Displaced and host households require continued assistance at least through the end of the winter

Although 2015 agricultural production was generally favorable, several factors are leading to food consumption gaps for affected households as the annual lean season begins, including reduced non-agricultural employment opportunities and wages, as well as the displacement of more than 300,000 people in 2015 due to conflict. These factors have prevented many poor and displaced households from stocking normally for the winter and lean season. Although there are households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in many parts of the country, areas of greatest concern include northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor, Ghor, Helmand, Kunduz, and Nangarhar Provinces.

Although cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2015 to January 15, 2016 was below average, particularly in northeast and southern Afghanistan, snow accumulation and rainfall during the remainder of the wet season through May 2016 is expected to be average, due to the impact of the ongoing El Niño. Typical flooding risk is expected during the spring months.

In December 2015, the national-average sheep-to-wheat terms of trade (ToT), a proxy for purchasing power for pastoral, agropastoral, and mixed farming households, was that the sale of a one-year old live female sheep could buy 230 kilograms of wheat. This was 11.5 percent below the five-year average, but a slight increase of 2.2 percent as compared to December 2014.

Wheat prices were generally above the five-year average in December, but similar to the previous year. For example, in Jalalabad, Maimana, and Mazar-i-Sharif, wheat prices were similar to last year but were above the five-year average by 12, 15, and 20 percent, respectively. In Kabul, there was a 4 percent increase in the price of wheat compared to December 2014, and a 17 percent increase above the five-year average. 

According to WFP, the average number of days of labor available per worker per month was reported at 10 days. The highest number of working days was in Hirat (16 days), followed by Jalalabad (14 days), and Kabul (12 days). In Kandahar, Maimana, Nili, and Mazar-i-Sharif, 8 days of labor were reported. The lowest labor availability was in Faizabad, with just 4 days. On average, casual labor wages have decreased by 20 to 30 percent compared to last year.