Special Report

Coffee producer and laborer income to decline for a second consecutive year

February 2014

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Poor households in the highlands of Guatemala and in southern Honduras are resorting to atypical, negative coping strategies as a second consecutive year of reduced coffee harvest and below-average Primera staple grain production limit their income and food stocks. These households will see Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes through the first half of 2014, until the onset of the Primera harvest. In El Salvador and Nicaragua, households will be able to meet food needs by accessing other sources of income, therefore maintaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. Any additional shock could result in a significant deterioration in food security.

  • In Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, coffee production is expected to decline 16 to 32 percent during the 2013/2014 season, compared to 2011/12. In addition, global prices for Arabica coffee in key reference markets have fallen almost 60 percent since their 2011 peak.

  • These two shocks, in addition to the extra maintenance costs associated with the continued coffee rust mitigation efforts, have significantly reduced profits for coffee plantation owners, especially small producers. The size of the 2014/2015 harvest will depend on the ability of producers to invest in inputs, such as fungicides, that control the spread of coffee rust.

  • Producers are hiring fewer unskilled day laborers and paying lower wage rates. In Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala, wages have dropped 14 to 22 percent over the last year. In all four countries, labor demand has declined by 16 to 32 percent compared to 2011/12. As a result, poor households dependent on daily unskilled labor opportunities in the coffee sector are expected to see coffee-related income decrease significantly. Please download the full report to view its content.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics