Conflict continues to cause new displacement

Conflict continues to cause new displacement in most regions of the country, with the greatest concentration of new displacement in Eastern, Northern and Northeastern regions, where conflict has escalated in late September. The IDP Task Force and UNHCR estimate that 113,553 people were displaced from January to August, 40 percent higher than during the same period in 2014. Most provinces have experienced some displacements, and the IDP Task Force expects that 2015 may have some of the highest levels of conflict-related displacement since 2002, estimating that 324,000 people will be displaced by the end of the year. Newly displaced people who have lost key sources of income are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and will rely heavily on external assistance during the October to March period due to seasonally low levels of employment opportunities during the winter.

In September, the average retail price of wheat flour in the main cities of Afghanistan was 2.4 percent higher than the previous month, but 3.9 percent lower than the same month of last year. However, prices have begun to increase in some markets, especially those heavily dependent on imports. 

Cotton has been badly affected by pest infestations in Balkh Province, with harvests estimated at just 50 to 60 percent of last year. In Hilmand Province, low prices for cotton have led some farmers to abandon cotton farming and engage in other activities.

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook Update for August 2015.