Key Message Update

Partial economic reactivation insufficient for a significant improvement in food security

July 2020

July - September 2020

Honduras y El Salvador están en fase 3 y Nicaragua está en fase 2

October 2020 - January 2021

Honduras y El Salvador están en fase 3 y Nicaragua está en fase 2

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Honduras and El Salvador have been forced to repeatedly reschedule economic recovery plans and re-confine specific departments to contain COVID-19 cases. An intermittent and delayed opening is expected in the coming months, as the peak of the curve is expected between July and September. The voluntary quarantine of the Nicaraguan population will gradually recede, due to the need for income.

  • Slight improvement in remittances, lower food prices, open and supplied markets, and partial economic reactivation are insufficient to significantly improve access to food for urban and rural households given the accumulated loss of income, particularly regarding informal employment. Despite the season of high demand for casual labor starting in September, the prevailing mobility restrictions could result in lower-than-average incomes for the poorest rural households.

  • A seasonal increase of white maize and beans availability in the markets is anticipated in August, with the flow of an average Primera crop, and close to average Postrera in November. The prices of these two products are expected to decline seasonally, but remain above average, particularly the red beans. Producing households will also see an improvement in food availability.

  • A possible economic opening and seasonal improvements in the availability of food and income will keep most rural and urban households in Stress (IPC Phase 2). Some urban households dependent on the informal economy, as well as rural households in the Honduran dry corridor and the Salvadoran coffee-growing livelihood zone will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), given the deterioration of their response capacity and their livelihoods due to previous negative events and the current COVID-19 context.

  • At the beginning of July, the International Regional Agricultural and Animal Health Organization (OIRSA) issued an alert for the appearance of localized outbreaks of the Central American locust (Schistocerca piceifrons) in Guatemala and Mexico. However, no outbreaks have been observed in the rest of the region and, given early monitoring and surveillance, it is expected that this pest will remain under control, avoiding damage to crops.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics