Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Urban and rural households have been facing heavy transportation costs for two years now. In 2020, passenger capacity on buses was reduced to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic, resulting in higher transportation costs. This was followed in 2021 by significant increases in fuel prices; in keeping with the international trend, these increases have continued during 2022. According to data from the Ministry of Energy and Mines, in March 2022, the price of diesel increased 24 percent compared to the previous month, 68 percent compared to March 2021, and 82 percent compared to the five-year average. Similarly, in March the price of regular gasoline increased 14 percent compared to the previous month, 41 percent compared to March 2021, and 56 percent compared to the five-year average. On April 5, the fuel subsidy law came into force, granting a subsidy of 2.50 GTQ (0.32 USD) on regular gasoline and 5.00 GTQ (0.65 USD) on diesel for two months. However, even with this subsidy, prices remain above the five-year average.

The high price of fuel is reflected in the current cost of food, which has absorbed the transportation costs. Moreover, because of the increased price of public transport, households are traveling less frequently to the markets, where products are cheaper, instead buying in local shops, where prices are higher. The cost of transportation has also impacted the availability of resources for buying food: as the cost of journeys (using private or public transportation) has increased, households have been less able to travel to work, thereby losing daily wages. Moreover, the prices of firewood and propane gas, the two fuels most widely used by households for food preparation, have risen in recent months. Propane gas was subsidized during December 2021 and January and February 2022. The subsidy was suspended in March 2022, but on 1 April an additional grant of 0.80 GTQ/lb (approximately 0.10 USD/lb) was approved for three months. However, the current price is 142 GTQ (18.17 USD), while in January and February it was 122 GTQ (15.61 USD), showing that the subsidy has not had any significant effect.

Although Guatemala is not a direct importer of wheat, maize, or sunflower oil from Ukraine and/or Russia, the suspension of trade affecting these two major producers has begun to impact the global and national market. In March, the price of products included in the basic food basket increased. For example, the price of edible oil increased 3 percent compared to the previous month and 27 percent compared to last year. Affecting urban households in particular, French bread and sweet bread saw price rises of 6 percent and 5 percent respectively, compared to the previous month, and both breads experienced a year-on-year increase of 11 percent. Rural households' staple foods were also affected, with the price of maize- and soy-based nutritional supplements rising by 1 and 9 percent, respectively, year on year, while sugar rose by 9 percent during the same period. Oil, sugar, and maize are staple foods of rural households, while flour-based products such as bread and pasta are consumed more frequently in urban areas. Current prices mean that both rural and urban households are having to spend more on food.

The markets are supplied with corn and beans from previous harvests, as well as from recent harvests in northern Guatemala. Maize is also entering the markets from Mexico, where the April to July maize harvest is expected to be in normal ranges. In March 2022, the price of 100 kg of white maize in the La Terminal wholesale market was 13.4 percent higher than the previous month, 33.4 percent higher than in March 2021, and 49 percent higher than the five-year average. In the same market, the price of 100 kg of beans was stable compared to the previous month, but 11.7 percent higher than last year, and 32.3 percent higher than the five-year average.

Economic activities continue to recover: the new, more-flexible alert system, which increases venue capacity and reduces social distancing measures, has benefited the services and trade sector in particular. One of the sectors most affected by the COVID-19-related restrictions at the national and international levels was tourism, which stopped almost all activity in 2020 and failed to recover in 2021. In March 2022, the Guatemalan government updated the national guidelines for the prevention of COVID-19 in international travel to Guatemala, reducing entry requirements and thus facilitating international arrivals. Although the COVID-19 vaccination campaign has progressed slowly in Guatemala, the level of immunization in other countries has allowed tourism to pick up again. The Easter period is one of the key times of year for the Guatemalan tourism industry. In 2020 and 2021, the sector saw limited activity over the Easter period, but in April 2022 there are already signs of recovery, with an increase in visitors wanting accommodation, food, transportation, and retail services.

In the upper parts of the western Altiplano, the main season for the production of staple grains has begun and farmers have already finished planting. In the other regions of the country, farmers have begun preparing their land, waiting for the first rainy season to start before planting. According to the Guatemalan National Institute for Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH), rains are likely to arrive on time, starting in mid-April in the Boca Costa and southwestern regions of Guatemala. From May onward, they should reach the other regions, with the exception of the Caribbean and the north of the country, where they are expected to start in late May and early June.

Due to high fertilizer costs, many farmers say they intend to reduce the use of these inputs, dilute fertilizers to be able to cover their cropped area, buy low quality alternatives, and/or reduce the cropped area. Any of these actions would reduce the usual harvest volumes. Subsistence farmers, whose cropped area is already small, are likely to be disproportionally impacted by this reduction. Fertilizer prices have been rising since the end of 2021 due to various factors, including declining production of the raw materials in exporting countries, interruptions to international freight transportation, and high fuel costs. Then, in February 2022, global prices soared because of the war in Ukraine. In March, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food, the price of urea rose by 130 percent compared to January 2022 and 149 percent compared to March 2021. Until December 2021, Guatemala was importing over 80 percent of its nitrogen fertilizers (ammonium and urea, which are those most frequently used in the country) from Russia, China, Estonia, and Finland.

For rural households dependent on daily agricultural wages, these months are the hardest because there are seasonal reductions in employment opportunities. Moreover, this year there is less chance than usual of finding a few days' work weeding and planting in the primera cycle. Opportunities are fewer as the households that typically hire workers have high levels of debt, while the high price of inputs is reducing cropped areas and/or the use of fertilizer, with a knock-on effect on the hiring of labor.

As at the twelfth week of the year (March 20–26) the Ministry of Health reported a cumulative total of 6,497 cases of acute malnutrition in children under five years of age. This is an increase of 7.4 percent compared to the previous year. At the national level, the severe acute malnutrition rate is 8.0 per 10,000 inhabitants, an increase of 34.3 percent compared to last year. The five health areas with the highest severe acute malnutrition rates are Escuintla (26.1), Izabal (13.8), Suchitepéquez (13.1), San Marcos (11.8), and Chiquimula (11.1). The five areas with the highest number of severe acute malnutrition cases are Escuintla (239), San Marcos (191), Alta Verapaz (167), Huehuetenango (165), and Suchitepéquez (112).