Supply and Market Outlook

Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

April 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

This report provides an update to Regional Supply and Market Outlook Report that was published in November 2020. It summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize, black and red dry beans, and milled rice in Central America during the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY). For the purposes of this report, Central America refers to Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Mexico and Costa Rica are included because of their role in regional supply and trade. 

  • In Central America, updated production estimates show below average maize and beans production for MY 2020/21 due to crop losses during the harvest season. Below- average postrera and apante harvest in Honduras and Nicaragua resulting from the impact of hurricanes ETA and IOTA in November 2020 decreased bean production, and above average rainfall in El Salvador in primera harvest (2020) led to a decline in white maize production. Regional white maize production will remain close to average, and beans production will be below the previous year and five-year average levels, while milled rice will be above 2020/2021. 
  • The region is expected to have below average maize and beans surpluses. The rice deficit will decrease from above average production in Nicaragua. Imports from regional and international markets are expected to fill domestic supply deficits even as international prices remain above average. Wholesale and retail local bean prices are expected to remain above average during the remaining months of MY 2020/21. Maize prices are expected to remain at average to below average levels. Moderate and progressive economic recovery is anticipated for the remainder of MY 2020/21 with the easing of COVID-19 mobility restrictions and the beginning of immunization programs. 
  • Global reference prices, regional trade, and government policies are expected to influence upcoming harvests and should be monitored through July 2021. Climate conditions also need to be observed as the primera season begins, especially along the Central American Dry Corridor.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics