Key Message Update

Primera season production is expected to be average to above average

July 2017

July - September 2017

Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras July 2017 Food Security Projections for July to September

October 2017 - January 2018

Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras July 2017 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The regional climate outlook for the period August – October 2017 from the LIII Central America Climate Outlook Forum indicates a likelihood for normal development of the rainy season throughout most of the Central America region, with above-average accumulation in the center of El Salvador (San Salvador, Cuscatlán, La Libertad, Chalatenango), as well as in parts of Nicaragua (Boaco and Chontales). Primera season crops are developing normally, and it is likely that harvests beginning in August will be average to above average in most of the region.

  • The favorable rainfall distribution and seasonal increase in employment opportunities and income beginning in October will permit many poor agricultural households located in the dry corridor to obtain good staple harvests and improve to a situation of Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity, particularly in the south and west of Honduras, east and west of El Salvador, and in the north-Pacific and central-northern regions of Nicaragua. However, it is likely that the poorest households who have been affected by consecutive years of poor production and limited income will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the entire period, with the greatest number of people affected in Honduras.

  • For August through October, cyclonic activity is expected to be above normal, especially in the Caribbean coastal regions of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua. There is an elevated risk of impacts from cyclones or hurricanes, especially in lower valleys and along rivers, which could affect some Postrera production and coffee-producing areas. In the event of impacts from a cyclonic event, the food security situation in affected regions could deteriorate in the short term in the absence of assistance.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics