Key Message Update

Deterioration of conditions in Haiti contrasts seasonal improvements in Central America

November 2021

October 2021 - January 2022

February - May 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In Haiti, sociopolitical instability, erratic rainfall, and high prices are driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in many parts of the country. The depreciation of the gourde against the dollar, high international food prices, and a heavy reliance on imported goods is negatively impacting household purchasing power while households attempt to recover from the August earthquake and tropical depression Grace. In some areas such as Camp Perrin, Maniche, and Pestel, food assistance will enable poor households to meet their food needs therefore they will be Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).

  • In and around Port-au-Prince, criminal activity and kidnappings for ransom as well as fuel shortages have paralyzed economic activity and disrupted transportation, warehouses, businesses, and schools. Meanwhile, in rural areas, the fall crop year is anticipated to be below average due to erratic rainfall and the residual effects of the twin natural disasters on agricultural production.

  • In Central America, broad economic recovery and seasonal improvements in food availability and access across the region are improving outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for most poor households. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will prevail in the Guatemalan and Honduran Dry Corridor, eastern Honduras, the Guatemalan Altiplano, and areas impacted by hurricanes Eta and Iota due to smallholder farmer’s primera crop losses, reduced coffee-related income, and an inability to recover livelihoods following multiple shocks in recent years.

  • During this outlook period, poor rural households are likely to increase the proportion of income that will be allocated to non-food needs due to increased prices for fuel, utilities, and transportation; accumulated debts from the atypically long 2021 lean season; and the recovery of livelihoods in agriculture, tourism, and informal sectors. Rising fuel and transportation costs are likely to reduce earning potential and influence higher food prices, resulting in reduced household purchasing power and an early onset of the 2022 lean season for some households.

  • Markets are likely to remain well supplied and operating normally due to sufficient domestic production and regional imports. Average cumulative rainfall forecasts and resulting average national level postrera and postrera tardía/apante harvests are expected to influence a seasonal reduction in staple food prices. Nevertheless, below-average rainfall in northeastern Honduras is likely to cause crop losses and a below-average postrera harvest for smallholder farmers.

     

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics