates that Afghanistan’s GDP has fallen by about 4 billion USD since the political shift in August 2021, a 20 percent decline from the 20 billion USD recorded in 2020. Due to political and financial instability in the country, a reduction in investment by private sector and humanitarian actors has reduced activity in construction services, other industries, and health care. The ILO estimates that around 500,000 people lost their jobs in the third quarter of 2021. Generally, availability of labor opportunities and wage rates are significantly lower than the same time last year, all over the country, in addition to being at seasonally low levels. According to qualitative information from key informants, some households are expected to be receiving above-average levels of remittances from the diaspora, though increases likely do not exceed increases in living costs in Afghanistan.
• After depreciating from mid-June to January 2022, the Afghani (AFN) recovered 12 percent of its value in the first week of February relative to the USD and remained stable in the second week of February at the national level according to data from WFP, likely at least partially attributed to Taliban selling high amounts of foreign currency in February to support the exchange rate, following the release of half of Afghanistan’s frozen reserve assets. Wheat flour (low quality) prices followed a similar trend, declining 9 percent in the first week of February and remaining stable in the second week of February. However, wheat flour prices remain 31 percent higher than in early August 2021.
• At the national level, demand for labor increased slightly from 1.1 days of work available per week in January, on average, to 1.3 days per week in early February according to WFP. However, labor availability remains below average and, in Kabul, remained at 1 day per week without increase. Unskilled labor wages declined by 2 percent from January to February. Overall, the amount of wheat flour that an unskilled laborer can purchase from working in February (considering availability and wages), on average, increased 20 percent from January to February but remained a full 61 percent lower than the first week of August 2021.
• In rural areas, poor households are likely earning above-average income from labor opportunities associated with poppy cultivation, given increased poppy cultivation this year. This is expected to be supporting income-earning for those who access labor opportunities from poppy harvesting a few times a year across the country—and especially in the southern provinces—particularly given that wage rates for poppy harvesting are higher than for non-poppy agricultural labor.
• Only five hospitals in Afghanistan currently offer COVID-19 treatment, after 33 others have been closed in recent months. Given highly limited health system operations, the country is not able to test for new COVID-19 variants according to WHO. As of February 14, 2022, around 12 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. In February, with 3.2 million vaccine doses in stock, the Ministry of Health launched a vaccination campaign through mosques and mobile vaccine clinics.

• According to revised international forecasts, precipitation during the spring rainy season (March to May 2022) is now expected to be below average across the country. Though impacts depend on the timing and distribution of rainfall, dry conditions early in the spring season could reduce wheat area planted in affected areas, while dry conditions during critical growth stages could reduce wheat yields, particularly in rainfed and downstream irrigated areas. Spring rainfall is especially important this year given lower irrigation water availability (including hydrological drought conditions in some areas) resulting from below-average snowpack and low reservoir levels. Temperatures are generally forecast to be above average, further increasing water requirements.
• Given below-average irrigation water availability and forecast below-average precipitation during the spring season, wheat production is likely to be below-average at the national level, with the greatest concern for deficits in northern rainfed areas. Irrigated wheat production is expected to be near average at the national level, though localized variations are expected. Key informants report that farmers remain concerned for water availability in the coming months when crop requirements increase. In the eastern region, key informants report that high humidity is also increasing the risk that pest and diseases, especially wheat rust, reduce yields. Production of second season irrigated crops—mainly rice, maize, and cash crops—is expected to be below-average due to below-average water availability.
• Despite forecast below-average precipitation, it is expected that poppy production in 2022 will be better than last year given increased cultivation and anticipated continued prioritization of this cash crop. Income from associated labor opportunities and poppy sales is expected to be above-average given increased production and prices, particularly benefiting farmers in Hilmand, Kandahar, and other southern provinces where production is higher, and providing some support to local economies.
• Pasture conditions typically improve from March to May. Given expectations for above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, improvement is expected to be less than normal and pasture conditions are expected to remain below average in many areas. In areas impacted by severe pasture shortages in the spring, poor livestock productivity and body conditions would be likely, and pastoralists’ seasonal income from livestock sales would likely be below average given atypically early selling of livestock at reduced prices.
• Despite revised expectations for gradual depreciation of the AFN supported by continued currency auctioning, prices of food and essential non-food commodities (such as fuel) will likely continue increasing throughout the lean season, beyond what is typical, driven primarily by elevated global energy and grain prices and anticipated supply chain disruptions. Most of Afghanistan’s imported wheat flour comes from Kazakhstan, which sources much of its wheat grain from Russia. As such, disruption to Russian exports and traders’ speculation around rising global prices will likely drive rising export prices in Kazakhstan. Around July, wheat prices are likely to decline slightly with increased supply from the main harvest. However, prices are then expected to continue rising through September.
• In urban areas, typical spring improvement in economic activity and income-earning is likely to be less than normal given reduced investment in the country. In rural areas, increased availability of agricultural labor opportunities associated with the main harvest in April/May is expected to improve income-earning, though this is likely to be constrained by below-average purchasing power among those who hire labor and will further reduce in areas that experience below-average crop and livestock production. Remittances are likely to remain above average, though rising global prices will likely increasingly reduce the ability of Afghans abroad to send money to their families. Overall, income-earning for poor households is expected to remain below average throughout the projection period. According to the UNDP, unemployment in Afghanistan may almost double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent in 2022.
• Given expectations for prices and income-earning, purchasing power for most of the country’s population in both urban and rural areas is expected to remain significantly below average throughout the projection period.
• As the weather warms in the spring, levels of conflict and insecurity are expected to increase in eastern and central areas where IS-K and the National Resistance Front are present.

Localized rural areas

Drought conditions result in significantly below-average crop and livestock production

Poor households in affected rural areas would likely not experience normal seasonal improvements in access to food and income from crop production, labor, and livestock. Some farming households may harvest little or nothing. Livestock production could significantly reduce, and many pastoralist households would likely engage in atypically early livestock sales at lower prices, reducing income earned for the season. Agricultural labor opportunities would be less than anticipated. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes would likely persist in these areas.