Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The harvest of Postrera crops in the east and the annual harvest in western Highland (altiplano) areas have been underway since November. Crop yields from both of these harvests are expected to be near-average, and above-average in localized areas. These expected outcomes would represent an improvement over the 2016 season, during which farmers experienced large losses due to the erratic rainfall distribution.

The second growing season in surplus-producing areas of the Northern Transversal Strip and Petén got underway in November and is expected to conclude in February/March with near-average harvests, given that seasonal forecasts indicate above-average to average rainfall through March. This will enable households to replenish food reserves for consumption during the following months.

In November 2017, farm-gate price trends for white maize were mixed compared with the previous month and year, but remained below the five-year average. Retail prices were up slightly from October 2017, and unchanged compared to 2016 and the average. Wholesale prices in Guatemala City were generally stable and 5.9 percent below the five-year average. The conclusion of the Primera season harvests and start of the Postrera growing season are behind these mixed price trends. This year’s market glut of maize continues, fueled by informal imports from Mexico. Farm-gate prices for black beans are down from last month and last year due to a slight delay in the harvest for the Postrera growing season, with improved harvests as compared to last year. In most markets, prices are near the five-year average. Wholesale prices on the La Terminal market in Guatemala City are down from last year by 13.8 percent, but remain 11 percent above average. Meanwhile, retail prices remain stable.

The coffee harvest is reaching its peak, as is typical in December and January. This has led to a seasonal increase in labor opportunities and incomes for very poor households. Households dependent on other labor-intensive crops such as sugar cane, melons, tobacco, and vegetable crops in livelihood zones GT06 and GT10 have also experienced a seasonal increase in incomes. There are no reports of any decline in the demand for labor compared with last year.

According to monitoring data compiled by the Ministry of Food and Nutritional Security for “Thousand Day Window” programs (MONIMIL), 15 percent of monitored health facilities were closed in October 2017, which is a slight improvement over the 20 percent reportedly closed in July of the same year. Nevertheless, the closures represent a continuing problem limiting access to health care services for Guatemalan households. There was also some improvement in inventories of medical supplies and drugs compared with the previous monitoring period, though there are still large gaps in supplies of micronutrients and vaccines. The 50 percent shortfall in the supply of ready-to-use therapeutic foods (RUTFs) and the lack of epidemiological records in 27 percent of the monitored health facilities are hindering the treatment as well as the detection and reporting of established cases of acute malnutrition. The latter problem is contributing to the under-reporting of acute malnutrition by the Health Ministry, which reported a cumulative total of 11,889 cases in 2017 as of epidemiological week 48, 1,197 fewer cases than in the same week of 2016.