Key Message Update

Postrera crops, casual labor and expectations for better coffee prices improve food security

January 2020

January 2020

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

February - May 2020

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Postrera maize and beans harvest during November/December 2019 throughout the region will lead to increased supply in the markets of the region, and stable or downward prices at least until the end of January. This will improve the availability and access to food in the poorest households by the beginning of the year 2020.

  • The coffee harvest evolves under normal conditions in the region, generating temporary employment opportunities, mainly for the most vulnerable families, who migrate to the coffee mountain ranges of other departments or to another neighboring country to obtain their income during November to February. The international price of coffee (ICO compound indicative price) as of December 2019, reached the highest value of the last two years (USD cents 117/lb), improving the coffee economy.

  • The well distributed and above-average rainfall registered in December 2019 and during the beginning of the year, allowed the realization of the sowing of Apante in producing areas of the center-north of Honduras and of the RAAN and RAAS in Nicaragua, with possibilities to achieve a good development. The forecast of rains is favorable for the crops of Apante which are expected normal, in the first quarter of 2020.

  • In spite of the First and Postrera harvests at the end of 2019 and the increase in the coffee casual labor, countries are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity due to the losses of Primera and the accumulation of several years of low harvests ; the most vulnerable communities in the region that, due to the deterioration in livelihoods caused by the recurrence to droughts and economic depression of coffee growing, are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics