Famine Early Warning Systems Network

As of April 30, 2,171 people across the country have tested positive for COVID-19 according to Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) reports. Worst-affected parts of the country include Herat and Kabul. Herat shares a border with Iran, and most returning Afghan refugees initially cross through this province. Kabul is the capital of the country and serves as a transit route connecting all provinces. Urban areas in almost 34 provinces of the country have been impacted by reducing access to income and weakening purchasing power due to the COVID-19 lockdown measures. In particular, restrictions on movement have significantly reduced job opportunities in Kabul, Herat, and Nangarhar provinces. Additionally, declining levels of remittances from Iran and gulf countries is further decreasing access to income.

Due to COVID-19, on 14 March 2020 the government of Afghanistan imposed additional control measurements to prevent further spread of the virus. These included restrictions on movement within Afghanistan and the closure of main markets. All of the main cities are now partially locked down, with only food vendors and essential services allowed to operate. This has resulted in a significant loss of daily labor opportunities in urban areas, as well as food price increases due to increased domestic demand. The most vulnerable groups are urban poor household’s dependent on daily wage labor, as already limited job opportunities are completely depleted.

Until early February 2020, availability of labor opportunities had been following seasonal trends, with an increase in the availability of labor at the national level in February relative to January (Figure 1). This increase continued in early March. However, the availability of labor opportunities significantly reduced in mid-March, particularly in urban areas following the lockdown of big cities. In the second half of March, the average number of working days available per week for laborers fell to zero in Kabul and significantly decreased in other urban cities of the country.

At the national level, low quality wheat flour prices in March increased 21 percent compared to February according to WFP market monitoring data (Figure 2). Prices in March were 35 percent higher than the five-year average and 28 percent higher than prices at the same time last year. This increase was largely driven by increased demand after 14 March as the government-imposed lockdown measures across the country. Despite the fact that wheat export prices in the key source markets of Kazakhistan, Saryagash, and Pakistan Lahore were stable, rumors of a border closure with Kazakhstan contributed to hoarding behavior in Afghanistan. Between 14 and 17 March, the average price of low-quality wheat flour in main urban cities increased by 10 percent to reach 32 Afghan Afghani (AFN)/kg according to daily WFP price monitoring. Since then, the average price of low-quality wheat flour has reached 35 AFN/kg, with the sharpest increases observed in March. Prices of other commodities such as cooking oil and pulses have continued to increase, particularly in the second half of April.

Wages for casual labor in main urban markets decreased by an average of 4 percent between February and March 2020 – driven by Kandahar and Maimana where wages decreased by over 10 percent – according to WFP data. Average March wages were relatively stable compared to last year and were 7 percent higher than the five-year average. Given that labor wages declined and prices of wheat flour increased, the average terms of trade between casual labor wages and wheat flour significantly deteriorated between February and March, and further deteriorated in April. From March 14 to April 30 – the period of the sharpest decrease following the lockdown – the average terms of trade between casual labor and wheat flour deteriorated by 18 percent.

The terms of trade between livestock and wheat flour deteriorated by 10 percent from March 14 to April 30, mainly due to the increase in wheat flour prices. Despite average livestock body conditions, income earned from livestock and livestock products remains below average due the below-average herd sizes, especially among poor households who are still recovering from the 2017/18 drought.

Levels of remittances from Iran have been declining in recent years to due poor economic conditions in Iran. Due to COVID-19 and the significant increase in Afghan returnees, levels of remittances from Iran have further declined in recent months. Levels of remittances from Gulf countries – especially the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have also been declining in recent years, but no significant decreases have so far been reported due to COVID-19.

Cumulative precipitation from October 2019 to April 2020 has been average to above average across most of the country (Figure 3). Previous precipitation deficits in northern parts of the country have largely been eliminated or have significantly reduced as the result of heavy precipitation in April. Despite the recent above-average precipitation, the snow depth anomalies remained below average at higher elevations in the north and northeast, while above average snow depth persisted in the in the middle and lower elevations of central and southern Afghanistan. From February to mid-March, temperatures were average to below average, slightly delaying the start of the spring rains and the snow melt. This has slightly delayed the growth of vegetation and crops.

Agricultural area planted for wheat in the 2019/2020 production year was overall average across the country. However, area planted for wheat was below average in northern areas due to precipitation deficits; favorable precipitation in April was too late to allow for winter wheat planting. Due to above-average precipitation and above-average temperatures, wheat leaf rust and loose smut diseases were prevalent in most irrigated planted area of local wheat varieties. This can cause significant economic losses to the farmers. In northern rainfed areas where rainfall was below-average to average, there were no signs of wheat rust or loose smut. Official crop estimates provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock are typically available after the pre-harvest assessment in late May.

In the eastern part of the country, farmers are accessing income from the sale of vegetable and fruit crops. In southern Hilmand, Kandahar, Zabul, and Uruzgan, the poppy harvest is complete.

Currently, vegetative conditions are mostly average across the country. Soil moisture is favorable, with water available for irrigation, land preparation, and planting in areas where there are no precipitation deficits. Land preparation activities for the 2020/21 spring wheat season started normally across most of the country as farmers responded to normal spring rains. Thus far, agricultural activities for the spring season have not been significantly impeded by COVID-19 control measures. Most households are currently trying to access seeds – mainly wheat – through all possible means, even purchasing seeds on credit, so as not to miss the agriculture season.

As of April 26, an estimated 265,460 Afghan refugees had returned from Iran in 2020 according to  IOM . This significant increase in the number of returnees has been largely due to the fear of COVID-19 transmission and deterioration in labor opportunities for Afghan refugees. An additional 1,840 and 3,180 returned from Pakistan and other countries, respectively, during this time. Due to limited labor opportunities available in main urban markets and loss of their typical livelihood activities in areas of origin, nearly all these recent returnees are relying heavily on assistance through social networks and domestic welfare charity organizations.

According to UN OCHA, an estimated individuals fled their homes due to conflict across the country April 2020. The largest number of displacements occurred in the eastern provinces where 27,840 people were displaced and the northeastern provinces where 11,400 individuals were displaced. (January-April 2019)

As the lean season progresses, levels of malnutrition typically increase. Based on the results of a nutrition SMART survey conducted in Parwan province by Action Against Hunger (AAH) in February 2020, the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in children aged 6-59 months as measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) was 8.1 percent (5.8 - 11.2 95% C.I.) and prevalence of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) by WHZ was 1.3 percent (0.5 - 3.3 95% C.I.). This is classified as a poor nutrition situation. Given typical seasonal trends as the lean season progresses, levels of malnutrition are expected to be similar or worse in April.

Based on data from the Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC), an estimated 484,000 individual were reached with full rations of humanitarian food assistance in February 2020, with the largest caseload reported for Kabul province (104,800 individuals), followed by Farah (69,000), Balkh (56,400), Kunar (48,900), Khost (48,600), and Badghis (40,500). Since November 2019 when 56,000 individuals were reached nationally, the number of beneficiaries reached per month has steadily increased.

Reduced access to labor opportunities and significantly increased food prices in urban areas are significantly restricting access to food and income in urban areas of the country. Worst-affected households are those dependent on small business/petty trade, remittances, non-agriculture wage labor, and low salary workers in Kabul, Herat, Jalal Abad, Mazar, Kandahar, and other main cities. Given significantly reduced purchasing power and lack of savings, most of these households are expected to be facing food consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. Similarly, the majority of undocumented returnees are expected to be experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes due to limited labor opportunities in main urban markets and loss of their typical livelihood activities in areas of origin.