Precipitation during October and November has facilitated normal planting of winter wheat

The beginning of the October 2015 to May 2016 wet season has been above average throughout most of the country, with precipitation totals above 140 percent of normal between October 1^st and November 20^th, with the exception of the northeastern region, where precipitation was near average. Above-average precipitation is expected in Afghanistan during the remainder of the wet season, due to the regional impact of the ongoing El Niño.

Above-average precipitation is facilitating the normal planting of winter crops, primarily wheat, which began in October and will continue into December. The planting season is generating typical agricultural labor opportunities for poor rural households just prior to the winter and lean season, although wages are below the five-year average. The precipitation is also supporting good availability of pasture for livestock, which will improve body conditions and may support livestock prices as households prepare to sell some animals to stock cereals for winter. 

Wheat flour prices are 5 to 19 percent above the five-year average in markets monitored, with the exception of Jalalabad, Kabul, and Maimana, where prices are near average. Above-average prices are primarily attributable to the depreciation of the Afghanistan Afghani (AFN) against other currencies since May 2015, including the U.S. Dollar (USD) and Pakistan Rupee (PKR). Wheat imports from Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan are expected to remain within normal ranges, which will help supply the Afghan market throughout the winter and lean season.

Most areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from November until at least March. However, some areas are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the first months of 2016, primarily in the Central Highlands and Northeast regions. Reduced labor opportunities and above-average wheat prices are likely to lead to food consumption gaps for the poorest households. Many households displaced by conflict will also be in need of assistance.