Food Security Outlook Update

National wheat production is expected to be greater than the last two years

June 2015
2015-Q2-1-1-AF-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • National wheat production in Afghanistan is likely to be above the last two years, due to relatively favorable weather and precipitation, which has resulted in increased cultivation of both rain-fed and irrigated wheat.

  • The recent winter wheat harvest in Pakistan and the upcoming spring wheat harvest in Kazakhstan are both expected to be sufficient to allow normal trade flows of wheat and wheat flour into Afghanistan, with stability in prices expected.

  • The incidence and severity of spring flooding has been less than last year, and the impact on national cereal harvests is expected to be minimal. However, floods have had significant adverse impact in valleys where they have taken place, particularly in parts of eastern Afghanistan.

  • Although agricultural production is expected to be greater than the last two years, many IDPs and returnees affected by conflict, as well as households affected by natural disasters including flash floods, frost, plant diseases, and pests, will experience acute food insecurity.

  • Although fluctuations in staple food prices have been minimal, reduced labor wages and livestock prices in some areas during the lean season have likely impacted the purchasing power of households who mostly rely on labor and livestock production for income and food access.

  • Please click here to access the 2015 Pre-Harvest Assessment Report, a collaboration of MAIL, WFP, FAO, and FEWS NET.

About this Update

This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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