Central Asia

Central Asia
Food Security Outlook
October 2023 - May 2024
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in northern and urban areas during the lean season
  • Millions of rural households are currently benefiting from the available food and income from the primary and second-season harvests. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in northern areas of the country as well as the central highlands due to poor production in 2023 and lower-than-normal income earned from livestock and labor. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand in the winter months as household food stocks are exhausted, and labor opportunities decrease. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the southern portion of the country, where households have some food stocks for consumption, and income will help cover food consumption deficits. 
  • In early October, Herat Province was struck by three powerful earthquakes. According to OCHA, over 275,000 people were affected. These populations are now living in informal settlements, makeshift tents, and open spaces. Households have started to rebuild their homes and their livelihoods; however, many households lost their winter food stocks, livestock, and/or assets. Furthermore, even if households are able to earn some income, they have challenges accessing food from the market due to low purchasing power. WFP is currently distributing food assistance to over 103,000 people. Overall, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in Herat and expected to persist through the projection period, with some households likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 
  • Due to the likelihood of El Niño conditions persisting through spring, above-average cumulative precipitation is expected for the 2023/24 wet season in Afghanistan. This will facilitate agricultural activities and favor crop development and production—especially in rainfed areas—and pasture is expected to develop favorably, potentially alleviating drought conditions. In the spring, atypically high levels of flooding are expected from March to May in western, northern, northeastern, and central areas of the country due to melting of the likely above-average snowpack, coupled with above-average precipitation and temperatures. The flooding is expected to result in some crop description, displacement, and livestock losses; however, it will also improve the availability of groundwater for irrigated crops. 
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Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (April 2021 - September 2021)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (April 2021 - May 2021) and medium term (June 2021 - September 2021) periods.

Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile April 2021 (.zip) (ZIP) Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification April 2021 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: April 2021 - May 2021 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2021 - September 2021 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: April 2021 - May 2021 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2021 - September 2021 (.kml) (KML) Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (September 2022 - January 2023)

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Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile September 2022 (.zip) (ZIP) Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification September 2022 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: September 2022 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2022 - January 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: September 2022 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2022 - January 2023 (.kml) (KML) Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (June 2020 - January 2021)

Current (June 2020) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (June 2020 - September 2020) and medium term (October 2020 - January 2021) periods.

Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile June 2020 (.zip) (ZIP) Central Asia Acute Food Insecurity Classification June 2020 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: June 2020 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: June 2020 - September 2020 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2020 - January 2021 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: June 2020 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: June 2020 - September 2020 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2020 - January 2021 (.kml) (KML)
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