The likely poor kharif harvest and elevated food prices drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3)

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Balochistan Province through January 2027, where expected below-average monsoon rainfall and associated kharif harvest, degraded rangeland conditions, high prices, and trade disruptions with Afghanistan and Iran will likely constrain food and income access. Rabi food stocks are expected to begin depleting in October, increasing market reliance on food amid below-average agricultural labor opportunities and weak purchasing power.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) through the projection period. An anticipated below-average kharif harvest and early depletion of rabi food stocks are expected to increase market dependence amid constrained purchasing power. Starting in October, as wheat stocks deplete and food access constraints intensify, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand to more areas.
• The kharif harvest is expected to be below last year, driven by below-average area planted and monsoon rainfall. Land preparation and planting are currently underway and expected to conclude in late July or early August. The forecast below-average monsoon season will likely cause soil moisture stress in southern Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Balochistan provinces.

• Food assistance needs in Pakistan are estimated to peak at 17.00-17.99 million people between December 2026 and January 2027, representing 5-10 percent of the total population. Balochistan and Sindh provinces are the areas of highest concern, where above-average staple food prices, driven by high fuel costs and trade disruptions with Afghanistan and Iran, are expected to constrain household access to income for food purchases. While the 2026 rabi harvest is expected to improve national food availability, poor households will most likely deplete wheat stocks earlier than normal and become market reliant starting in October, resulting in an increase in the population in need.

  The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 25, 2026.

Pakistan's food supply is shaped primarily by domestic cereal production, predominantly wheat, rice, and maize, with wheat serving as the primary staple and main pillar of domestic supply. Most agricultural production is concentrated in the irrigated Indus Basin, where the Indus River and its tributaries support the world's largest contiguous irrigation system, underpinning approximately 90 percent of agricultural production. Pakistan's geography is highly diverse, ranging from high mountain ranges in the north to the plains of the Indus River system in the central and southern regions and the arid plateau of Balochistan in the west. These ecological zones shape distinct livelihood systems, including irrigated (nahri) and rainfed (barani) crop and livestock production, arid desert pastoralism, coastal fishing, and mountainous pastoral systems. 

Seasonal livelihood patterns are largely driven by the South Asian monsoon and the two main cropping seasons. The kharif season (April to November) supports the cultivation of cotton, rice, maize, sugarcane, millet, and sorghum, with planting from April to July and harvesting from September to November. The rabi season (October to June) is dominated by winter wheat, planted between October and December and harvested from mid-March to mid-June. Demand for agricultural labor increases significantly during these periods, providing income-earning opportunities for poor households through land preparation, planting, weeding, irrigating, and harvesting. The lean season occurs between January and March, when household dependence on market purchases is highest and household food stocks are depleted.

Poor rural households obtain food through a combination of own production (both from crops and livestock) and market purchases. Wheat, the primary staple, is consumed year-round, while rice and other crops contribute seasonally, with cereals accounting for nearly 60 percent of caloric intake. Livestock is also a key livelihood component, contributing over 60 percent of agricultural GDP and serving as an important source of food and income for rural households.

This heavy dependence on agriculture leaves households vulnerable to weather and other shocks, as a single shock can simultaneously deplete food stocks and constrain income from crop and livestock sales. Poor households are also exposed to food price volatility, allocating 45 to 50 percent of total expenditure to food. In chronically food-insecure areas, the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) provides an important supplementary source of income for poor households.

Pakistan is prone to drought, erratic monsoon rainfall, flooding, irrigation water shortages, livestock disease, and crop pests. The 2022 floods affected millions of people and damaged crops, livestock, and infrastructure, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan provinces, while recurrent droughts and persistent water scarcity in these same provinces reduce agricultural productivity and livestock health. Despite humanitarian and livelihood assistance from federal and provincial governments and international humanitarian organizations, many flood-affected households have not fully recovered, as rehabilitation efforts have been constrained by limited funding. As a result, affected households continue to face reduced agricultural production, low asset holdings, and weakened income-earning opportunities, as they continue to rebuild their livelihoods.

Pakistan faces persistent internal insecurity, an insurgency in Balochistan by Baloch militants, and Islamist militancy concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency in KP has escalated since 2021, reaching a 10-year high in 2025, heightening tensions with the government of Afghanistan, which Pakistan accuses of harboring the group. Pakistan closed its borders with Afghanistan and suspended cross-border trade in October 2025 following an escalation in hostilities; a Qatar-brokered ceasefire collapsed in February 2026 when renewed fighting erupted in border regions. 

