Key Message Update

Precipitation in mid-November is supporting cultivation, though some farmers are still waiting to cultivate

November 2020 to February 2021

November 2020 - January 2021

This map of Afghanistan shows most of the country in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Most of Ghor, Daykundi, and Uruzgan in the central part of the country are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as are some urban areas.

February - May 2021

This map of Afghanistan shows most of the country in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Most of Ghor, Daykundi, Uruzgan, Samangan, Bamyan, Wardak, and Ghazni in the central part of the country and Badakhshan and Nuristan in the northeastern part of the country are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as are some urban areas.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), food prices generally remained stable or slightly decreased between September and October 2020, though prices remain significantly above-average at the national level. Overall, above-average food prices and below-average income earning opportunities are expected continue constraining food access for many poor urban households, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected through May 2021 in the absence of assistance. Meanwhile, above-average livestock prices are generally compensating for above-average staple food prices, supporting pastoralists’ and agro-pastoralists’ ability to procure stocks for the lean season during winter. Most rural households are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May 2021, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in some areas that harvested less. In both urban and rural areas, below-average remittances are also expected to constrain food access for some poor households.

  • After a dry start to the wet season, widespread precipitation of 25 to 50 mm occurred throughout most of Afghanistan in the second dekad of November 2020. This eliminated earlier deficits, with cumulative precipitation now generally average across Afghanistan. Similarly, snow cover and snow depth are also at average levels in higher elevation areas. Cultivation prospects have improved following the recent precipitation, though cold weather and high soil moisture are now delaying cultivation in some areas. Despite this recent precipitation, cumulative precipitation for the 2020/21 season is still forecast to be below average overall, with below-average production anticipated.

  • As of late November 2020, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily has continued to increase, though cases per day are still less than a third of what was reported at the peak of the outbreak in May/June 2020. However, these figures are expected to underestimate the true number of infections due to limited testing. Despite this increasing trend, the government is not expected to resume enforcement of strict lockdown measures during the projection period. The increasing number of new cases in Afghanistan will likely reduce affected households’ ability to earn income while increasing health costs. Meanwhile, increasing cases and preventative measures in other countries in the region—particularly Iran—will likely continue to restrict remittances.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics