Famine Early Warning Systems Network

National

• Precipitation between October and December was generally below average across most areas of the country, with only a few areas receiving average to above-average precipitation. Additionally, snow water equivalent is below average across much of the highlands of the country. 
• Planting is ongoing in the lowlands, while planting activities have ended in the highlands. According to key informants, plantings of both irrigated and rainfed winter wheat are generally below average. Planting was poor due to dry soils from consecutive years of drought and low purchasing power to buy agricultural inputs.
• As is typical during the winter months, the availability of agricultural labor has seasonally decreased across most rural areas of the country. This, coupled with low employment opportunities in the formal and informal sectors, is driving below-average income from labor due to continued poor macroeconomic conditions resulting from reduced foreign investment and spending.
• The number of people migrating to neighboring and Gulf countries continues at higher-than-normal levels, which in turn is driving above-average remittances for households, based on key informant information, including cash transfer agents. However, household income from remittances is not sufficient to make up for the reduction in labor income.
• Despite higher production costs, the livestock sector has been supported by unofficial exports to Pakistan and Iran, where demand has increased in the last two years. According to WFP, at the national level, the price of a one-year-old female sheep in November 2022 was close to the 2021 price and the two-year average.
• Although wheat grain and wheat flour prices decreased slightly compared to last month, prices are still 18 percent and 13 percent higher, respectively, than last year at the same time. Meanwhile, as of November, Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) food basket prices were significantly higher than at the same time last year. In November, the national average sheep-to-wheat terms of trade – a proxy for purchasing power for pastoral, agropastoral, and mixed farming households – was 11 percent below last year and 21 percent below the two-year average. From October to November, the sheep-to-wheat terms of trade were fairly stable in all monitored markets.
• WFP provided assistance – equivalent to 50 to 75 percent of a monthly ration – to at least 12.4 million people in November and 3.5 million people in December, while pre-positioning assistance for an additional 1.5 million people in hard-to-reach areas.

• Based on observed and forecast precipitation, cumulative precipitation for the  October to February winter wet season will most likely be below average in general, though some areas will receive average precipitation. Close monitoring of rainfall distribution is required to determine the impact on wheat production. Cumulative precipitation from March to May 2023, which is important for wheat development and growth, is likely to be average throughout most of the country. 
• Above-average temperatures are expected throughout the current outlook period. The high temperatures put crops such as wheat and stone fruits at risk of early germination and refreezing.
• Livestock prices are expected to be average, although higher than in 2022, mainly due to the expectation of continued demand from neighboring countries and the improvements in water and pasture availability with precipitation in the spring. In some areas where households engage in atypical livestock sales during the winter (December to March), their inability to afford production costs will likely affect livestock salability and market supply, leading to further declines in livestock prices from December to March before typical, seasonal increases in prices occur in April. Additionally, income-earning from livestock sales is expected to be below average in areas where household herd sizes have declined to very low levels.
• On a monthly basis, staple food prices will most likely remain stable through May due to expected normal supply supported by normal imports, as well as lower demand due to high levels of humanitarian assistance. However, food prices are expected to remain above normal due to high global and regional prices and high transportation costs, resulting in lower-than-normal household purchasing power.
• WFP and its partners are expected to provide food assistance throughout the projection period, covering 50 to 75 percent of beneficiaries’ kilocalorie needs. Food assistance distributions are expected to prioritize the areas worst affected by drought. Limited by current funding levels, WFP plans to reach around 11 million people over the coming six months. However, the impact of the ban on female NGO workers on deliveries is yet to be fully assessed.