Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• The primera harvest has begun in Honduras and Nicaragua and staple grains will now flow to markets, increasing their availability both in markets and in the reserves of producing households for the coming months. In September, the proportion of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) gradually decreased, including in Eastern Honduras and in the Honduran Dry Corridor. In October, the harvesting of commercial crops will begin, kicking off the height of agricultural labor demand for the year and improving purchasing power and access to food for the poorest households, even though inflation will remain high. The postrera harvest later in the year will also contribute to these seasonal improvements. Given this, rural areas across the region are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions through January 2023.

• Although staple grain prices are expected to decline next month as the bulk of the harvest hits markets across the region, prices are not expected to return to near-average values. The wholesale price of white maize and red beans in Tegucigalpa decreased 7.0 and 14.5 percent, respectively, as compared to August. In Managua and San Salvador, the prices of both are stable, after having risen for multiple months. However, due to significant price increases in recent months, prices remain well above last year and the five-year average.

• Thanks to adequate rainfall, plantings for the postrera season, which consists mainly of bean crops, are expected to be well established in the coming weeks. Forecasts indicate above-average rainfall through the end of the year, which increases the risk of negative impacts from pests, diseases, and other damages, but impacts to national totals are expected to be minimal.

• In August, although headline inflation remains high, the strong inflationary pressures from earlier in the year have begun to slow down, with Honduras showing lower inflation increases than the previous month for the first time since July 2021. Decreases in the prices of fuel and staple grains helped drive this slowdown. However, the category of food and non-alcoholic beverages within CPI continues to see higher inflation rates, with 14.5, 18.2, and 18.9 percent year-on-year increases in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, respectively.