Supply and Market Outlook

Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

April 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Irregular rainfall in Nicaragua and Honduras led toproduction declines during the primera and postrera 2021 seasons. In Guatemala and El Salvador, overall agroclimatic conditions favored white maize and beans production resulting in above average harvests. In January 2022, rainfall distribution supported near to average apante harvest.

  • Updated white maize regional production is expected atabove average levels; however, aggregated beans harvestwill be close to average in MY 2021/22. Aggregatedregional white maize production will be above the previous year and five-year average levels, while beans and milledrice will remain stable compared to MY 2020/21.

  • Above average maize surpluses are expected in the region(Figure 6). Beans self suffiency will remain average.Regional rice deficit will remain stable and will be fulfilledwith regional and international imports. However, pricevolatility, tighter global cereal supply, and logisticalconstraints will put additional pressure on regional prices.

  • In February 2022, wholesale prices are significantly aboveaverage throughout the region (Figure 2) and expected toremain high due to rising fuel and transportation costs,inflationary trends (Figure 5), and lower bean supply inHonduras and Nicaragua.

  • International prices, inflation trends, and governmentpolicies will influence food prices in the upcoming months.Moreover, rising input costs will affect the performance of2022 primera harvest and should be closely monitored toassess any negative impacts on crop areas and yields in theupcoming MY 2022/23.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics