Supply and Market Outlook

Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook

November 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize, black and red dry beans, and milled rice in Central America from August 2020 to July 2021, 2020/21 marketing year (MY). For the purposes of this report, Central America refers to the countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Mexico and Costa Rica are included given their role in the regional supply and trade.
  • Preliminary regional production estimates suggest that aggregate maize, bean, and rice production for MY 2020/21 is expected to be similar to the previous year and five-year average (Figure 1).  Similarly, MY 2020/21 staple food balances are expected to be near average, with surpluses of maize and beans. However, the region will maintain a large rice import gap (Figure 2) to be filled through well supplied international markets (Annex 5).
  • Seasonal price increases in early 2020 were reinforced by COVID-19 related movement restrictions, the direction of energy prices, currency movements, trade, and domestic support policies, and possible disruptions to supply chains (Annex 4). As of September 2020, maize and bean prices were at average to above-average levels, while rice prices were near average (Figure 3 and Figure 4).  These trends that are expected to persist through the remainder of the marketing year.
  • International import levels, regional trade flows, government policies (COVID-19), and the performance of the upcoming harvests shall be monitored during MY  2020/2021. Climate conditions should be monitored closely ahead of the upcoming postrera/apante seasons, due to above-average rainfall projections that could affect postrera harvest. 
  • Market-based response activities involving maize and substitutes should consider this report’s projected market and trade dynamics.

This Regional Supply and Market Outlook Report summarizes market and price trends in Central America through September 2020, prior to Hurricanes Eta and Iota making landfall in Central America. This analysis will be updated as the impacts of Hurricanes Eta and Iota on M&T activities are better understood for the countries covered by FEWS NET's food security early warning analysis.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics