Despite seasonal progress, poor macroeconomy and drought will drive high assistance needs

National

• Typically, farmers plant spring wheat in late March and early April. This year, planting took place earlier in March in many areas, particularly in the northern, northeastern, and northwestern regions, largely due to early March precipitation and above-average temperatures in lower elevation areas since late January. According to key informants, overall planted area for wheat in the 2021/22 season is expected to be below average due in large part to increased poppy cultivation as well as due to farmers’ early concerns about the precipitation season.
• Dry conditions have prevailed from mid-March to mid-April. As of April 15, cumulative precipitation for the entire 2021/22 wet season was below average across most of the country, though near average in some eastern and central areas (Figure 1), and snowpack has been depleted atypically early in many basins. According to key informants, recent dry weather and above-average temperatures are leading to further stress on the rainfed wheat crop. According to satellite data, vegetation conditions across much of the northern rainfed belt are below average, with the northern and northeastern regions worst affected. According to key informants, irrigated crops in some downstream areas are also reportedly experiencing moisture stress but have not been impacted by significant crop damaged to date, while irrigated crops in upstream areas are generally in good condition.
• March precipitation, early snowmelt, and above-average temperatures have facilitated early growth of pasture in many lower elevation areas. In April, pastoralists and agropastoralists moved livestock into spring grazing areas nearly a month earlier than normal. This has likely helped some households to reduce typical reliance on market purchases for fodder in April. Spring livestock births are reported to be generally similar to last year, supported by mild winter temperatures. With spring livestock births, the resumption of livestock milk production in lower elevation areas is supporting access to food and income from livestock products, improving households’ dietary diversity.
• In April, increased demand for agriculture labor has improved access to income, ending the lean season in most lower elevation areas. However, in higher elevation areas, demand for agricultural labor remains limited as these areas are still slowly transitioning from winter to spring.  In areas where poppy is harvested (almost all over the country but especially in Helmand and Kandahar provinces), key informants report that associated labor opportunities have increased significantly since the beginning of April. Wages for poppy harvesting (which lasts for a period of roughly three weeks to one month) are often several times higher than in other sectors, and many communities have become dependent on income from this sector. In urban areas, demand for labor has also continued to increase as is typical in the spring, though remains below average.
• After depreciating from mid-June 2021 to January 2022, the Afghani (AFN) recovered from February to April, likely at least partially due to Taliban selling high amounts of foreign currency. According to data from WFP, the exchange rate improved from 105 AFN/USD in January to 84 AFN/USD by the third week of April, recovering 19 percent of its value and reaching levels similar to the period before the Taliban takeover in August 2021. However, the financial sector remains in crisis, and Afghan businesses continue to face difficulty making and receiving payments for services. This has increased reliance on informal financial services, such as the Hawala system.
• Despite export restrictions announced by Kazakhstan in April, key informants in Afghanistan report no disruptions to typical wheat importation to date.
• After declining somewhat in early 2022 alongside recovery of the local currency, prices of key staple food commodities have continued to increase in recent months despite continued currency depreciation, likely due to rising global prices and transportation costs. According to data from WFP, monthly average prices of wheat flour (low quality) in March 2022 were 31 percent higher than the same time last year.
• Humanitarian assistance continues to be scaled up on a monthly basis and is being distributed in urban and rural areas across the country. According to a non-representative mobile phone survey conducted by WFP from March 5 to April 3, one in five households (21 percent) reported receiving humanitarian food assistance in March. In some regions—such as the west—assistance reached as many as two in five households (43 percent). According to WFP reporting, 18 million people (around half of the national population) are being targeted with assistance under a variety of food, nutrition, and resilience programs in April. According to WFP reporting throughout the month of April, WFP has resumed assistance distributions in Kabul after a period of two weeks, has partially resumed distributions in Kandahar after having been suspended since January 2022, and has resumed distributions in Ghor.
• According to a nutrition SMART survey conducted by UNICEF and partners in the five main cities in January and February of 2022, prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) among children (6–59 months) as measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) and/or oedema was recorded at 7.2 percent in Herat and 5.2 percent in Kandahar, in line with “Alert” levels according to IPC thresholds. GAM prevalence was recorded at 4.9 percent in Jalalabad, 4.7 percent in Kabul, and 4.0 percent in Mazar-e-Sharif, on the border of “Acceptable” and “Alert” levels according to IPC thresholds.
• Most poor households have depleted food stocks and remain highly dependent on market purchases prior to the start of the harvest. Although access to food and income from labor opportunities—including related to poppy production—and from livestock production have increased, many poor households are likely unable to meet their basic needs due to significantly below-average income-earning and above-average prices. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely widespread across most of the country, with worst-affected households likely to be those who have lost their main sources of income, those worst affected by drought in the previous season, returning undocumented migrant workers, and households worst impacted by natural disasters including recent floods and landslides.

