Key Message Update

Favorable precipitation likely to facilitate drought recovery for second consecutive season

January 2020

January 2020

February - May 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Many poor households across the country are facing food consumption gaps as households have depleted their food stocks and face difficulty accessing income to purchase food. Many of these households are in the Central Highlands and Northeastern parts of the country with these areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in areas where households have access to remittances or labor opportunities although at below average levels. As winter progresses, more households are expected to rely on markets for food with below average purchasing power. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge across parts of the country.

  • Irrigated winter wheat planting finished in late December/early January across the country at average levels. In some parts of the country, mainly northern and northeastern areas, due to the slightly below average cumulative precipitation, agriculture activities were delayed. Although, it is expected planting will resume once Spring begins in March/April, facilitated by the forecast for average to above average precipitation. In parts of the country, some conflict affected, and displaced households have limited access to crop inputs, limiting their ability to engage in the Spring agriculture season.

  • Average 2019 wheat production and consistent regional and national trade flows of staple foods have contributed to stable prices of most goods across the country.  Current wheat prices across main cities are negligibly higher than the same time last year and the five-year average. Despite average wheat prices, household purchasing power is below average as labor opportunities and wage rates are below normal. This is limiting some household’s ability to purchase food.

  • According to the IOM, since the beginning of January 2020, almost 11,000 undocumented Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan. This is a 20 percent decrease from the same time last year. 700 people have been newly displaced by conflict in January 2020. As many returnees and displaced households move to urban areas in search of labor opportunities, wage rates for labor is decreasing due to above average supply. These populations are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity as they have lost their typical livelihood activities and have limited ability to enter the labor markets.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics