Atypically high humanitarian assistance needs are increasing as lean season progresses
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
CURRENT AND PROJECTED ANOMALIES
ZONE |
CURRENT ANOMALIES | PROJECTED ANOMALIES |
---|---|---|
National |
|
|
PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2022
As the lean season progresses through around April 2022, additional households in both rural and urban areas are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes given below-average and seasonally low income-earning alongside significantly above-average prices of food and non-food commodities. In rural areas, more households are expected to exhaust below-average food stocks, becoming increasingly dependent on markets for food, with income insufficient to meet needs. In urban areas, more poor households are expected to exhaust available coping capacity after months of below-average income-earning opportunities and rising prices. As such, poor households across the country will increasingly consume less expensive, less nutritious foods and restrict caloric intake. Among pastoralist households, food and income from livestock products will seasonally increase in the spring. However, in areas where livestock productivity is below-average, food and income from livestock products will likely be below normal, reducing typical improvements in food consumption and dietary diversity for pastoralist households. Atypically early livestock sales at lower prices could start as early as March in areas worst affected by pasture shortages.
A seasonal increase in the prevalence of acute respiratory infections, acute malnutrition, and hunger-related mortality is expected through March, and levels are expected to be higher than normal due to the reduced health system capacity and increased food insecurity in the country. Worst-affected households not receiving assistance are expected to engage in extreme coping and face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with particular concern for drought-affected areas, urban areas, and hard-to-reach highland areas where livelihood options are more limited.
In April/May 2022, the start of the main harvest in lower elevation areas is expected to increase availability of food from own production and increase demand for agricultural labor. This will improve access to food and income for many rural households. However, reduced purchasing power among those who hire labor will likely constrain normal income-earning from labor, and demand for labor will be further reduced in areas where crop and livestock production is below average. In these areas, cash and in-kind payments for agricultural labor will also likely be below normal. However, many poor households are expected to be able to compensate by accessing labor from poppy cultivation, especially in southern provinces. Also around April/May, livestock prices are expected to increase due to high demand associated with Ramadan, supporting access to income for pastoralist households. Additionally, increased food availability from the harvest is expected to lead to a slight decline in staple wheat prices across the country, as is typical, though rising global prices could constrain this. Overall, seasonal improvements in availability of food and income are expected to improve area-level outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in most rural areas around May/June in lower elevation areas and July/August in higher elevation areas (where harvesting starts later, in July). In urban areas, some increases in income-earning will likely support improved food access and outcomes for some poor households in the spring, though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist at the area level. In the June to September period, as prices rise and rural households exhaust resources from the harvest season, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to re-emerge in rural areas worst impacted by below-average crop and livestock production. Throughout the projection period, millions of poor people in both urban and rural areas will remain in need of humanitarian assistance.
Events that Might Change the Outlook
Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario:
Area |
Event |
Impact on food security outcomes |
---|---|---|
Localized rural areas |
Drought conditions result in significantly below-average crop and livestock production |
Poor households in affected rural areas would likely not experience normal seasonal improvements in access to food and income from crop production, labor, and livestock. Some farming households may harvest little or nothing. Livestock production could significantly reduce, and many pastoralist households would likely engage in atypically early livestock sales at lower prices, reducing income earned for the season. Agricultural labor opportunities would be less than anticipated. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes would likely persist in these areas. |
About Remote Monitoring
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.
Region Contact Information
Email: afghanistan@fews.net