• A severe multi-season drought in the eastern Horn of Africa has killed more than seven million livestock in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, devastating pastoral livelihoods.
• Livestock losses are already reducing milk production and incomes, increasing malnutrition and the risk of hunger for communities that depend on animals for food and earnings.
• Experts warn recovery will take years, requiring sustained humanitarian assistance and proactive interventions to help pastoral communities rebuild herds and livelihoods.

More than seven million animals dead in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia

Millions of people across the eastern Horn of Africa currently face the threat of starvation amid an unprecedented multi-season drought and compounding global shocks. As the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) and other food security organizations urge the international community to ramp up relief efforts, experts warn that the impacts of extreme livestock losses as a result of the drought will be felt for years to come.

“The food security crisis in the Horn is already dire, and the window to prevent even further catastrophic outcomes ahead of a potential fifth consecutive failed rainy season later this year is closing quickly,” FEWS NET Team Leader Kiersten Johnson said. “The impacts of drought on pastoralists in the region have been severe. Recovering from the loss of more than seven million livestock – animals that provide essential nutrition and incomes to people in this region – will not only be incredibly difficult, but will require long-term support on an international scale.”

Pastoralists, by definition, are people who are livestock holders who receive most of their income from the production of animal products including meat, milk, blood, and hides. In the eastern Horn of Africa – as in much of the world’s drylands – pastoralists migrate with their animals in search of pasture and water sources for their herds. Pastoralism is uniquely suited to operate effectively in places with low rainfall totals and highly variable seasonal rainfall conditions. Pastoralists are able to manage such geospatial and temporal extremes by accessing and integrating a variety of landscapes and species into their production systems.

“Herders typically move livestock to drier areas during the rainy season and to wetter areas during the dry season,” American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Fellow and USAID Livestock Advisor Shaina Craige explained. “This seasonal migration pattern allows pastoralists to exploit the resources of different ecoregions in response to a dry and increasingly variable environment.”

Despite these practices, pastoralists are becoming extremely vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events. The rise in temperature and recurrent droughts in the eastern Horn of Africa have led to abnormal migratory patterns and contributed to the destabilization of pastoral systems. Other factors that worsen pastoralists’ vulnerability include conflict, land use change, sedentarization, and pressures associated with human population growth.

As severe pasture and water shortages further deteriorate livestock body conditions and drive more livestock deaths due to starvation and drought-induced diseases, experts warn that food insecurity, malnutrition, and hunger-related mortality are likely to increase. 

“We are witnessing high rates of livestock deaths, distressed sales, and low animal birth rates in the Horn, which will have widespread impacts in two separate phases,” Craige and BHA Livestock Advisor Christine Jost explained. “Immediately during the drought, these factors cause milk production to decline precipitously, leading to malnutrition and mortality, particularly in children and pregnant and lactating women. In the medium- to long-term, these extreme losses of livestock will lead to lost livelihoods and increasing vulnerability for communities that rely on pastoralism as a source of income.”

In Ethiopia, pastoralist production is responsible for 80 percent of the nation’s annual milk supply. FEWS NET estimates that livestock deaths in southern and southeastern Ethiopia have reached 3.5 million since late 2021. Pasture conditions in the region range from poor to the driest on record, leaving pastoralists with little to no migration options. 

In Kenya, pastoralism accounts for 30 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). In the country’s arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) areas, a total of 2.43 million livestock have died since October 2021, representing an overall mortality rate of 3.55 percent, according to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). Livestock milk production is currently around 60 percent below average in pastoral areas, and pasture and water availability, which are already poor, are expected to deteriorate further.

In Somalia, livestock production is the primary economic activity, contributing to nearly 50 percent of the country’s GDP and more than 60 percent of its export revenue. The latest estimates from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) indicate that 3 million livestock died in Somalia between July 2021 and April 2022. FEWS NET expects livestock deaths to accelerate and peak during the July-September 2022 dry season.

Experts warn that livestock mortality rates across the eastern Horn of Africa are likely much higher than what is currently being reported.

Livestock experts: Humanitarian responses to loss of livestock must include proactive measures

The process of rebuilding livestock herds and recovering pastures that have been impacted by the ongoing multi-season drought will take years. To address the immediate impacts on pastoral livelihoods and worsening levels of food insecurity, FEWS NET has called on the global community to ramp up humanitarian assistance in the form of food aid to pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.

While livestock interventions alone are rarely enough to revive pastoral systems impacted by drought, guidelines and standards for livestock interventions available in the widely used Livestock Emergency Guidelines and Standards (LEGS) handbook can provide relief if adopted swiftly.

Destocking is one example of a cost-effective drought intervention that can help take pressure off of pastoralists at the onset of an emergency. This practice involves removing affected animals before they become emaciated, lose their value, or die.

“Destocking is a common response to drought when animals would otherwise deteriorate and die. It allows potential livestock losses to be converted into cash or meat,” the handbook states. “Removing animals relieves pressure on scarce feed, grazing, and water supplies to the benefit of the remaining stock. Meat from slaughtered animals can supplement the diets of vulnerable families.”

Although destocking can serve as a productive coping strategy in certain situations, the window to utilize the method in the eastern Horn of Africa is closing. According to livestock experts, proactive intervention strategies are more likely to provide long-term benefits to communities already suffering as a result of widespread livestock losses. 

As previous droughts have shown, even if upcoming rainy seasons perform well, full recovery of herds, soil moisture, and pastures will take years. This rings particularly true for the ongoing multi-season drought in the eastern Horn of Africa, where communities have not had the opportunity to recover from the previous drought of 2016/17. The international community must provide adequate assistance to the eastern Horn of Africa in the coming years to protect pastoral and agro-pastoral communities from further harm.

For more information on food insecurity in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, access FEWS NET’s Horn of Africa page.

Sign up to receive FEWS NET reports and updates in your inbox.