Food aid remains critical to preventing worse outcomes as winter sets in across the country
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.1 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
ZONE |
CURRENT ANOMALIES |
PROJECTED ANOMALIES |
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National |
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PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY 2023
As food availability and access reaches an annual low at the peak of the lean season in early 2023, humanitarian assistance is expected to prevent worse acute food insecurity outcomes by mitigating the size of food consumption deficits for millions of recipients. However, levels of assistance are expected to be insufficient to fully prevent household food consumption deficits, especially in the highland areas of the country. Millions of people are expected to predominantly rely on markets and food aid, along with some food stocks stored for the winter season, but they will be unable to cover their minimum kilocalorie needs.
As the winter and lean seasons progress, an increasing number of rural households will exhaust their food stocks atypically early due to below-average production in 2022, and they will become increasingly dependent on market purchases. However, market access is expected to be limited both by financial constraints and physical access, given rising food prices during the winter, lower-than-normal purchasing power, and winter conditions that limit population movement. While households are also likely to earn some income from livestock and remittances, these income sources are not expected to be sufficient to compensate for the reduction of other typical sources of food and income resulting from the multi-season drought and economic shocks. Many urban poor households will also increasingly struggle to meet their needs amid high food prices, seasonal declines in labor opportunities, and lower wages. Across rural and urban areas, many will rely heavily on humanitarian assistance and borrowing or selling remaining assets — including livestock — with detrimental impacts on the sustainability of their livelihoods and their coping capacity.
In areas worst affected by drought, including Badakshan, Badghis, Bamyan, Daykundi, Faryab, and Ghor provinces, province-level Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are likely to persist through at least May. Increased levels of acute malnutrition are possible in some areas as households face reduced dietary quality and quantity during the lean season. Households are likely to rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance to prevent worsening food consumption deficits, with only minimal ability to supplement aid through market purchases or available food stocks.
In other areas of the country, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in higher-elevation areas and among households with below-average purchasing power that are unable to stock food for the winter, becoming increasingly widespread across more areas of the country in January/February as household food stocks are depleted. Improvement in acute food insecurity outcomes is not expected to occur until the start of the next harvest. As the harvest and associated labor activities begin in April and May in lowland areas of the country, access to food is expected to slightly improve, driving decreases in the share of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. In higher-elevation areas, the next harvest begins as late as mid-July, which falls outside the projection period for this report.
About Remote Monitoring
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.
Region Contact Information
Email: afghanistan@fews.net