Key Message Update

Above-average grain harvests improve expected food security in the region

September 2017

September 2017

Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras September 2017 Food Security Projections for September

October 2017 - January 2018

Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras September 2017 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Although there are currently areas in middle and eastern El Salvador, southern and central Honduras, and central Nicaragua with accumulated below-average rainfall, the majority of the region is expecting above-average crop production due to good rainfall distribution. For most small farmers in the arid and marginal areas, the Primera crops this season will represent the only normal maize crop in four years.

  • There was good distribution of rains during the beginning of the Postrera season and forecasts for normal rainfall accumulation until the end of the season are pointing towards good crop development. With two above average grain harvests, it is likely that the majority of the poorest households in the region have stocks that will allow them to cover their basic food needs for the lean season in early 2018.

  • October marks the beginning of seasonal employment for coffee and cane production. Forecasts for these crops indicate normal or above-normal productions levels. These job opportunities will allow day laborers from poor households in areas of the dry corridor to have income for the purchase of basic needs. Areas are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity, particularly households in southern and western Honduras, eastern and western El Salvador, and the North Pacific and north central regions of Nicaragua.

  • Recurrent crop damage and loss caused by droughts over the past four years has resulted in low production yields and reduced seasonal employment for the poorest households. As a result, many of the poorest households have not fully recovered their livelihoods. Households most affected by recurrent drought will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period. Honduras is expected to have the largest Stressed populations.

  • September and October are the most active months in the current cyclone and hurricane season. This means that there is still a risk of pests, disease, as well as flooding and saturation of soils in lower basins and river banks. All of these events could adversely impact some areas with Postrera sowings, and areas where the coffee harvest has started.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics