• FEWS NET scientists found that expected El Niño-driven precipitation in Afghanistan did not materialize, with some areas experiencing historically low rainfall and snowpack despite forecasts favoring wetter conditions.
• The persistence of dry conditions, compounded by years of prior drought and rising temperatures, has worsened water scarcity, reduced soil moisture, and heightened risks to agriculture, livestock, and food security.
• Researchers are now analyzing why this low-likelihood outcome occurred and working to improve forecasting methods, including better identification of uncertainty and rare climate scenarios to support more informed humanitarian planning.

FEWS NET scientists investigate why

An El Niño-driven boost in precipitation that was anticipated for Central Southwest Asia has fallen short, with some parts of Afghanistan experiencing historically low levels of rain and snowfall since October 2023. 

While there is still a chance of elevated precipitation through March, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Physical Sciences Laboratory with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), said they were hopeful El Niño would ease water deficits in Afghanistan earlier in the year.

"This area of the world has been dry, and we were hoping for relief this year, and we have not seen relief thus far," NOAA research meteorologist and FEWS NET principal investigator Andrew Hoell said. "The amount of snowpack is at record low levels for this time of year."

El Niño events are associated with above-average precipitation patterns in Central Southwest Asia, while La Niña has the opposite impact, bringing below-average precipitation to the region. These behaviors allow climate researchers to monitor and assess potential seasonal outcomes months in advance. 

Three consecutive La Niña events from 2020-2023 led to below-average precipitation in Afghanistan, while above-average temperatures driven by climate change exacerbated the dry conditions, resulting in a multi-year drought. Despite previous years of climate predictability, during this El Niño event, the unlikely outcome occurred in Afghanistan: instead of the anticipated above-average precipitation associated with El Niño, dry conditions have persisted. 

“All things considered, we made the appropriate forecast. We know that El Niño increases the chances of above-average precipitation in the region,” Hoell said. “Nonetheless, there was still a chance for below-average precipitation, and unfortunately, that low likelihood outcome happened.”

Generally, El Niño events drive below-average precipitation over the western tropical Pacific Ocean and the eastern Indian Ocean over parts of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia and the Philippines. As a result of below-average precipitation in these areas, Hoell explained that El Niño tends to drive a low-pressure area across most of Afghanistan. This low pressure then drives above-average precipitation across the country. 

In a January Key Message Update, FEWS NET explained that cumulative precipitation in Afghanistan from October 2023 to January 2024 remained well below the 40-year average.  

While the current El Niño is waning in strength, which is typical for this time of year, above-average precipitation is still forecast in Afghanistan in spring of 2024. 

Afghanistan relies heavily on cold-seasonal rain and snowmelt as a substantial water source to support water resources, agriculture, and livestock. High temperatures combined with low precipitation have caused any built-up snowpack to melt away, and with water in short supply, livelihoods are dramatically impacted.

"The effect on the ground is pretty profound," Hoell said. "We've had a decrease in soil moisture from where we were even last summer." 

Minimal groundwater from limited precipitation is a major concern for food security in Afghanistan. Three years of drought prompted farmers to extract significant amounts of groundwater for agriculture. Each year, the groundwater sinks deeper, causing reductions in quality and quantity. 

"The recent drought and weather extremes have added another layer of acute food insecurity in all drought-affected areas, especially the areas where they are chronically food insecure,” Mohammad Fahim Zaheer, a FEWS NET regional scientist with the University of California, Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Center, said. 

Climate extremes are one of many drivers of acute food insecurity in Afghanistan. Evolving political and economic turmoil, population displacement, and an influx of returning refugees have reinforced the urgent need for humanitarian aid across the country. 

FEWS NET scientists assess the occurrence of low-likelihood outcomes in Afghanistan

Ground observations are scarce in Afghanistan, and due to the absence of a dense meteorological network, research and weather forecasts are primarily conducted using remote sensing technology that tracks precipitation via satellite. 

The NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory team uses a machine-learning-based technique to make forecasts and determine how El Niño and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) lead to precipitation. This method is one of many used to produce FEWS NET seasonal outlooks. By using all of the available data, scientists like Melissa Breeden can develop forecasts for a variety of outcomes ranging from least to most likely. 

“Conveying forecasts in this manner – as a range of potential outcomes – is important for the long lead times we focus on, given the inherent uncertainty in making forecasts at this timescale,” Breeden said. “Due to the chaotic nature of the earth system, forecasting precipitation three weeks in advance is a different problem than forecasting three days in advance, for example.”

Looking ahead, Breeden and Hoell will focus on pinpointing the key drivers that shape the most probable forecasts for climate trends.

In the case of Afghanistan, they will evaluate why a low-likelihood outcome, such as below-average precipitation, occurred during an El Niño event. They will also consider how to foresee these low-likelihood conditions ahead of time to make more accurate and informative forecasts. 

“A deeper predictive understanding of Afghanistan’s weather and climate will allow us to make more informed forecasts than are currently available to guide scenarios of future food insecurity,” Breeden said. 

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