• According to international forecasts, precipitation in May 2022 will most likely be below average. Cumulative precipitation for the spring season (March to May 2022) and for the entire winter wet season (October 2021 to May 2022) is expected to be below average across most of the country. Above-average temperatures are most likely to persist across the country through at least September 2022.
• Pasture conditions are expected to improve as is typical through around May, supported by the remainder of the precipitation season. However, given early depletion of snowpack and forecast below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures, pasture conditions will likely deteriorate rapidly and atypically early following this. Northern areas will likely experience the worst pasture conditions. In areas badly impacted by poor pasture conditions and water resources, livestock body conditions will likely deteriorate. In these areas, many livestock will not calve, kid, or lamb normally, preventing typical herd size increases.
• Seasonally high availability of milk and income from the sale of livestock and livestock products will continue to improve food access for rural households through around September in lower elevation areas and will increase beginning around May in higher elevation areas, lasting throughout the projection period.
• Given below-average planted area, below-average snowpack, and forecast below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures until the end of the season in May, wheat production is likely to be below-average at the national level, driven primarily by deficits in rainfed production, which accounts for around a quarter of domestic wheat production, on average, according to historical data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock. Irrigated wheat production is now expected to be below average due to below-average area planted and some reductions in yield in downstream irrigated areas. In rainfed production areas, greatest concern currently exists for the northern and northeastern regions, where key informants report expectations that the wheat crop will be around half of normal levels in localized lower elevations worst impacted by high temperatures in April. However, more information will be available in the coming months, following assessments by partners on the ground planned for May.
• Second season crop production is expected to be below average due to below-average irrigation water availability.
• Poppy production—and associated income from poppy sales and labor opportunities—is expected to be significantly above average due to increased cultivated area—with as much as 80 percent of agricultural area in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar planted with poppy this season according to key informants—and significantly above average prices.
• The exchange rate is now expected to remain generally stable through at least September, supported by the Taliban’s currency auction mechanism.
• Fuel prices are expected to increase along with rising global prices. Transportation costs are therefore expected to increase.
• Given that Afghanistan is among the closest and best export markets for Kazakhstan and Pakistan, Afghanistan is expected to import normal amounts of wheat from these countries despite high global demand resulting from the war in Ukraine. However, export prices are likely to be above-average in these countries.
• Prices of wheat grain and wheat flour are likely to follow seasonal trends, peaking around June before declining through around August due to increased supply from the main season harvests. However, prices are expected to remain above average and increase further relative to average levels through at least September, driven by rising global prices of energy and cereals as well as below-average national production.  
• Access to labor opportunities will increase seasonally through around May, though remain below average due to poor macroeconomic conditions.
• Income from remittances will likely remain above average due to increased need in the country. However, many households dependent on remittances from Iran will likely experience below-average income from remittances due to increased labor migration to Iran which is increasing competition for labor opportunities that are already constrained due sanctions and poor economic conditions in Iran.