Nepal

• While the peak of the lean season from July to September is expected to drive increases in the population facing outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3), outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected at the area level. In areas where outcomes are aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) below-average income from declines in labor availability and seasonal product sales as well as recovery from past shocks is expected to prevent households from meeting their non-food needs. In the rest of the country, outcomes aligned Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are likely as most households are anticipated to meet their food and nonfood needs. 
• Beginning in October, as the lean season comes to an end, the availability of the maize and rice harvests are expected to improve food access and availability countrywide. Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in the northwestern mountains as winter starts in late 2026 decreasing access to food and income. Minimal (IPC Phase 1)-aligned outcomes are expected to be widespread as households access food and income from crop production alongside improved earnings from livestock, and remittances during the October to November festive period. 
• The population in need of food assistance is expected to reach an annual peak within the range of 1.5-1.99 million during the July to September lean season. These populations are likely to be concentrated in the northwestern mountains and hills, which remain areas of greatest concern as some households face difficulty accessing income for sufficient food and non-food purchases. Households in these regions continue to recover from past earthquakes, while chronic food insecurity remains high, increasing vulnerability to future shocks and limiting their capacity to withstand additional stressors.

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 22, 2026.