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Below average precipitation, including localized drought, will negatively impact 2018 harvests

  • Key Message Update
  • Afghanistan
  • March 2018
Below average precipitation, including localized drought, will negatively impact 2018 harvests

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Most of the country has received well below average 2017/18 winter snowfall to date, and snowpack in most monitored basins is below-average. This will likely result in below-average snow melt for irrigation during 2018 growing seasons, impacting harvest yields. Below-average rainfall is expected through June, which will also negatively impact rainfed production, the planting for which is underway.

    • Rangeland vegetative conditions during the 2018 spring and summer through to early 2019 are also expected to be below average in most areas due to the below-average cumulative precipitation and above-average temperatures. The poor condition of rangeland and pasture areas will impact the livestock sector and pastoralists may be pushed to excess livestock sales at below-average prices.

    • In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were generally stable between January and February due to stable imports from neighboring countries. There are variations in market prices compared to average, however, across the country. Additionally, with near-surface air temperatures expected to be above average in the coming months, there is a risk of early snow melt and possibly flash flooding if areas receive heavy spring rainfall that coincides with early snow melt.

    • Poor households impacted by drought, conflict, displacement, and weak labor markets remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prior to spring labor opportunities and the sale and consumption of livestock products. Households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present throughout the country. Furthermore, an early start to the 2018/19 lean season is also likely given the impacts the poor 2017/18 precipitation season will have on agricultural and livestock production, and ultimately food access.·        Poor households impacted by drought, conflict, displacement, and weak labor markets remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prior to spring labor opportunities and the sale and consumption of livestock products. Households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present throughout the country. Furthermore, an early start to the 2018/19 lean season is also likely given the impacts the poor 2017/18 precipitation season will have on agricultural and livestock production, and ultimately food access.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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