Pakistan's macroeconomic environment has stabilized from the acute external crises of 2022/23 but remains structurally fragile. Public debt remains elevated at around 70 percent of GDP, limiting fiscal space for subsidies, social protection, and shock response. Remittances, which reached 38.31 billion USD in FY 2025/26 and account for 6 to 9 percent of GDP, remain central to both external stability and household income. They constitute approximately 12 percent of total household income countrywide and are a particularly important source for rural households, where they account for 15 percent of income. However, the country remains heavily dependent on fuel imports, primarily from Gulf states, leaving it vulnerable to supply disruptions and higher shipping and insurance costs that pass through to transport, irrigation, milling, and food costs. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Special Report: Pakistan Country Context
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need  
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis 

• Rabi harvest: The 2026 rabi wheat harvest is complete at above last year’s levels and near the five-year average. The favorable harvest was supported by above-average area planted and a favorable October 2025 to April 2026 precipitation season, supporting crop development. 
• Water shortages: Irrigation water shortages are ongoing in Sindh and Balochistan provinces, driven by reduced canal water availability and allocation constraints within the Indus Basin during ongoing kharif planting. Sindh Province is facing the greatest constraints in downstream irrigation systems.
• Kharif planting: Rice, maize, cotton, sugarcane, sorghum, and millet planting is ongoing. Total area planted for most kharif crops is expected to be below last year’s levels due to ongoing water shortages and forecast below-average monsoon rainfall. In particular, water-intensive rice cultivation has been impacted due to ongoing water shortages.
• Livestock body conditions: Livestock body conditions are below average in some areas, particularly in the arid zones of Sindh, Balochistan, and southern parts of Punjab and KP provinces. High temperatures, heatwaves, and recent poor rainfall have degraded vegetation while contributing to livestock disease, lowering milk production and livestock prices (Figure 1).
• Macroeconomy: Following historic highs in mid-2023, national headline inflation eased significantly before gradually rising again in early 2026, reaching approximately 11 percent in May. This increase, driven in part by global economic and energy disruptions associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East, is contributing to elevated food and commodity prices. Elevated unemployment (at around 7 percent) has increased household vulnerability to shocks, particularly among poor households with limited alternative income sources.
• Fuel and transportation costs: According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, diesel prices on average nationally have risen sharply, increasing by 47 percent in June 2026 compared to June 2025, driven by regional supply disruptions associated with the global fuel market. Prices peaked in May 2026 at 49 percent above February 2026 levels, before easing to 39 percent above February levels in May. While the government has reduced fuel prices, the reductions have not matched the scale of the decline in international prices, as the government continues to adjust the petroleum development levy and other fuel taxes to sustain revenue, keeping domestic fuel prices elevated. Elevated diesel prices are raising transportation and agriculture costs, especially for agricultural machinery and large transport vehicles.
• Market function: Market function is constrained in some districts of KP and Balochistan provinces bordering Afghanistan and Iran, as the Afghanistan border closure and limited cross-border trade with Iran continue to disrupt the movement of goods. Localized conflict and road blockages in parts of KP and Balochistan provinces are further inhibiting trade routes, contributing to reduced market function, lower market supply, and higher food prices in affected areas. Elsewhere, markets are functioning normally.
• Staple food prices: Wheat, rice, meat, dairy products, pulses, vegetables, and fruit prices are above average countrywide, particularly in deficit-producing provinces and regions, driven by rising fuel and transportation costs, trader stockholding, and broader inflationary pressures.
• Labor: Non-agricultural labor opportunities in the construction, transport, and services sectors are below average, constrained by weak economic conditions, rising fuel costs, and inflationary pressures. In contrast, recent agricultural labor opportunities have been average, particularly cotton and sugarcane planting, and labor opportunities from the recently completed wheat, vegetable, and orchard harvests. However, labor opportunities for rice and maize planting are below average due to ongoing water shortages.
• Remittances: Remittances have increased by 15 percent compared to May 2025, as there has been an increase in workers abroad, despite recent regional escalations. Additionally, remittances increased seasonally during Eid ul-Adha in May. 

Humanitarian food assistance

Currently, humanitarian food assistance is ongoing in two districts of KP Province, Kurram and Khyber districts, where WFP is assisting approximately 20,000 people displaced by conflict. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing across most of Balochistan Province. Poor households, particularly in conflict-affected and border areas, have below-average purchasing power, as reduced wage opportunities and declining income from milk and livestock sales limit their ability to purchase food amid high food and fuel prices. While the rabi wheat harvest has temporarily improved household access to own-produced food and stabilized market supply, these gains are insufficient to offset below-average income-earning opportunities and elevated commodity prices. As a result, poor households food consumption gaps are ongoing while households are also engaging in negative coping strategies, including increased borrowing, purchasing food on credit, and atypical sales of livestock in attempt to access food. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in rainfed, mountainous, and conflict-affected areas, particularly Kurram and Khyber districts, which host large populations of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Reduced labor opportunities are constraining household income, while high food prices are leaving poor households with below-average purchasing power at a time when they are market reliant. Poor households are experiencing food consumption gaps and engaging in negative coping strategies, including purchasing food on credit, increased borrowing, and reducing essential expenditures such as on health and education.

