• The current El Niño is expected to have mixed impacts on global food security, bringing beneficial rains to some regions while causing drought and heat in others.
• Southern Africa and parts of Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to face worsening food insecurity due to poor harvests, reduced water availability, and rising food prices.
• In contrast, increased rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa and Afghanistan is expected to support crop production, improve water access, and ease food assistance needs in the near term.

New El Niño Alert Includes Food Security Projections For 31 Countries

The ongoing El Niño is expected to both positively and negatively affect food security across  the world, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

In a new Alert, FEWS NET explains how some regions will likely benefit from increased rainfall associated with El Niño, while others will be adversely impacted by the effects of below-average rains and high temperatures.

This strong El Niño event, which is forecast to continue gaining strength through the end of 2023 and dissipate by mid-2024, is expected to contribute to high levels of acute food insecurity in certain regions. FEWS NET projections indicate that 105-110 million people across 31 countries will need food assistance through at least early 2024 as a result of conflict, weather, and economic shocks.

While El Niño will likely bring increased rains to some parts of the eastern Horn of Africa and Afghanistan – which will help farmers grow more crops and help herders to feed and water animals that survived the recent drought – concern is high for drought-prone areas of Southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), where unreliable weather threatens farmers’ abilities to successfully grow crops. 

With less locally-produced food available for poor families to consume or sell, purchasing food at the market will become increasingly unaffordable. At the same time, less water availability will reduce people’s access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH).

Growing Food Assistance Needs Expected in Southern Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean

Southern Africa and LAC are likely to bear the brunt of El Niño’s adverse effects, particularly after the August post-harvest period in Southern Africa and during the April-July lean season in LAC.

During previous El Niño years, maize production in Southern Africa has suffered as a result of below-average rains and above-average temperatures, with harvest deficits ranging from 10-15 percent on average, and up to 50 percent during strong El Niño events.

According to FEWS NET, abnormal weather patterns associated with El Niño are likely to result in below-average maize harvests in 2024, which could contribute to increased food prices and exacerbate current levels of acute food insecurity.

A below-average 2024 harvest as a result of El Niño would come on the heels of another poor harvest that occurred in some areas of Southern Africa – including parts of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, and southern Madagascar – as a result of cyclones and irregular rainfall in 2023.

If El Niño generates severe drought conditions, parts of Southern Africa could experience crop failure, livestock deaths, and even higher levels of acute food insecurity than are currently forecast.

El Niño is also expected to disrupt normal weather patterns in areas of Central America where many people rely on growing their own crops to meet their daily needs.  Across the Dry Corridor of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, and in northern Honduras, subsistence farmers are predicted to lose up to 25 percent of their crops, and water availability for human and livestock use is also expected to decline. 

Throughout the LAC region, the combination of lower rains, erratic rainfall distribution, higher temperatures, and decreased seed availability is expected to negatively impact harvests in late 2023 and early 2024. 

Increased Rains Likely to Ease Drought Effects in Eastern Horn of Africa, Afghanistan

The eastern Horn of Africa and Afghanistan – two regions currently suffering from the impacts of prolonged, multi-season droughts – are expected to experience above-average rains that improve water availability and agriculture production, reducing food assistance needs through early 2024.

In most areas of the eastern Horn of Africa, historical data from previous El Niño events suggests that heavy rain will support above-average harvests and increases in livestock reproduction. Heavy rains are also expected to help increase the amount of land that farmers can plant crops on. This helps improve food security by increasing the amount of food that is grown, and by providing opportunities for people to earn income from selling their agricultural labor or harvested crops.

Although increased rains brought on by El Niño are expected to aid drought recovery in some areas of the eastern Horn of Africa, certain low-lying and riverine areas may experience flooding under possible extreme rainfall conditions, which would lead to short-term population displacement, crop damage, and disease, including cholera or malaria among people and Rift Valley Fever among livestock.

In Afghanistan, increased rainfall as a result of the current El Niño is also likely to have positive impacts on water availability and agricultural production, supporting an expected decline in food assistance needs compared to recent years. 

These expected improvements in Afghanistan will come on top of the fact that 2022-2023 wheat production in Afghanistan was more favorable than the preceding two years. Furthermore, staple food prices have generally declined, allowing for improved household purchasing power. Food and income generated from the upcoming 2024 wheat harvest is expected to further improve food availability for millions of households.

FEWS NET will continue to track the ongoing El Niño and provide updates on food security outcomes in the countries and regions it monitors.

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