Remote Monitoring Report

Food insecurity likely Minimal in 2013

November 2012

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In general, Postrera rainfall was significantly better than initially expected nationwide. Near-average national Postrera (mainly red bean) harvests are expected.

  • Poor rainfall was concentrated in surplus-production areas of Olancho and Colón, where the Postrera harvest will be below average. 

  • Acute food insecurity is likely to remain in phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) levels through at least March 2013. The lean season will begin normally in April. 

ZONE

CURRENT ANOMALIES

PROJECTED ANOMALIES

National

  • Postrera rainfall was average to slightly above average for most of the country except surplus production areas of Olancho and Colón.
  • No significant anomalies of concern anticipated.

South (Choluteca,  Valle)

  • Planted area is less than 2011 due to poor Primera harvests.
  • No significant anomalies of concern anticipated.

Western coffee-producing areas

  • Coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than average.
  • Labor demand will likely be above average due to treatment for coffee rust (January – March).

Central Olancho and northern coast

  • Postrera rainfall was significantly below average, field reports and water requirements modeling indicate below-average crop development.
  • Crop yields are likely to be below average.

Projected Outlook through March 2013

The Postrera rains ended normally in late October/early November across the country. Postrera rainfall distribution and cumulative rainfall totals were better than had been anticipated at the start of season, ending up average to slightly above average for most of the country. Water requirement modeling also indicates better crop development than the initial analogue year 2009. However, below-average rainfall and crop development in surplus-producing areas of central and northern Honduras, particularly Olancho, maintain near-average expectations for the national Postrera harvest. Input support and planted areas, though lower than 2010 and 2011, are still generally above the five-year average. Therefore, FEWS NET assumes that the national Postrera harvest is likely to be near the five-year average.

The demand for unskilled labor is expected to be average to above average due to the near-average harvests in labor demand crops. Though the price of coffee has fallen significantly since last year (about 30-35 percent), there are signs of price stabilization, and price levels remain high compared to levels prior to 2010.

Red bean and white maize prices in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula decreased seasonally from September to October and are below last year’s prices. Retail red bean prices are significantly below average (20-40 percent). White maize prices are no more than 15 percent above the five-year average, which is relatively low. Markets are being supplied by Primera production. Prices are expected to follow normal seasonal trends. That is, they are likely to decline or be stable until March 2013 and to rise in April.

Acute food insecurity in Honduras is likely to remain in Phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) throughout the projection period (through March 2013). The lean season will begin normally in April.

South (Livelihoods 5, 8)

Postrera rainfall totals in the South were up to 25 percent above average and relatively well distributed. This is much better than the below-average rainfall anticipated at the beginning of the season. Though the area planted to Postrera crops was below last year due to poor performance of the April-July/August Primera season, the net effect is that the Postrera harvest is likely to be near the five-year average. 

Poor-household food consumption depends on the Postrera harvest between December and March and on purchases between April until the Primera harvest in August. A near-average production and above-average income is likely to lead to a normal start of the lean season instead of an early start as initially expected, maintaining their acute food insecurity in a Minimal level (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) throughout the projection period until March 2013.

Western coffee-producing areas

Coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than the usual and manageable prevalence (10 percent). Spread of the disease usually occurs between February and May and affects production the following year. As such, the current harvest is unlikely to be significantly affected. There is plenty of time for treatment to prevent significant spread of the disease, and no significant damage is expected for future harvests at this time. In addition, FEWS NET estimates that current coffee prices are sufficiently high to support the cost of treatment. The most affected Departments are Ocotepeque, Copán, Intibuca, Lempira, La Paz, and Comayagua.

Central Olancho and Colón

Rainfall during Postrera season was 25 – 50 percent below average, resulting in poor crop development in these surplus-producing areas. Though some rain may continue to fall in November, the damage to date is permanent. The Olancho/Colón Postrera harvest is likely to be below the five-year average. Despite these losses, it is unlikely that 20 percent of the population will be acutely food insecure in this area given that poor households have year-round access to labor opportunities in this area, enabling them to expand the search for labor. 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics