• The eastern Horn of Africa drought is expected to enter an unprecedented third year, with forecasts pointing to up to six consecutive below-average rainy seasons.
• Food insecurity is already severe and rising, with over 20 million people in need of assistance across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.
• Humanitarian response remains only about 50% funded, raising urgent concerns that needs will continue to outpace aid without a major scale-up in support.

The ongoing drought in the eastern Horn of Africa has already shattered records in terms of its length and severity, and according to a new multi-agency alert, relief is likely not around the corner for the millions of people currently facing starvation in the region.

In a Joint Statement published on November 7, sixteen international organizations called on the global community to immediately ramp up assistance to Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, as forecasts indicate a strong likelihood that the ongoing rainy season and the upcoming rainy season from March-May 2023 will be below average. If both seasons fail to perform, the region will have faced an unprecedented six consecutive below-average rainy seasons.

For two years, food security organizations including the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) have published forecasts and alerts of impending droughts in the eastern Horn, which have all thus far been realized. Consecutive shocks have left little room for relief in communities at risk of acute food insecurity, many of which were still recovering from a 2017 drought.

According to the Joint Statement, an estimated 20.9 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are highly food insecure. FEWS NET estimates the population in need of food assistance will rise further in early to mid-2023, and reach  20-25 million people.

Despite continuous warnings by international organizations over the last two years, drought responses for all three countries remain only 50 percent funded. Contributions by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) account for a majority of these funds, with nearly $1.8 billion dedicated to humanitarian assistance in the Horn of Africa in 2022 alone.

The organizations that signed onto the most recent Joint Statement hope that news of escalating needs and further grim weather forecasts will drive other governments and global agencies to respond appropriately.

“We do not need to wait for an official Famine declaration in any of these countries to warrant action,” Johnson said. “Millions of peoples’ lives are already at risk. Lives will continue to be lost and people will continue to suffer if the drought response continues to be underfunded.” 

History has shown that widespread hunger-related deaths can occur even if the official thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) have not been met. It remains within the realm of possibility that the current drought series could result in a death toll higher than that of the 2011-2012 catastrophe in Somalia, during which a majority of the 260,000 deaths occurred before a Famine was declared, according to a mortality study.

While the lack of response in the eastern Horn may be partially attributable to a phenomenon known as “drought fatigue”, other global events in recent years – including the COVID-19 pandemic, Ukraine crisis, and skyrocketing inflation – have not only taken attention away from the ongoing drought disaster, but have also compounded its effects.

Food security and agroclimatology experts are certain the exceptional nature of the ongoing drought warrants increased global attention. The ongoing drought, which began in late 2020, is being described as the longest and most severe drought recorded in the Horn of Africa in at least 70 years. The disaster has resulted in multiple failed harvests and large-scale livestock deaths that have decimated food and income sources for rural communities, increased the cost of food among urban communities, and led to rising levels of destitution and displacement.

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