In areas facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, particularly irrigated and mixed farming areas, households are accessing food through own-produced stocks from the rabi wheat harvest, alongside market purchases for food with sufficient income from livestock sales and agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities. In remote and rainfed districts, household income is constrained due to limited income-earning opportunities amid the high cost of market purchases, weakening the purchasing power of poor households and access to their nonfood needs. 

Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing in Sindh Province, where household access to food has been supported by the recent rabi wheat harvest, vegetables and fruit sales, and milk from livestock. Household access to income is supported by seasonal livestock sales during Eid al-Adha and agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities, supplemented by cash transfers through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in Tharparkar district, a pastoral area where households have decreased income from livestock for food purchases due to high temperatures and low rainfall. Combined with elevated food prices, poor households have below-average purchasing power. To access food, households are engaging in negative coping strategies, including purchasing food on credit and selling productive assets; however, this is insufficient for households to meet their food needs.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), with localized areas of GB facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In districts facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), poor households are highly reliant on market purchases, as households have limited own-produced stocks following a localized below-average rabi wheat harvest. Income from livestock sales has declined, while elevated food prices drive below-average purchasing power, notably in remote and mountainous areas where food prices are even higher than in neighboring areas. As a result, households are likely facing food consumption gaps.

Elsewhere in GB and AJK, households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are accessing food through small-scale wheat, vegetable, and milk from livestock. Livestock sales, remittances (particularly in AJK), tourism-related activities, seasonal non-agricultural labor, and cash transfers through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) are providing households with sufficient income for food purchases. While households are able to meet their food needs, they are unable to meet their non-food needs.

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing in the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and the majority of Punjab Province, while some districts in Punjab Province are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In areas where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing, household access to food is supported by the recent rabi wheat harvest, while seasonal income from vegetable and fruit sales, livestock production, and social safety net assistance supports access to income. Households are spending most of their income on food. As such, there is little income left for nonfood purchases.  

• Between July and September, monsoon rains are expected to be average in western regions of Balochistan Province, above average in northern KP Province, AJK, and GB, and below average across the rest of the country. Below-average rainfall in southern regions will likely compound existing water shortages and soil moisture stress.
• Between October and January 2027, precipitation is expected to be above average countrywide due to El Niño, with some localized regions in the southwest expected to be average.
• Above-average daily mean temperatures are likely to persist through December 2026, with extreme temperatures possible.
• Irrigation water shortages are expected to persist in Sindh and parts of Balochistan provinces through the kharif season, driven by reduced canal water availability and allocation constraints within the Indus Basin, with the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) projecting shortfalls during the start of the kharif season from May to July. Sindh Province is expected to face the greatest constraints in downstream irrigation systems, where limited tube-well substitution potential due to groundwater salinity is expected to compound canal water deficits. In areas of Balochistan Province, declining water tables and high pumping costs are expected to similarly limit tube-well substitution. In contrast, widespread tube-well irrigation is expected to partially offset canal water deficits in Punjab Province.
• Kharif land preparation and planting, primarily of rice and maize, are expected to be below average. Forecast below-average monsoon rainfall is expected to compound ongoing water shortages and soil moisture stress in southern Punjab, Sindh, southern KP, and Balochistan provinces, constraining crop development. As a result, the August to November kharif harvest will most likely be below average. 
• Livestock body conditions are expected to be below average through the projection period, driven by below-average pasture and fodder availability amid poor rainfall and high temperatures. 
• The border closure with Afghanistan is expected to continue through January, driven by a volatile security situation, ongoing military operations, cross-border militancy, and contentious refugee repatriation policies. Border crossings at Torkham, Chaman, Zhob, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, and Chagai with Afghanistan, and Chagai, Panjgur, Kech, and Gwadar with Iran in Balochistan, are expected to remain closed. 
• Conflict by Baloch militant groups in areas of Balochistan Province is expected to continue throughout the projection period, with activity likely to increase between June and September, targeting key highways that are vital for the movement of food and other goods. Road blockades, ambushes, and attacks by Baloch militants are expected to disrupt supply chains and limit the flow of essential commodities from Sindh and Punjab provinces into Balochistan Province. Between October and January, winter conditions in mountainous areas typically reduce militant movements and attack frequency; however, targeted violence against government infrastructure, security personnel and civilians, highways, and urban centers is expected to persist.
• Markets are expected to function normally through the projection period; however, subnational variation is expected. In some districts in KP and Balochistan provinces that border Afghanistan and Iran, market function is expected to be limited as the Afghanistan border closure and constrained cross-border trade with Iran persist. Furthermore, localized conflict and road blockages in some areas of KP and Balochistan provinces are expected to disrupt the movement of goods. 
• Fuel prices are expected to remain above last year and the five-year average through the projection period, driven by supply disruptions, rising global freight costs, and the recently introduced petroleum levy in line with IMF obligations. 
• Staple food prices are expected to increase between August and September, then stabilize thereafter, remaining well above last year and the five-year average, driven by inflationary pressures, rising fuel and transportation costs, and increased market demand as household food stocks are depleted (Figure 2). 
• Agricultural labor opportunities will most likely be available at below-average levels through the projection period, associated with below-average land preparation and planting. Starting in September through November, labor opportunities during the kharif harvesting period will be constrained as high input costs and unfavorable conditions will likely dissuade landowners from hiring additional labor. 

