Key Message Update

Households remain in Crisis, with the greatest severity in the Western Highlands

November 2015
2015-Q4-2-1-GT-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The annual lean season will begin early for poor households in the dry corridor, both in the east and the west. These households were affected by significant losses in staple production during the Primera season due to drought caused by the El Niño, as well as reduced income related to the coffee sector, due to damage from coffee rust and the drought, as well as reduced purchase prices for coffee. For the poorest households in the west, the lean season will begin between January and February, two to three months earlier than normal. For poor households in the east, it will likely begin one month early, in March.

  • Households affected by losses upwards of 75 percent during the single staple cropping season in the temperate western highlands, as well as scarce employment opportunities apart from the below-normal labor demand and wages in the coffee and sugar cane sectors, are experiencing more limited food availability and access as compared to the east. Furthermore, these households have limited coping capacity after a full year of applying negative strategies such as consuming seeds and selling productive assets in confronting a prolonged period in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These households are thereby in need of immediate assistance.

  • With near-average Postrera bean harvests except in localized areas, and some casual labor opportunities in various crops, affected areas of the east are experiencing a seasonal improvement in food security outcomes from November, moving from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Household bean reserves will increase, along with cash income, increasing food availability and access until February, when poor households will again begin to enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and will be in need of external assistance.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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