Key Message Update

Precipitation during October and November has facilitated normal planting of winter wheat

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-AF-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The beginning of the October 2015 to May 2016 wet season has been above average throughout most of the country, with precipitation totals above 140 percent of normal between October 1st and November 20th, with the exception of the northeastern region, where precipitation was near average. Above-average precipitation is expected in Afghanistan during the remainder of the wet season, due to the regional impact of the ongoing El Niño.

  • Above-average precipitation is facilitating the normal planting of winter crops, primarily wheat, which began in October and will continue into December. The planting season is generating typical agricultural labor opportunities for poor rural households just prior to the winter and lean season, although wages are below the five-year average. The precipitation is also supporting good availability of pasture for livestock, which will improve body conditions and may support livestock prices as households prepare to sell some animals to stock cereals for winter. 

  • Wheat flour prices are 5 to 19 percent above the five-year average in markets monitored, with the exception of Jalalabad, Kabul, and Maimana, where prices are near average. Above-average prices are primarily attributable to the depreciation of the Afghanistan Afghani (AFN) against other currencies since May 2015, including the U.S. Dollar (USD) and Pakistan Rupee (PKR). Wheat imports from Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan are expected to remain within normal ranges, which will help supply the Afghan market throughout the winter and lean season.

  • Most areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from November until at least March. However, some areas are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the first months of 2016, primarily in the Central Highlands and Northeast regions. Reduced labor opportunities and above-average wheat prices are likely to lead to food consumption gaps for the poorest households. Many households displaced by conflict will also be in need of assistance.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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