Humanitarian food assistance

• No humanitarian food assistance has been planned.

Across most of Balochistan Province, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January 2027 as households are expected to face limited household food stocks amid below-average purchasing power. Although poor households will most likely have own-produced food stocks from the rabi harvest, it is anticipated to be insufficient to meet their minimum food needs. As a result, households will increasingly rely on market purchases to supplement food consumption; however, due to below-average purchasing power, households will be unable to meet their food needs. This is largely driven by below-average income from labor and elevated food prices. 

In districts bordering Afghanistan, households that typically depend on cross-border trade are expected to continue to face constraints in accessing income due to the expected continued border closures. In conflict-affected and adjacent areas, recurrent insecurity and supply chain disruptions are expected to constrain market functioning and reduce access to income, limiting household market access. In an effort to mitigate food consumption gaps, poor households are expected to engage in negative coping strategies, including purchasing food on credit, borrowing, and the distress sale of livestock. However, these strategies are not expected to be sufficient to fully offset food deficits, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) most likely. 

By October, household food stocks are expected to be exhausted atypically early, increasing reliance on market purchases and expanding the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. High food prices, coupled with below-average income from labor and livestock sales, are expected to constrain market access. However, in some districts where the own produced food stocks from the rabi harvest are expected to provide sufficient food for consumption through the end of the projection period, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected. 

In Sindh Province, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through the projection period, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes becoming increasingly widespread from October onward as household food access declines. Between June and September, households in areas classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected to maintain minimally adequate food consumption through food purchases supported by labor. In contrast, poor households in areas anticipated to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3), insufficient income from livestock and labor to meet their food needs through market purchases.

By October, own-produced food stocks are expected to be depleted, increasing household reliance on markets for food. At the same time, high food prices amid below-average income from labor are expected to constrain purchasing power, resulting in the deterioration in food security outcomes and the expansion of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) areas. To access food, poor households are expected to engage in negative coping strategies, including purchasing food on credit and selling productive assets.

In KP Province, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through the projection period. Poor households in mountainous, remote, and conflict-affected districts are expected to face increasing economic and physical constraints to food access, limiting their ability to meet minimum food needs. Households that typically rely on cross-border trade with Afghanistan are expected to continue experiencing below-average income due to ongoing border restrictions, while poor households in remote and mountainous areas will remain highly market-dependent amid below-average purchasing power. As a result, households are expected to face difficulty accessing sufficient food through markets and increasingly engage in coping strategies, including purchasing food on credit, reducing essential non-food expenditures, and distress livestock sales.

In GB, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes becoming more widespread in the mountainous areas beginning in October. Between June and September, households are anticipated to access food through a combination of small-scale crop production, livestock rearing, seasonal labor migration, and remittances for market purchases, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) across most districts. However, in areas anticipated to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3), poor households are expected to face constraints to purchasing market foods. From October to January, household access to food will become increasingly constrained, as the onset of winter limits livelihood activities and market access. At the same time, seasonal declines in labor opportunities and elevated staple food prices are expected to drive reduced purchasing power. As a result, households are expected to rely on negative coping strategies, including purchasing food on credit, borrowing, and reducing expenditures, particularly in mountainous areas.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across most of AJK through September 2026, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging in Neelum and Haveli districts between October 2026 and January 2027. Through September, seasonal agricultural production, livestock products, labor opportunities, and remittance inflows are expected to support household food access and income, enabling most households to meet their minimum food needs.

Beginning in October, poor households are expected to face constrained purchasing power, particularly in Neelum and Haveli districts, where reduced income and increased market reliance are likely to result in food consumption gaps. To mitigate these deficits, households are expected to increasingly engage in coping strategies, including borrowing, purchasing food on credit, reducing non-essential expenditures, and distress livestock sales. Nevertheless, these measures are expected to be insufficient to prevent the emergence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. 
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development.