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2012 cereal harvest will likely be average.

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Afghanistan
  • April - September 2012
2012 cereal harvest will likely be average.

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  • Key Messages
  • Preface
  • Most-likely food security scenario, April to September 2012

  • Preface

    In April, the Afghanistan Agrometerological Network (Agromet), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) which was assisted by the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance (CHA)  and the Afghan Veterinary Association (AVA),  the World Food Program (WFP), and FEWS NET  conducted a rapid food security assessment all over the country. This month’s Food Security Outlook is a joint FEWS NET, WFP, FAO, and Agromet report that incorporates these findings.

    Key Messages
    • Food security outcomes are expected to generally remain stable throughout the country over the next six months. However, newly displaced households and those who are likely to be flooded from their homes in the Amo River Irrigated Cereals and Oilseed livelihood zone will face higher levels of acute food insecurity. 

    • The 2012 cereal harvest starting in June in Afghanistan is likely to be an average harvest.

    • In anticipation of average harvest and reflecting good pasture conditions, livestock prices have increased up to 100 percent above prices from last year. Daily agricultural labor wages have increased up to 50 percent. Both of these represent improvements in terms of trade for poor agricultural and agropastoral households.

    • Wheat and wheat flour imports to Afghanistan from Pakistan and Kazakhstan are likely to be smooth over the course of 2012. However, trade policies are subject to change. 

    Coverage

    Rapid rural appraisal (RRA) methods sometimes called participatory rural appraisal (PRA) were used in April by analysts from the participating organizations in rural areas of Afghanistan to gather information on current conditions and likely future events. WFP covered 16 provinces. FEWS NET covered 13 provinces, and FAO covered 4 provinces (Figure 2). 

    Current Situation

    Following poor wet season performance during the 2010/11 season, the 2011/12 wet season started earlier than usual in October 2011 with sufficient rains to start planting winter crops early in the season. Conditions were good for both winter wheat and poppy planting from October to December 2011. In some provinces, planted area for winter and spring wheat this year was between 10 and 15 percent below the planted area from the 2010/11 season. Reduction in planted wheat areas was partially due to harsh winter conditions both in December and in the early spring that prevented farmers from planting. However, farmers who did not plant wheat will cultivate higher value cash crops such as cotton, rice, sesame, melon, and chickpeas in anticipation of good water availability and average rainfall during the remainder of the wet season.

    The good start of the season in October was followed by a temporary dry spell in December. However, by the middle of January, snowfall returned to average to above average levels, and it continues in the highest elevation areas of the central highlands and northeastern mountains. While snowfall this winter from late December to March was average to above average in most of western, northern, central, and eastern Afghanistan, it was below average in the Northwest.

    The average to above-average wet season precipitation (Figure 3) has resulted in adequate irrigation water availability throughout most watersheds in the country. However, the very wet conditions prevented some farmers in lowland areas of northern Afghanistan from planting due to the continuity of precipitation and lack of dry days. This was especially true for poorer wealth groups who use oxen instead of renting tractors for land preparation.

    Temperatures over the winter months of December to March were well below normal across the central highlands, the northeastern mountains, and most areas of northern, western, and eastern Afghanistan (Figure 4). The below-average temperatures have resulted in slower than usual growth of wheat, other winter crops, and freshly planted spring crops as the snow melted in March and April. Slow vegetative growth has appeared in both irrigated, rainfed, and rangeland areas, reflected in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values being somewhat below average in March and April in some areas (Figure 5). Also, the reduced area planted effects the NDVI values as much land is still being planted under spring crops. However, the winter wheat crop has generally reached the vegetative stage.  While growth is slow, the crop is developing normally.

    As the lean season ends across Afghanistan from March to June, poor households in agricultural and agropastoral livelihood zones remain highly dependent on market purchases for food, primarily of wheat or wheat flour. These purchases tend to be funded by casual, agricultural day labor for better off households in the area of residence. Agricultural wage rates are reported in most of the country to be much improved since last year. As seasonal progress and irrigation water availability remain good, demand for agricultural labor is seasonally better than normal in most areas. Prices of wheat flour remain relatively flat, so increased agricultural labor wages have led to a significant improvement in agricultural labor to wheat flour terms of trade (ToT) to fund ongoing market purchases. Also, at this time of year, for households with livestock, milk availability increases following livestock giving birth. In some areas in eastern and southern Afghanistan, the early vegetable harvests are already underway in March and April. Increased household access to income from agricultural labor, access to milk and milk products, and access to early vegetables both for consumption and sale, all mean households exit the lean season with greater access to food and to income for market purchases. The Government of Afghanistan and the humanitarian community have provided emergency food assistance to many rainfed areas this winter. Responses are still underway in some provinces. These interventions further improve the access to food for some poor households.

    Eastern Afghanistan (Laghman, Kunar, Nangarhar, Paktya, Khust, and Paktika provinces)

    Compared to the same time last year, livestock prices in April are up to twice as high in local currency terms. This implies a significant improvement in the livestock to wheat flour terms of trade (ToT). As agricultural activities are ongoing and better off households are investing in labor in anticipation of a good season, demand for agricultural labor is seasonally normal. Likewise, the day wages for casual agricultural labor are up to fifty percent higher than last April in the irrigated areas. Both winter and spring wheat planted area is higher than last year except in Nangarhar province where planted area is slightly below last year (Figure 8). The wheat crops are developing slightly slower than normal, but there have been no major outbreaks of crop disease or evidence of water stress in the wheat crop. Many eastern areas grow up to four harvests of vegetables both for local consumption and to supply markets, especially to large urban areas with high demand such as Jalalabad and Kabul. In some areas, the first vegetable harvest which was mostly cucumbers suffered from low temperatures and strong winds, especially in Laghman province. Some of this crop was lost. However, households that grow early vegetables have enough annual income and household food stocks where this shock is unlikely to affect their food consumption or ability to plant for subsequent harvests. Notably, Paktya and some irrigated areas of Paktika do not grow multiple seasons of vegetables are were largely unaffected.

    As the majority of poor households have sufficient and seasonally normal access to food and income, these areas are classified as No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1). In Sherzad and Surkhrod districts of Nangarhar province, around 500 hectares (ha) of land have been washed away by spring flash floods in late April. Households affected by this flood are going to receive assistance, but they are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) incorporating the assistance they are receiving. 200 households have been displaced over the last two weeks to Asadabad city in Kunar province due to conflict. This population is receiving assistance, and they also depend on assistance from the host community. These internally displaced persons (IDPs) are also classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    Central-Eastern Afghanistan (Wardak, Kabul, Parwan, Kapisa, and Panjshir provinces)

    Similar to eastern Afghanistan, livestock prices and labor wages have increased above the levels of last April in anticipation of an average to above-average wheat harvest and reflecting good planting conditions for spring crops. Better off households are continuing to invest in agricultural labor. Labor wages are well above those of last year, and agricultural labor demand is seasonally normal. In Panjshir province, low temperatures in the early part of winter reduced wheat germination rates. Nonetheless, food access in Panjshir province remains seasonally normal, as much of the population receives income from government employment. With seasonally normal and increasing food access, central-eastern Afghanistan is currently classified as No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

    Northeastern Afghanistan (Takhar, Kundoz, Badakhshan, and Baghlan provinces)

    Agricultural activities resumed in March as winter ended. As a result of adequate moisture for agriculture and better off households making investments in agricultural labor, agricultural labor wages have increased 40 percent from April 2011.

    Agricultural wages have increased poor households’ purchasing power for market purchases. Humanitarian agencies and the Government of Afghanistan have provided assistance to this area which has also increased households’ available food stocks and income. In most areas, milk and milk product availability has improved as livestock have given birth during the February to April period. Casual labor incomes, assistance, and milk availability are providing sufficient access to food for most poor households, most of these regions are classified as No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

    However, in the northernmost areas of Badakhshan province and in the Wakhan Corridor, pastoralists and agropastoralists lost livestock due to the extremely low temperatures this past winter. The poor in these areas have fewer livestock to milk right now, and they likely have run through most of their winter food stocks. These populations are located at a considerable distance from most agricultural labor opportunities with poor access this year due to continued deep snowpack. These areas have relatively poor access to humanitarian programs. As food consumption has likely been impacted by the extended winter, these areas are currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    Northwestern Afghanistan (Blakh, Sar-i-Pol, Jawzjan, and Faryab provinces)

    This region was severely affected by last year’s dry conditions. There was very low wheat production, and many rainfed areas had a near failure of the crop. Other crops were either not planted or gave very low yields. However, the Government of Afghanistan and humanitarian agencies responded in this region. In some parts of the region, emergency interventions are still underway. This year, precipitation in this area has not been as heavy as in other parts of Afghanistan. However, irrigation water remains available, and soil moisture this spring has been enough for planting of spring crops. Winter wheat germinated despite the below average precipitation totals, and the crop is currently in the vegetative stage. Compared to last year, the resumption of normal agricultural activities has led to seasonally normal demand for agricultural labor and labor wages higher than last year. In anticipation of average to above average agricultural production and pasture conditions, livestock prices have increased significantly in this region.

    With access to agricultural labor, milk, and milk products, along with food from humanitarian interventions, the majority of the population is classified as No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1). However, newly displaced populations have had their livelihoods interrupted. Approximately 1,000 households were displaced by conflict and are currently living in camps or with host communities in Sozman Qala district of Sar-i-Pol province. 1,000 households in Qaysar district of Faryab province, 3,000 households in Kharqin and Khamyab districts of Jawzjan province, and some households in Shurtipa and Kaladar districts of Blakh provinces have already been displaced in 2012. These populations are receiving assistance, but they still remain classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the severe disruptions to their usual livelihoods. In addition, an unknown numbers of households were affected by flooding last week flood and assessments are underway.

    Western Afghanistan (Hirat, Farah, Nimroz, and Badghis provinces)

    Livelihoods in western Afghanistan depend on crop production, livestock sales, and remittances from Iran. Wheat planting this year has been mixed with some areas increasing planted area and other areas decreasing the amount of land under wheat. The standing wheat crop in Badghdis province not yet reached the vegetative stage. However, agricultural day labor rates and livestock prices have improved over last year. Floods and sandstorms have affected some areas of Hirat, and 300 households have been displaced by flooding in Nimroz province. Some households have reported poor access to agricultural labor opportunities. Some communities have reported a decline in remittances from Iran, but very little information on remittance flows exists. There has been a slight depreciation of the Iranian rial (IRR) against the Afghan afghani (AFN) over the past year. From April 2011 to April 2012, the IRR has lost seven percent of its value in AFN terms. This makes labor wages in Iran and remittances worth slightly less.

    South Afghanistan (Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, and Zabul provinces)

    Last year’s harvest of wheat from May to June and tree crops such as fruits and nuts from August to November was average. Wheat planted area is currently above the previous two years. As agricultural activities are ongoing, demand for agricultural labor is seasonally normal. Labor wages are higher than last year. Livestock prices are also above last year. Most households are carrying on normal livelihood activities and have seasonally normal access to food, so they are classified as No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1). An exception would be the 3,000 households of IDPs who were driven from their homes by conflict in early 2012 and remain in the city of Kandahar. While many IDPs in the South have resettled and found urban livelihood activities or land on which to farm in the province, some of these households continue to live primarily off of humanitarian assistance. The IDPS in Kandahar are currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

    In Zabul province, livestock prices have increased. The seasonal progress of crops and of pasture conditions have been reported to be below average by residents and the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock. However, satellite-derived rainfall estimates indicate above average precipitation over the course of this rainy season, and NDVI values in the rangeland areas are near average. Labor wages have also not increased to the same extent in Zabul and Uruzgan provinces as in other southern areas.

    The central highlands (Bamyan, Day Kundi, Ghazni, and Ghor provinces)

    The population of the central highlands relies heavily on market purchases throughout the year, though they do consume their own agricultural production from August to November or longer in a good year. Also, unlike other areas of Afghanistan, only a single crop can be grown during the season, so for rainfed wheat fields, there is no second planting of fodder, rice, maize, pulses and legumes, or vegetables after the wheat harvest. The primary sources of income to fund market purchases are income from labor migration to Iran and from labor migration inside Afghanistan. The Government of Afghanistan and humanitarian agencies provided assistance last year. Currently, casual labor wage rates within the zone have increased seasonally with the start of agricultural activities within the zone. However, demand for agricultural labor within the zone remains seasonally low. Some households are reporting lower than usual levels of remittances coming in from Iran. This may be the result of the general economic contraction as the size of Iran’s market to sell its oil to the world has been reduced by the international sanctions.

    Crop production and wheat market functioning

    In 2011, the irrigated wheat harvest from May to August in eastern and northern Afghanistan was somewhat below average. The accompanying rainfed, wheat harvest in northern Afghanistan was well below average. However, in January 2011, Pakistan lifted its wheat export ban, and Pakistan had above-average wheat production. Pakistan’s wheat, wheat flour, and rice exports flowed into southern and eastern Afghanistan with few disruptions over the course of the marketing year. In Kazakhstan in August and September 2011, the wheat harvest was a production record, and exports of Kazakh wheat and wheat flour through Mazar brought wheat flour into all primary and secondary markets in northern and central Afghanistan during the period of household stocking from September to December. While local harvests were very poor in some locations, prices for wheat and wheat flour, even in the central highlands, remained relatively stable from August 2011 until the present as commercially imported wheat and wheat flour from Pakistan and Kazakhstan along with humanitarian food distributions kept primary market supplies relatively stable and kept other markets at seasonally normal levels. Prices of key imported foods such as wheat, wheat flour, rice, and vegetable oil remain relatively stable across most primary reference markets. 


    Most-likely food security scenario, April to September 2012

    The most likely scenario for April to September 2012 is premised on the following assumptions:

    • Average rainfall amounts with normal distribution across both time and space will continue for the remainder of the wet season until early June.
    • Spring flooding is assumed to be the same or slightly higher than 2010 levels from May to August, but the impacts will continue to be localized and not affect significant areas of provinces or region. However, flooding and erosion along the Amo River along Afghanistan’s borders with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will be at above-average levels due to above average snowfall in much of Central Asia this winter.
    • On rainfed or irrigated arable land not currently under wheat in northern parts of Afghanistan, farmers have planted or will plant high value cash crops such as cotton, sesame, chickpeas, rice, or melon either while the soil moisture remains adequate for germination or on land with continued access to irrigation water from snowmelt.
    • Following the wheat harvest, seeds and other inputs for the second plantings will remain available at their seasonally usual levels. Only fertilizer will be at a relatively high price during the second planting from June to September 2012.
    • Agricultural, casual day labor rates will remain near their current levels throughout the production season, and demand will remain seasonally normal. Peak agricultural labor demand will be during the wheat harvest in June and during the spring crop harvest in August.
    • In some areas, the wheat harvest may be up to two weeks later than usual due to slow growth and low temperatures in March and April.
    • Military operations and civil insecurity will continue in many parts of Afghanistan throughout the scenario period. Conflict will seasonally increase during the dry season as temperatures rise. However, conflict will not be on a scale to significantly alter the ability of traders to serve markets throughout Afghanistan or that leads to a large number of newly displaced people. Conflict will not significantly alter access or travel routes to high mountain pasture for normal pastoral and transhumant migrations. Resource-based conflict during migration will not be above typical levels.
    • Afghan refugees currently living in Pakistan and Iran will remain in camps or among host populations in those countries.
    • Migrant laborers from Afghanistan in Iran and Pakistan will continue to be able to find some labor opportunities and will provide remittances at normal season times.
    • The March to June Rabi winter wheat harvest in Punjab and Sindh provinces of Pakistan will be average to above average though below last year’s bumper harvest. Pakistan will not institute any new restrictions on wheat and wheat flour trade with Afghanistan.
    • Civil insecurity and lawlessness along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border will not be at high enough of a level to significantly discourage traders or disrupt other normal livelihood strategies.
    • The August to September spring wheat harvest in northern Kazakhstan will be average to below average and far below last year’s bumper harvest. However, ample wheat and wheat flour will still be exported from stocks due to storage constraints as the 2012 crop is harvested. Kazakhstan will not institute additional, new subsidies that drive exports away from the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan and to export via the Baltic and Black Sea ports in Russia and Ukraine. Kazakhstan will not institute trade bans, put in place onerous new export restrictions, or levy export taxes to discourage wheat and wheat flour export to the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan.
    • Humanitarian assistance will be primarily provided to populations displaced by conflict and natural disasters and to the former refugees returning from Pakistan.
    • Outside of extreme northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor, livestock birth rates and milk availability will be seasonally normal. Milk and milk product availability in pastoral and agropastoral areas will peak in April or May though some poor households in southern provinces will continue to have milking animals until December.
    • Prices for livestock and livestock products will follow normal seasonal patterns, remaining at their current relatively high levels until September when they will seasonally decline with the increase in sales as livestock return from high mountain pastures.

    Crop production and wheat market functioning

    Eastern and central-eastern Afghanistan is likely to enjoy their third above-average wheat harvest in row as yields are slowly rising and most of the wheat-growing land has access to irrigation. Many farmers report that they expect that the wheat crop volume will be higher than the previous two seasons. Southern Afghanistan is also likely to have an average wheat harvest in June and July 2012. Northeast and Northwestern Afghanistan are expecting a better harvest than the last year while similar to 2010 which was an average harvest. In northwestern Afghanistan, the current wheat crop status is perceived by farmers to be better than last year and broadly similar to 2010 when the wheat harvest was average. In an average harvest situation, most of the northern population will meet much of their required food through their own production. The landless will meet their food needs through sharecropping, labor wages, and in-kind payments for labor. IN Western Afghanistan, the prospects for the wheat harvest are less clear though national wheat availability is unlike to be affected. Even with an overall likely average to above average harvest, there will be still need for approximately one million metric tons (MMT) of wheat flour imported to provide for the southern and urban food deficit areas. As long as Iran does not procure more than one million metric tons of wheat four from Pakistan, wheat flour prices in Afghanistan are likely to remain stable and imports from Pakistan will meet the demand for wheat flour.

    Northwestern Afghanistan

    In a typical year for the poor wealth group, sharecropping and day labor wages are the primary sources of food and income. This year, sharecropping outcomes should be average as agriculture production is likely to be normal to above normal. However, some larger landlords may try to alter terms of sharecropping arrangements to take advantage of the likely average to above average harvest. Labor opportunities and wages are near average in anticipation of the good harvest. In addition, animal husbandry and livestock sale are other sources of income, and livestock prices are currently much higher than last year. Due to good pasture conditions, animal health is relatively good which resulted in above average milk production. Milk helps cover nutritional needs for households as they emerge from the lean season, and animal prices are relatively high. Livestock sales should improve the poor wealth group’s purchasing power this year. Over the course of coming six months, these sources of income and food are further improving as the harvest is going to take place within a month. Labor wages will increase at this time to their annual peak, and for most agricultural and agropastoral households, the source of food will shift entirely to their own production. Thus, food security outcomes will remain at No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1) over the coming six months.

    Amo River Irrigated Cereals and Oilseed livelihood zone

    The primary source of income and food in the Amo River Irrigated Cereals and Oilseed livelihood zone is agricultural production. However, due to above normal precipitation in most parts of the Central Asia region, flows into the Amo River from snowmelt and rain are above average. The northern parts of this zone are at high risk of erosion. Planted crops, arable land, and residences are likely to be washed away by the Amo River. 3,000 households have already been displaced by erosion this year. More households will be forced to resettle this year due to erosion. Affected households will be displaced from their houses and agriculture lands. Until these households find alternative livelihoods or new land, they will be heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance. Households typically do not lose livestock to erosion, so this source of food or income will likely be available after displacement. For households who choose to resettle  to urban areas, livestock sales for cash will be an important way fund market purchases of food or to rent housing, but this source of income is limited and unlikely to last very long. As a result, the affected households are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) over the coming six month though the majority of this livelihood zone’s population will be classified as No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1) due to the upcoming harvest, good water availability, and average demand for agricultural labor.

    Extreme northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor

    In extreme northern Badakhshan and the Waskhan Corridor, the primary source of both food and income comes from animal husbandry. Livestock in these high elevation regions were significantly affected by the harsh 2011/12 winter. Field reports indicate significant numbers of livestock deaths. In these areas, poor households typically depend very heavily on milk and milk products this time of year. Access to milk and milk products is reduced significantly as result of livestock deaths and poor health over the course of the harsh winter. Arable land is very limited in this part of the country, and production, primarily of potatoes, typically only supplies two to three months of food. During the 2011/12 winter, an above average number of avalanches took place in this region. This cut off road access from the primary markets in the province and continues to isolate these populations. As the harvest of potatoes and vegetables will not be until September and milk availability and access to labor are below average, these areas are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) over the coming 6 months until local food availability starts to improve in August and September.

    Internally displaced persons (IDPs)

    Internally displaced people will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) over the next 6 months. This segment of the population has lost assets, had extreme disruptions to their livelihoods, and will need to rely heavily on external assistance from neighbors, host populations, families, and the humanitarian community. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) current estimate there are 450,000 people who have been displaced by conflict in Afghanistan. As established IDPs gain access to assistance and re-establish their old livelihoods or establish new livelihoods, the classification is primarily for the newly displaced as they have not had time to establish new sources of food and income. Currently, there are 15,000 newly displaced households by conflict, avalanches, and flooding in 2012 (Figure 9). These populations are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for the next six months as they will have unstable access to food and income.

    Table 1. Events, which could change the most likely food security scenario

    Area

    Event

    Impact on food security outcomes

    Northeast and Northwest

    Below normal precipitation during May and June

    Poor precipitation during May-June could lead to a second year of below normal rainfed wheat harvest in the northern regions. Prices might rise across the country, and needs for external assistance would rise in rainfed areas

    Urban Areas

    Pakistan and/or Iran forcibly repatriate Afghan refugees.

    If Iran and Pakistan forcibly repatriate some or all of the five million Afghan refugees, then urban areas would likely have a large supply of surplus labor. Urban wage rates and food security would decline.

    Nationwide

    Iran and Pakistan conduct a fertilizer and iron ore for wheat and rice barter deal.

    Pakistan’s exportable supply of wheat, wheat flour, and rice are substantially reduced and unavailable for export to Afghanistan. Prices for key staples across Afghanistan would rise due to reduced supply.If Iran procures more than 1 MMT of wheat, price rises of imported wheat flour in Afghanistan could be very high.

    Nationwide

    Kazakhstan institutes subsidies that drive its exports to places other than Afghanistan.

    Kazakhstan’s exportable supply of wheat and wheat flour are unable to supplement supply in northern markets. Prices for wheat flour across Afghanistan rise during the later half of the stocking season from October to December after local wheat supplies have been used for stocking.

    Western Afghanistan and the central highlands

    The Iranian rial (IRR) substantially depreciates against the Afghan afghani (AFN)

    Remittances and labor income from Iran decrease household incomes and substantially reduce purchasing power in these regions.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar and Critical Events

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar and Critical Events

    Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan

    Current food security conditions, April 2012

    Figure 2

    Current food security conditions, April 2012

    Source: FEWS NET Afghanistan

    Provinces assessed in April 2012

    Figure 3

    Provinces assessed in April 2012

    Source: WFP, Graphic: FEWS NET

    Accumulated precipitation by province, October 1, 2011 to April 20, 2012

    Figure 4

    Accumulated precipitation by province, October 1, 2011 to April 20, 2012

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Temperature anomaly for the first dekad of March 2012, in degrees Celsius

    Figure 5

    Temperature anomaly for the first dekad of March 2012, in degrees Celsius

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), rainfed, agricultural land, March 21 to April 5, 2012 compared to the same per

    Figure 6

    Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), rainfed, agricultural land, March 21 to April 5, 2012 compared to the same period in 2011

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Percentage change of planted area for wheat from 2011 to 2012 by province

    Figure 7

    Percentage change of planted area for wheat from 2011 to 2012 by province

    Source: WFP, FAO, and FEWS NET

    IDP households displaced in 2012 and classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for April to September

    Figure 8

    IDP households displaced in 2012 and classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for April to September

    Source: FEWS NET

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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