Assistance needs remain due to widespread conflict and poor staple production in some rainfed areas

Insecurity and conflict, which have increased in recent years and have remained widespread in 2017, continue to threaten lives and livelihoods of civilians and have caused the displacement of nearly 170,000 people this year through June 15th. Many displaced households have lost normal sources of food and income and are in need of humanitarian assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely for recently displaced households through at least January 2018.

Due to prolonged periods of dryness during the spring and high June temperatures in north, northeastern, western, and central highlands regions, pasture conditions are worse than normal for this time of year, adversely impacting pastoral households in these areas. Similarly, below-average precipitation and prolonged periods without rain during the spring have led to poor rainfed staple production in some areas, particularly in parts of the north and northeast.

In much of the central highlands and particularly in Bamyan Province, area planted with potato during the 2016/2017 season is reported to have increased compared to the previous year, with improved yields. Harvest expecations are 10 to 20 percent higher than last year. Potato prices are also up from last year by approximately 15 percent, which along with remittances will likely support producer households to stock sufficient food for winter and spring.

Due to favorable weather conditions and a lack of pests, diseases, and periods of frost, fruit production has been better than last year, especially for melon and watermelon production in north and northeastern provinces. Although Afghanistan is exporting approximately 2,000-3,000 tons of fruit per week to Pakistan, Iran, India, and United Arab Emirates, the fruit prices are lower than last year. 

Seasonally stable wheat prices and income from livestock sales and products, along with harvests of wheat, potatoes, fruits, and other crops, are expected to help reduce the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prior to the onset of winter. However, continued displacement due to conflict and related restrictions on livelihood activities will continue to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes among displaced and other conflict-affected households.