Key Message Update

Seasonal improvements in income and reserves diminished by high prices

December 2021

December 2021 - January 2022

February - May 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As the season of peak demand for unskilled labor progresses and the postrera harvests conclude, food access and availability, as well as food security, are improving. However, the continuation of high food, fuel, and service prices throughout the region is limiting economic recovery. High prices negatively affect the purchasing power of urban households, non-producing rural households, and rural households who saw reduced harvests and who are depending earlier than usual on the market as a source of food. These households are therefore experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2022.

  • For households in the Dry Corridor and eastern Honduras, rainfall deficits registered during the postrera season are adding agricultural losses to those reported during the primera season, leading to fewer reserves. This, together with lower coffee production due to damage suffered in 2020 as a result of storms Eta and Iota and due to an increase in the incidence of coffee rust disease, will cause Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at least through May 2022.

  • Employment levels in both urban and rural areas will increase seasonally due to an increase in economic activity during the holidays. Activity is fueled in part by the sending of remittances (received mainly by middle-income households) and by the high demand for unskilled labor related to cash crop harvests, such as coffee, sugar cane, and others. Nevertheless, high inflation will not allow a significant recovery of income and livelihoods to offset the shocks suffered in 2020.

  • Although white maize wholesale prices decreased slightly between October and November, they were up 36.4, 23.0, and 70.6 percent in San Salvador, Tegucigalpa, and Managua, respectively, compared to the previous year. On the other hand, red bean wholesale prices increased around 9 percent between October and November in Tegucigalpa and Managua and 19.2 percent compared to 2020 in Tegucigalpa, while they remain stable in the other markets. Behind this anomalous behavior is an increase in inflation, caused by macroeconomic factors, an increase in the cost of transportation and fertilizers, and localized postrera losses.

  • Current forecasts indicate cumulative rainfall to be close to average for the entire region in the coming months, although for central and eastern Nicaragua, cumulative rainfall is likely to below-average, slightly reducing postrera tard√≠a/apante harvests, which arrive February to March.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics