Skip to main content

Badghis Province Stressed (IPC Phase 2) after below-average harvest

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Afghanistan
  • November 2014
Badghis Province Stressed (IPC Phase 2) after below-average harvest

Download the Report

  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through March 2015
  • Key Messages
    • Badghis Province had below-average 2014 production of wheat and other crops and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) at least through March. Some households with fewer livestock and other assets may enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from January to March 2015, as some coping strategies become unavailable.

    • In Khost Province, additional refugees from North Waziristan Agency in Pakistan arrived in November. Refugee and hosting households in Khost and Paktika Provinces are in need of food and non-food assistance during the winter, and are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) at least through March, but only with humanitarian assistance.

    • The majority of rural households are preparing for the winter months with food and income from the average cereals and cash crop harvests. Most areas are expected to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) at least through March. Average to above-average precipitation in November facilitated winter crop planting at a typical time.


    Current Situation
    • Harvests of second season crops such as cotton, rice, maize, and legumes have been completed. However, decreased prices for some cash crops as compared to last year is limiting incomes. For example, farmers in Balkh Province reported a nearly 30 percent increase in cotton yield as compared to last year, but prices are down by AFN 500 to AFN 1,000 per bukhar (224 kilograms), reflecting a five to ten percent decrease. Similarly, pine nuts in the southeastern region have been reported to have better yields than last year, when hail damaged the harvest. However prices are 25 to 30 percent lower, with sluggish trade with Pakistan.
    • During November, much of the country received average to above-average precipitation, facilitating the normal sowing of winter crops, primarily wheat and barley, which is still underway in some provinces. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and Directorates of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (DAILs) are distributing improved wheat seed to thousands of farmers, free of cost through FAO and at subsidized rates through DAIL.
    • Households living in the highlands started procuring food stocks in preparation for road closures and difficulty reaching markets during the winter. Both wheat grain and flour prices have been stable since October in all major markets. Compared to the same time last year, wheat grain prices are up to 13 percent higher in some major markets while wheat flour prices are down in most markets. Livestock prices are similar or higher than last year in most markets in Afghanistan, improving livestock to wheat flour terms of trade (ToT). The ToT for one-year live female sheep to wheat flour increased significantly in some markets between October 2013 and October 2014, including by 47 percent in Faizabad and 24 percent in Mazar. However, it declined in Jalalabad and Kabul, by 11 and six percent respectively.
    • New arrivals of refugees from Pakistan have been reported in November in Khost Province following ongoing aerial bombardments in North Waziristan Agency. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are now more than 283,600 individuals (37,800 households) displaced from Pakistan into Khost and Paktika Provinces of Afghanistan. Food and non-food items such as winter clothes, blankets, plastic mats, and plastic sheets are being provided to some displaced households, particularly in Gulan Camp in Khost Province. Food packages were distributed to 9,784 households in October and to 6,667 households in November. Displaced households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) but only due to the support of local communities and of humanitarian agencies.
    • Internal conflict continues to displace thousands of households in Afghanistan, creating life-threatening concerns and food access problems. As of the end of October 2014, over 766,500 individuals were profiled as internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Afghanistan, with nearly 146,700 displaced during the last 12 months. These recently displaced households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) where food and non-food items have been delivered, while most newly displaced persons who have not received humanitarian assistance are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
    • In Badghis Province, below-average precipitation in March and April and cold weather during crop vegetative stage led to a below-average harvest. World Vision Afghanistan carried out a rapid assessment in four districts of Badghis Province where dry conditions were previously reported by Badghis DAIL. According to the assessment, respondents reported more than 50 percent reduction in yields. Households have responded by selling productive assets including livestock, taking loans to buy food, and migrating to the central district and other provinces in search of casual labor opportunities. Similarly, World Food Program (WFP) reassessed Badghis Province, with findings reflecting that both rainfed and irrigated cultivated area are similar to last year. Daily agricultural labor wages decreased by AFN 50 to AFN 100 as compared to last year while sheep prices are down AFN 1,500 to AFN 2,000 per head compared to a year earlier. Badghis Province is Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as households employ atypical strategies to procure basic food and non-food items.

    Updated Assumptions

    The assumptions used in FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for October 2014 to March 2015 remain unchanged.  


    Projected Outlook through March 2015
    • Most rural households are preparing for the winter months with food and income from the average cereals and cash crop harvests that have concluded. Households living in the highlands will stock basic food and non-food items for the coming winter, and it is expected that the lean season will have normal duration in the highlands.
    • With average precipitation forecast for November and December, winter planting is expected to take place normally. Wheat grain prices may experience seasonal increases during November and December as households stock food for the coming winter. While wheat flour prices will increase seasonally in the winter months, normal flows of wheat flour from Pakistan are expected to prevent atypical increases.
    • In Badghis Province, poor households who lost a major portion of their crops will use local coping strategies such as additional livestock sales or migration outside the province. The area is expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through March, while some households with fewer livestock and other assets may enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from January to March, as coping strategies become more limited.
    • Reduced conflict during the winter months may limit additional large-scale displacement. However, those displaced during the past months are in need of food and non-food assistance throughout the winter. Displaced households will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through March 2015 unless they receive humanitarian support in the coming months.
    • Continued support from humanitarian agencies and local communities to Pakistani displaced households is expected to keep most in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through March.
    Figures

    Figure 4

    Source:

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top