• Fertilizer disruptions linked to events in the Middle East are raising global prices and limiting access, with uneven impacts depending on countries’ import dependence, fertilizer use, and timing within the agricultural season.
• Near-term risks to crop production are highest in parts of Asia and East Africa where disruptions coincide with active planting and fertilizer application.
• Even where direct production impacts are limited, higher fertilizer and energy costs are expected to reduce yields, raise food prices, and strain food access.

Fertilizer gives crops the essential nutrients needed for bountiful harvests that soils alone often can’t provide. 

Without fertilizer, crop yields can decrease dramatically, especially for staple food items like maize, rice, and wheat that people rely on to meet their daily caloric needs.

The Middle East plays a central role in producing and exporting key fertilizer inputs like urea, ammonia, and sulfur, and farmers around the world depend on fertilizer sourced from the region to grow the food they eat and sell for income.

Today, events in the Middle East are disrupting the global supply of fertilizer.

“Fertilizer markets are highly interconnected, and disruptions in major exporting regions like the Middle East can have global consequences,” an analyst with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) said. “Rising energy costs and supply chain constraints can quickly drive up prices and limit access to fertilizer.”

How fertilizer availability affects food production depends on several location-specific factors, like how dependent a country is on imported fertilizer, how much fertilizer farmers typically use, and whether supply or price shocks can be managed, for example, by sourcing fertilizer elsewhere or absorbing higher costs along the supply chain.

Whether this ultimately affects food security depends on other variables, like how much a country relies on their own food production versus imports, and how fertilizer shocks interact with other factors like weather, economic conditions, and conflict.

“The impact of fertilizer shocks depends on many variables, seasonal timing being one of them,” the analyst explained. “Two countries may face similar levels of exposure, but if disruptions align with active planting or fertilizer application periods in one and not the other, the outcomes for production can be very different.”

Instead of simply identifying which countries are exposed to fertilizer supply and price shocks, FEWS NET takes things a step further: Analysts integrate multiple data sources to understand when and how these shocks are most likely to affect farmers and future food production.

Below is an overview of the projected impacts of fertilizer disruptions on agricultural production by region.

Asia: Immediate risks to crop production as fertilizer is applied

Fertilizer-related risks are especially high across Asia, where many countries depend on imported fertilizer to grow staple crops.

According to FEWS NET analysts, crops in Bangladesh are at the highest risk in the near-term, and a drop in agricultural productivity could affect both the food supply and farmers’ incomes. Agriculture in Burma (Myanmar) and Pakistan also faces potential disruptions.

These risks are emerging at a critical time: In several countries, farmers are currently applying fertilizer to key crops like rice and maize. This work typically happens from January to August, meaning disruptions to the global fertilizer supply are occurring during essential stages of crop growth.

“When fertilizer is unavailable or too expensive at these moments, farmers may use less of it, which can lead to lower yields,” the FEWS NET analyst said. “For those that depend on these crops for both food and income, even short-term disruptions can reduce household food availability and earnings in the months ahead.”

Rice, in particular, is an extremely important crop in many parts of the region. If current fertilizer disruptions lead to lower rice yields, millions of households across Asia could be burdened with reduced food supplies and higher food prices in markets.

Other crops, like wheat, follow different seasonal calendars. Because the season for wheat is concluding across most of Asia, fertilizer has already been applied and crops are nearing or at harvest.

However, if fertilizer prices remain elevated or supply levels uncertain, farmers may need to make adjustments to their planting decisions or reduce the use of inputs in the next cycle, which could affect future wheat production.

The use of fertilizer is generally lower across East Africa than in Asia. Still, the region’s reliance on imports and its sensitivity to rising costs means many farmers are vulnerable to even small increases in the price of fertilizer.

A meaningful share of fertilizer imports, especially in Kenya and Sudan, are linked to Gulf suppliers and Iran. Fertilizer use is more intensive in Kenya and Ethiopia, followed by Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania. 

Like in Asia, these risks are emerging during a key period for crop production in some parts of East Africa. FEWS NET anticipates near-term risks to crop production in certain areas where fertilizer disruptions are coinciding with active planting and input use.

“March to September is a critical period for crop production in parts of East Africa, and the risk of direct impacts on production will likely be concentrated where import exposure overlaps with more fertilizer-intensive production,” the analyst said. “We should expect to see varying outcomes, as production risk isn’t evenly distributed across the region.”

Some farmers in East Africa are currently planting and applying fertilizer for key crops like maize. This is an important time for crop establishment and early growth, and disruptions to the global fertilizer supply are likely to have real impacts on how much food farmers are able to produce.

For staple crops like maize and beans, sorghum and millet in drier areas, and cereals like teff and wheat in Ethiopia, farmers may reduce or skip fertilizer applications when prices go up, resulting in lower yields. 

While the scale of production impacts will vary by country, even small declines in yields could reduce household food availability and income in the months ahead.

Southern Africa: Delayed but high-stakes risk for next planting season

Fertilizer use across Southern Africa varies considerably. Some countries use relatively low amounts, while others – including Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe – apply fertilizer at rates above the global median. These countries depend on imported fertilizer from a diverse range of global suppliers.

Although importing fertilizer from places beyond the Middle East helps reduce direct supply risks, current events are driving up prices around the globe, meaning farmers in Southern Africa are still likely to face higher input costs in the future.

Unlike in Asia and East Africa, the timing of the current shock will likely have limited impacts on immediate crop production in Southern Africa. Much of the fertilizer required for the ongoing 2025/2026 agricultural season was already procured before events escalated in the Middle East.

Crops like maize, sorghum, and millet are already in the ground in countries including Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique.

“The situation in Southern Africa is different simply because of the timing of their agricultural season,” the analyst said. “Farmers have already secured and applied most of the fertilizer for this season, which means there will likely be limited immediate impacts. However, if global fertilizer prices remain high during the next procurement period, that’s when we would expect to see effects on planting and production.”

The next key period to watch will be between August and November, when farmers in Southern Africa will work to procure fertilizer for the next planting season.

“If fertilizer remains expensive or difficult to access during that time, farmers may reduce how much they use or delay purchases, which could affect planting decisions and yields for the 2026/2027 season,” the analyst said.

West Africa: Low fertilizer use, high sensitivity for market impacts

The use of fertilizer is generally low across West Africa, so the direct impact of supply disruptions on crop production is likely to be limited.

However, farmers are highly sensitive to price increases, and even modest shocks can cause them to cut back on already limited fertilizer use, leading to smaller harvests.

Across West Africa, fertilizer application typically occurs between May and September for key crops like maize and rice, meaning current price increases are coinciding with active planting and input use. In Nigeria, domestic urea production provides a buffer against external supply disruptions. 

Nonetheless, higher global prices are still expected to affect input costs, particularly for commercial production systems. This could reduce maize and rice yields and lead to potential downstream impacts on market supplies later in the year.

Middle East: Rising risks through import dependence

Fertilizer application rates are relatively high in parts of the Middle East, even though most countries in the region produce only a small share of their staple food needs. 

Instead, they rely heavily on cereal imports, which often account for more than 70 percent of the total food supply. Strategic grain reserves provide some countries with a buffer against short-term supply shocks.

Because of these dynamics, fertilizer supply disruptions are less likely to directly affect food availability through reduced crop production. 

The more immediate risk is through rising energy and trade costs. Higher fuel prices and increased costs for shipping, insurance, and transport can drive up the price of food imports, making it more expensive for governments and households to meet their needs.

These risks are even more pronounced in countries like Syria and Yemen which face prolonged conflict and economic challenges. In both countries, domestic production has already declined, and limited financial capacity constrains their ability to absorb higher import costs.

“Limited access to financing has already reduced farmers’ fertilizer use in countries like Syria over time,” the FEWS NET analyst said. “Rising global fertilizer prices are likely to reinforce this trend, gradually weakening domestic production and increasing reliance on imports at a time when they are becoming more expensive.”

Latin America: Limited supply disruption, growing price-driven risks

Many countries in Latin America, particularly in Central America and in Venezuela, apply fertilizer at rates well above the global median for crop production. While much of this fertilizer is sourced from regions beyond the Middle East, these countries still heavily depend on imports to sustain agricultural output.

Rising fertilizer prices amid higher energy costs and market uncertainty mean farmers across Latin America are likely to face increasing input costs, regardless of where their fertilizer is sourced.

In Central America, these price pressures are emerging during a critical period. Fertilizer is typically procured between April and June, meaning farmers are currently making purchasing decisions for the upcoming production of crops like maize and beans.

“When fertilizer prices increase during procurement periods, farmers may buy less or switch to lower-cost alternatives,” the analyst said. “That can reduce future yields for staple crops and limit income from harvests, particularly for smallholder farmers.”

In South America, timing is pushing the risk further out. Brazil, which is a major global producer of maize and soybeans, typically applies its fertilizer later in the year between September and December. Due to this timing, the most significant production impacts are likely to be delayed, depending on how long elevated prices persist.

While rising prices are already affecting farmers’ decisions in parts of Latin America, the most significant food security impacts are likely to emerge later, as lower production in major exporting countries like Brazil drives up prices in regional markets and affects import-dependent countries into 2027.

FEWS NET will continue to track the impacts of events in the Middle East on global prices and food security.

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