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Afghanistan entered the 2012 to 2013 lean season more food secure than last year

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Afghanistan
  • January - June 2013
Afghanistan entered the 2012 to 2013 lean season more food secure than last year

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Areas of Concern
  • Events that Might Change the Outlook
  • Key Messages
    • The lean season started on time in January and even later in some areas because of the above normal 2012 harvest and above normal labor wages over the past year, both of which allowed households to stock more food for the lean season than usual. In a typical year, the lean season can start as early as December and continues until April.

    • Due to unusual losses of livestock in 2011 and early 2012 to extreme cold and lack of fodder, dietary diversity in extreme northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor is getting poorer. As households consume their food stocks, the area is expected to move from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) over February and March. However, by the beginning of April, the area will return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as milk production resumes, access to market improves, humanitarian assistance restarts, and the availability of labor opportunities increases. 

    • The total precipitation from October 1, 2012 to January 20, 2013 has been below the 2002 to 2011 long-term average, particularly in the Northeast and southern Afghanistan. However, the total wet season precipitation is still expected to reach near average by the end of the season. While the forecasts indicate near normal rainfall through June, inadequate or poorly distributed rains during the spring wet season could lead to increasing food insecurity later in the year, especially in the northern, rainfed, wheat-producing areas.

    National Overview
    Current Situation

    Afghanistan has entered the December 2012 to April 2013 lean season more food secure than last year. In a typical year, the lean season starts as early as December and continues until April. This year, the lean season is starting on time or slightly late for much of Afghanistan. During the 2011 to 2012 lean season, many households had low levels of stocks as much of the rainfed grain crop had failed. That year, the gap between production and consumption reached up to two million metric tons (MMT). This year, the well above average 2012 grain harvest, above normal labor wages during the May to September 2012 harvest period, and livestock prices above the five-year average have allowed most households to stock more than they did for the 2011 to 2012 lean season. Even landless households’ economic access to food has improved compared to last year as high demand for agricultural labor during the main May to September harvest brought higher than normal daily labor wages. Households who depend on sharecropping for their food earned more food as in-kind payment or share than last year, particularly in the rainfed areas. Overall, rainfed grain production was 367 percent higher than in 2011 and 42 percent above the five-year average according to the latest estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL).

    Due to adequate irrigation water availability, Afghanistan’s second harvest in September and October 2012 which includes rice, maize, and cotton was also above normal in terms of volume. This harvest provided food, fodder, and income-earning opportunities through labor or cash crop sales in many areas of Afghanistan. However, the cotton price this season was almost half of last year and lower than in other recent years, greatly reducing profit margins. The normal to slightly above normal yields of other crops this year reduced the impact of lower cotton prices, so poor households were still able to find labor opportunities weeding and harvesting cotton or conducting other agricultural labor, locally. While cotton producers were able to employ labor, harvest, and sell their cotton, they were not able to save much, if any income from the sales compared to their costs. The major cotton-producing districts in Afghanistan include Marja, Nadali, Ghramsir, and Hazarjuft Districts in Helmand Province, Charbolak and Balkh Districts in Balkh Province, and Baghlan Jadeed and Baghlan Kuna Districts in Baghlan Province.

    The 2012 potato harvest was also above normal, and early estimates were that the potato harvest would be around 500,000 MT total. Potatoes brought normal to above normal income for producers, particularly in the central highlands where more than 40 percent of Afghanistan’s potatoes are produced.

    In terms of volume, the horticultural harvests in 2012 were slightly below last year. However, prices for many horticultural products were higher than last year, which offset the lower volume of this year in terms of households’ income from horticultural sales. A notable exception to the below average volume of horticultural products was the pomegranate harvest in southern Afghanistan, which was close to a normal volume of fruit. Pomegranate sales are an important source of income for many households, primarily in the southern region, and this year pomegranate sales were near average in terms of income earned.

    As a result of good livestock conditions over the summer and fall and the above normal fodder availability during the start of the winter, the December livestock prices remained higher than the five-year averages in most reference markets. For example, in eastern Afghanistan, a one-year old female sheep sells for an average of 80 percent above the five-year average. In the central highlands, a one-year old female sheep is priced 30 percent above the five-year average.

    The above-normal irrigation water availability throughout 2012, particularly, during the September to December winter wheat sowing period enabled farmers to plant a normal area under winter crops. Planted area for winter crops is one of the earliest indicators of the size of the 2013 grain harvest. In preparation for the September to December 2012 winter wheat sowing period and the 2013 March to May spring wheat sowing period, the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations distributed approximately 20,000 metric tons (MT) of improved wheat seeds to households throughout the country.

    The total precipitation from October 1, 2012 to January 20, 2013 has been below the 2002 to 2011 long-term average, particularly in the Northeast and southern Afghanistan (Figure 3).

    From October to mid-December 2012, temperatures averaged above normal. However, since mid-December temperatures have fallen and often been below their long-term averages (Figure 4). Households who live in temporary shelters or other forms of shelter that lack sufficient heating systems, particularly internally displaced persons (IDPs), have suffered the most. In Kabul, IDPs in the 54 informal settlements are being provided with kerosene in addition to their food rations on a regular basis during these extremely cold temperatures.

    Compared to last year, the December 2012 wheat flour prices are higher in most reference markets, from two percent in Kandahar to 48 percent in Maimana, at least partially reflecting recent rises in international wheat prices, particularly in Kazakhstan where the country sources much of its wheat and wheat flour imports. Prices in Maimana have risen more than in other reference markets due to its high transportation and transaction costs from Mazar and the higher share of imports in the market, following poorer wheat production in Faryab Province than in most other northern areas of Afghanistan. Between December 2011 and December 2012, the wholesale price of Grade 3 wheat with 23 to 24 percent gluten content in Akmola Obalst, Kazakhstan increased by 89 percent in Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) terms. Typically, an increase in international prices translates into a much higher percentage increase in Afghanistan in Afghan afghani (AFN) terms. The higher increase in AFN terms is due both to the high cost of transportation into Afghanistan from source markets and to the typically large volume of Afghanistan’s wheat imports, which places pressure on the AFN as there is high demand for foreign currency to cover import costs. However, in 2012, because of the well above average national cereal harvest, local markets prices increases were not as pronounced as usual (Figure 5).

    Remittances from the Arab Gulf countries are continuing at a normal rate. These are a significant source of income in southern and southeastern Afghanistan. Nevertheless, remittances from Iran are significantly lower than recent years both as fewer migrants are choosing Iran as a labor migration destination and the value of remittances has fallen due to a combination of stagnant wages in Iran and the depreciation of the Iranian rial (IRR) against the Afghan afghani (AFN). The depreciation continues, at least in part, due to the current international sanctions regime. Given the diversity in households’ sources of income in areas that have typically received these Iranian remittances and the significant decline in the number of labor migrants going to Iran due to better local and domestic opportunities, the impacts of these declining remittances on household income is minimal.

    • According to recent forecasts from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University (IRI), the total wet season precipitation is still expected to be near average. There is still plenty of the winter wet season in which current deficits can and will likely be filled and reach near average snowfall totals or snowfall totals sufficient for most spring irrigation needs. The spring wet season is also expected to be near average.
    • According to the current IRI long-term temperature forecast from now until June, above average to average temperatures are likely. While there will likely be cold spells with below average temperatures at various points during the winter and spring, winter livestock deaths in January, February, and March are not expected to exceed their typical range.
    • In case of potential emergencies during the wintertime, affected households will be able to benefit from the Government of Afghanistan’s and aid agencies’ emergency stockpile of food and non-food essentials.
    • The spring flooding season is not expected to involve a level of flooding or an area affected significantly higher than in 2012. From February to April, floods and avalanches will primarily be localized in their impacts. However, similar to in 2012, around 30,000 households could easily be affected in flood-prone areas across the country.
    • International wheat market prices, especially for exports of wheat and wheat flour from Pakistan and Kazakhstan, are unlikely to decrease during the scenario period due to the tight international wheat market. However, wheat prices are not expected to rapidly increase to a level significantly higher than their current levels.
    • Pakistan’s winter wheat Rabi planting was delayed for a month and area planted was slightly below normal due to flooding during the planting period, but an average to above average wheat harvest is still expected from April to May with only a slight delay from usual.
    • Pakistan is expected to continue exporting wheat flour to Afghanistan from January to June with no significant new restrictions on trade.
    • The office of the Prime Minister of Pakistan announced in mid-December that it has no immediate plans to forcibly repatriate the 1.6 million registered Afghan refugees in northern Pakistan between now and June 2013. The announcement was that registered refugees would have their identity cards, which were all scheduled to expire on December 30, extended to allow them to stay until June 2013. This ruling would not affect unregistered refugees or migrants. Iran is also expected to not deport Afghan refugees, but voluntary repatriations from both countries are expected to continue at around the current rate.
    • Afghanistan’s new social safety net programs run by the Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs, Martyrs, and Disabled will continue to function year-round, which will help cover the cash and food needs for qualifying groups including widows, disabled people, and households who have lost a household member in the war. People who have died fighting in the war are locally referred to as martyrs. These survivor and disability benefits will continue, but they are not expected to increase or decrease significantly in value for qualifying households. 
    • Insecurity will seasonally increase as roads become more accessible in March and April after the snow melts. However, the security situation not deteriorate to the extent that private sector trade in goods or usual local and long distance labor migration would be significantly curtailed.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Primarily due to supplies from the well above average 2012 rainfed harvest, most rural households entered the January to April lean seasons with more food stocks than usual. For households that do not grow wheat, have access to land, or grow enough wheat to stock for the lean season, the above average daily labor wages during the harvest enabled purchases of adequate stocks during the October to November stocking period. For many households, these purchases used income from livestock sales with livestock to wheat terms of trade being favorable to households that raise livestock. As a result, poor households are likely to have better than normal food consumption during the January to April lean season. However, dietary diversity will deteriorate as usual as access to fresh milk, vegetables, and fruit seasonally declines.

    For urban poor households who continue to rely on markets during the wintertime from December to March, wheat and wheat flour prices are expected to remain relatively stable, due to the well above average domestic harvest in 2012 and good supply conditions with decreased need for imports across the country. Urban labor opportunities are also expected to be limited, but not more than in a typical year, so market access to food should be relatively stable through the winter.

    By the end of March, much of Afghanistan will start to emerge from the lean season as snow melts, casual, day labor opportunities increase, milk products become available following the spring livestock births, donor-funded economic development activities resume, and construction work restarts. All of these typical livelihood strategies will improve food consumption as households gain income and increase their purchasing power. Also, dietary diversity increases as early vegetables and milk become available. The start of the irrigated grain harvest in May at lower elevations typically leads to a sharp increase in labor demand, and at this point, some households will already start to replenish their stocks for the next season. While the wet season has had a somewhat slow start, the food security impacts of below average rains could be negated by snow later in the season, providing sufficient snowmelt for irrigation. The wet season often starts late or with poor distribution, but later in the winter wet season, snow accumulation erases deficits. Also, the outlook is assuming spring rains will start normally and be distributed in a normal matter with minimal negative impact on typical agricultural activities through either flooding or poor soil moisture. However, if the wet season were to turn out worse than expected, the impacts, especially in areas that depend on rainfed wheat production, could be much worse than projected.

    Food security outcomes are anticipated to be classified at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in the vast majority of areas of Afghanistan for the entire January to June period with seasonally normal conditions expected. However, in actuality, the food security classification following the end of the lean season in March and April will be heavily dependent on normal seasonal progress towards the 2013 grain harvest.

    Areas of Concern

    Extreme Northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor

    Current Situation

    Generally, poor households have gone through half of their food stocks from the July to November harvests by January. However, those households who have no land or very limited land holdings are consuming purchased food stocks, which were purchased during the stocking period in October and November. The purchased food stocks were primarily funded through labor income earned during the summertime, especially during the wheat harvest which is as late as August and September at the higher elevations in Badakhshan. Other households had income from selling livestock. This area’s access to markets drops very low by December, as heavy snowfall decreases trade and limits trips to markets. Households thus, more so than in lower elevation areas of Afghanistan, stock their food in October and November prior the onset of winter. In preparation for the winter lean season, the World Food Program (WFP) distributed more than 2,000 metric tons (MT) of mixed commodities in these areas. According to reports from locals, distributed food supplies were received by around one in ten households in these districts of Badakhshan Province. By January, there are very limited domestic labor opportunities. Most economic activities have stopped for the winter, but between three and five percent population of this area is employed by the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police (ANP). These jobs ensure regular income, including during the food stockpiling period in October and November, but they are also one of the only regular sources of income for households in December and January.

    By January, this area has entered the lean season, and dietary diversity has deteriorated. No fresh milk products are available, and this year, there is a below average quantity of dried qurut and of ghee stocked for this winter. A significant number of poor households lost livestock during 2011 and early 2012. Since then, poor households have not been able to rebuild their herds, so they have likely not stocked as much, if any, dried or other otherwise storable milk products for the winter.

    Due to good livestock fodder availability this year, primarily the result of good rainfed growing conditions, and sufficient pasture resources during the summer (Figure 6), the December livestock prices are between 30 and 40 percent higher than last year when poor conditions left many livestock unsuitable for the market. Livestock in December cost between 10 and 15 percent higher than their five-year averages.

    Temperatures have been below average since October in this area, but this has facilitated snow accumulation. However, the slow start of the wet season has meant that from October to January 20, Badakhshan Province only had an estimated 63 percent of the 2002 to 2011 total average using the RFE2 satellite based precipitation estimate. The precipitation deficit has not yet affected food security as households still primarily depend on economic activities conducted last year. With adequate food stocks from their own production and purchased stocks being still steady and reliable sources of food in January, the current food security outcomes are Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

    • Food stocks from own harvest and purchased stocks are expected to last most households through March.
    • Three to five percent of population is likely to continue working for the Afghan government with the ANA and ANP for the entire January to June period, ensuring steady, uninterrupted income from formal employment for some households.
    • Based on historical data, wintertime avalanches will occur in this region. However, their impacts are likely to remain highly localized, often affecting just a few villages or a single valley.
    • Access to markets will resume by the end of March as snows melt and roads again become accessible to traders and to labor migrants.
    • Livestock prices in Badakhshan will not decrease from their current above-average levels during March and April, and households will sell some livestock this spring for cash at a normal rate.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    This area’s access to markets drops even further by February, as heavy snowfall decreases trade and limits the ability of households to make trips to markets. By February, dietary diversity deteriorates further, as most poor households exhaust their stored supplies of dried qurut and ghee and do not have access to markets to gain more. As a normal trend, food prices are also elevated from October until April as market access is limited by snowfall, but the vast majority of households do not buy any food after the October to November stocking period until March or April with the start of spring. By March, households often exhaust their stocks, and dietary diversity deteriorates further until livestock give birth and milk becomes available in March or April. However, in spring, a variety of income sources become available with the end of the lean season. Planting starts as soon as snow melts, and thus, there is some demand for local labor. Also, as roads reopen, labor migration to other areas is possible. Humanitarian and development assistance resumes in April. With increased movement of goods, local market prices decrease, and access to markets improves. Food security outcomes in extreme northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor will shift from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC phase 2) by February, as household stocks are run down and dietary diversity deteriorates to a diet almost entirely made up of starches. However, by April and May food security outcomes are likely to shift back to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as milk once again becomes available and new births of livestock mean households can also sell livestock without long-term reduction of their herd sizes. While herd sizes may require another year or two to fully recover, they will be in a building and expansion phase, and thus, able to meet all their basic food and non-food needs, primarily with livestock sales, labor income, and their crop production.

    East-Central Mountainous Agropastoral Livelihood Zone

    Current Situation

    In December, the east-central mountainous agropastoral livelihood zone entered the December to April lean season on time. In January, most households are consuming food primarily from their own or purchased stocks, even if they live in market towns. During wintertime, there are very limited local labor opportunities to fund market purchases. However, non-food cash needs are supplied primarily from income earned during the summertime and saved or on money sent by ANA or ANP employees or remittances sent by long-term labor migrants. By January, most households in this zone have consumed half of their food stocks, which come this year primarily from their own harvest. In January, no fresh milk products are available, but dried qurut and ghee are available to many households. This zone’s access to market is getting limited by January because of the heavy snowfall. Due to good fodder availability this year, December livestock prices are 30 percent higher than last year’s.

    Remittances from Iran are estimated to be 40 to 60 percent lower than normal due high inflation in Iran eroding the earnings of labor migrants with higher living expenses and stagnant wages while the Iranian rial (IRR) continues to depreciate against the Afghan afghani (AFN). However, reliance on Iranian remittances has decreased substantially over the past several years (more information is available in Special Report: Rapid Remittance Assessment in Bamyan and Wardak Provinces from September 2012). Thus, the falling remittances are not, currently, affecting access to food or essential non-food goods and services.

    Since the beginning of the wet season on October 1 until January 20, Bamyan Provinces had only received 69 percent of the average 2002 to 2011 total. This is very similar to the amount received by the same time in January 2011 when wet season precipitation totals recovered quickly in February and March 2011 (Figure 7).

    • Irrigation water availability and precipitation are expected to be sufficient for spring cultivation in both irrigated and rainfed areas.
    • Food prices are expected to follow typical seasonal trends, which includes relatively high prices from January to June until the new harvest becomes available. The prices typically peak in April, but after that, they gradually start their decline.
    • Income from government employment is expected to continue, uninterrupted.
    • Access to market is limited during the wintertime from January to March, but it will resume to a higher level of access in late March or early April when the snow starts to melt and roads become more accessible.
    • Humanitarian and developmental assistance in the central highlands will resume by March. 
    • Remittances from Iran will decrease further, but steadily, preventing most households from having suddenly changing income from remittances.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    With having better than the normal food stocks from own production, decent income from potato and livestock sales, and having diversified their sources of income, most households have stocked enough food to last through March. A few households received external assistance before the winter started. The overwhelming majority of households have their own food stocks, primarily consisting of wheat and potatoes. These stocks will be the primary source of food from January until March. After that, livestock births will increase the availability of milk, and supplies from lowland areas will come in as markets reopen. Households will be able to purchase food on markets due to income from casual labor for planting locally, the resumption of labor migration, and sales of milk and livestock.

    With better stocks, primarily due to the good performance of the rainfed harvest, the overwhelming majority of poor households are likely to be food secure with the area being classified as Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from January through at least June. Nevertheless, those households who rely entirely on remittance from Iran, which continue to fall and are likely to continue falling, may be at the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels due to their reduced income. However, according to recent livelihoods work in the area, the number of such households who are solely relying on remittances from Iran is incredibly small.

    Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and Natural Disaster-Affected Households

    Despite the better than the normal food security conditions across the country, and generally favorable economic conditions in urban areas, conflict continues to displace more households. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are over 486,000 IDPs across the country. Over 126,000 were displaced in 2012. The highest levels of displacement and the highest number of IDPs continue to be concentrated in southern Afghanistan (Figure 8).

    Levels of displacements due to conflict are assumed to remain relatively stable over the winter months of December to March as conflict tends to decrease compared to the warmer months. As IDPs are often in unfamiliar environments, they have not established their livelihoods or found new sources of income following displacement. They typically live in camps though a large number live among a host population either in informal settlements or with the hosts.

    After December, the number of labor opportunities drops in rural areas after winter wheat planting is finished. Competition for urban labor opportunities increases, and IDPs often do not know how to find the opportunities that do exist or lack the more specialized skills for winter labor in urban areas. With limited ability to replace lost sources of income, the newly displaced tend to rely heavily on assistance. They are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from January to June as they will depend heavily on support from host communities and from humanitarian assistance.

    In 2012, around 34,000 households were affected by natural disasters. Flooding and river bank erosion, especially along the Amo River, were the primary natural hazards that affected these households. These households lost their harvests, houses, and sometimes their means of livelihood. They, like IDPs, also tend to rely heavily on external assistance. Thus, the food security outcomes are likely to remain Stressed (IPC phase 1) from January to June for households displaced by natural disasters. The highest levels of food insecurity will be found among the most recently displaced. 

    Events that Might Change the Outlook



    Impact on food security outcomes

    Nationwide/ the northern region

    Poor rainfall from March to June

    If there are inadequate rainfall totals and/or poorly distributed rainfall from March to June, the rainfed cereal crops, primarily wheat, could suffer from moisture stress, resulting in a much smaller, national cereal harvest. Import needs for wheat would increase, and this often results in higher prices for net consuming households, which reduces households purchasing power—both by increasing prices for wheat and wheat flour and by reducing incomes from labor associated with the rainfed harvest. If the rainfall is low enough, pasture conditions can be affected, and as livestock body conditions deteriorate, livestock prices drop. In 2011, when the rainfed crop was well below average, more than one million people required external assistance.

    Nationwide/ the northern region

    Poor snowfall totals in February into March fail to make up seasonal deficits

    If the total snowfall during wintertime is poor, the first irrigated crops, particularly wheat, are unlikely to be affected except in the areas furthest downstream, as most irrigated areas will still have enough irrigation water for the maturation of winter crops. However, in areas at the end of larger irrigation systems, some reduction in yields may occur due to lack of irrigation water. While the irrigated wheat harvest would likely not be substantially affected, the second harvest in September and October and planting for the winter crops from September to December 2013 would be more likely to be adversely impacted as irrigation water availability declined later in the season.

    Western Afghanistan and the central highlands

    Drastic depreciation of Iranian rial (IRR)

    For the few households still dependent on remittances from Iran, food access will deteriorate due to falling income from remittances. This would be especially difficult from January to March when food prices tend to be highest and other income opportunities are more limited, so household have little ability to cope during the wintertime.

    Badakhshan and the

    east-central mountainous agropastoral livelihood zone

    An excessively cold winter with temperatures well below average and above average snowfall volume

    If the winter turns out to be exceptionally cold, conditions for livestock may deteriorate, which could lead to excess livestock mortality. This will impact poor households’ sources of food and income. There would be less fresh milk in the spring which is going to decrease dietary diversity and income from milk sales for funding market purchases of food. Poor households often sell livestock in April to buy food after their own stocks are exhausted and before the subsequent harvest.

    Badakhshan and the east- central mountainous agropastoral livelihood zone

    An excessively cold spring with temperatures well below average in March and April

    Cold temperatures during the kidding, calving, and lambing period in March and April could lead to excess livestock mortality, especially for very young or very old livestock. This impact would be very similar to cold winter temperatures, but losses of younger animals can take many years to replace in the herd.

    Nationwide, but particularly urban households and landless households

    Pakistan bans wheat and/or wheat flour exports

    If Pakistan bans wheat or wheat flour exports, wheat flour prices in Afghanistan can rise dramatically in response. In years with a tight international market and high prices, export bans are more likely. High prices decrease households’ access to food, particularly in the highland areas where the local wheat harvests does not start until September and among market-dependent households in urban areas.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan

    Current food security outcomes, July 2013

    Figure 2

    Current food security outcomes, July 2013

    Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan

    Accumulated precipitation, October 1, 2012 to January 20, 2013

    Figure 3

    Accumulated precipitation, October 1, 2012 to January 20, 2013

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Anomaly of mean daily temperatures for January 11-20, 2013 from 1961-1990 average

    Figure 4

    Anomaly of mean daily temperatures for January 11-20, 2013 from 1961-1990 average

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Wheat flour prices, 2008-2012

    Figure 5

    Wheat flour prices, 2008-2012

    Source: WFP/MAIL

    Rangeland conditions in Badakhshan, eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2010-2013 and 2001-2010 mean

    Figure 6

    Rangeland conditions in Badakhshan, eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2010-2013 and 2001-2010 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Millimeters (mm) of rainfall, estimated using RFE2 in Bamyan Province, 2010-2013 and 2002-2011 mean

    Figure 7

    Millimeters (mm) of rainfall, estimated using RFE2 in Bamyan Province, 2010-2013 and 2002-2011 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    IDPs in January 2013, by region

    Figure 8

    IDPs in January 2013, by region

    Source: UNHCR

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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