El Niño is forecast to bring below-average monsoon rains, constraining October harvest

• In Pakistan, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across much of Balochistan and Sindh through January 2027 as poor households deplete wheat stocks and become increasingly market reliant, as well as face high food prices, weak labor income, and continued disruptions to border trade. Below-average monsoon rainfall, irrigation shortages, and a likely poor kharif harvest will further constrain food and income access, while winter-related reductions in employment and market access are expected to drive assistance needs to peak between December and January. 
• In Nepal, outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected across the northwestern hills and mountains from July to September as the lean season peaks, food stocks decline, and below-average labor and migration income constrain purchasing power. Some poor households are expected to face outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during this period. From October, the availability of the maize and rice harvests is expected to improve food access and drive countrywide improvements in acute food insecurity. However, the likely below-average monsoon is anticipated to drive below-average rice production and delay winter wheat planting, decreasing access to food and income from these sources. 
• In Sri Lanka, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in plantation, western and northern coastal fishing, and urban and peri-urban areas through January 2027, as elevated food, fuel, transportation, and livelihood-input costs continue to outpace low wages and constrain purchasing power among highly market-dependent households. Favorable yala production will support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes across most dry zone areas through September. However, from October to December, as household food stocks decline and seasonal flooding disrupts livelihoods and markets, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will likely expand through the dry zone before the maha harvest improves food and income access in January. 

This regional report summarizes the analysis presented in FEWS NET’s country-level Food Security Outlooks for June 2026 to January 2027.

Nepal

Key messages

• While the peak of the lean season from July to September is expected to drive increases in the population facing outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3), outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected at the area level. In areas where outcomes are aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2), below-average income from declines in labor availability and seasonal product sales, as well as recovery from past shocks, is expected to prevent households from meeting their non-food needs. In the rest of the country, outcomes aligned with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) are likely as most households are anticipated to meet their food and non-food needs. 
• Beginning in October, as the lean season comes to an end, the availability of the maize and rice harvests is expected to improve food access and availability countrywide. Outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in the northwestern mountains as winter starts in late 2026, decreasing access to food and income. Minimal (IPC Phase 1)-aligned outcomes are expected to be widespread as households access food and income from crop production alongside improved earnings from livestock, and remittances during the October to November festive period. 
• The population in need of food assistance is expected to reach an annual peak of 1.5-1.99 million during the July to September lean season. These populations are likely to be concentrated in the northwestern mountains and hills, which remain areas of greatest concern as some households face difficulty accessing income for sufficient food and non-food purchases. Households in these regions continue to recover from past earthquakes, while chronic food insecurity remains high, increasing vulnerability to future shocks and limiting their capacity to withstand additional stressors.

For more information, see the Nepal Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Pakistan

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Balochistan Province through January 2027, where expected below-average monsoon rainfall and associated kharif harvest, degraded rangeland conditions, high prices, and trade disruptions with Afghanistan and Iran will likely constrain food and income access. Rabi food stocks are expected to begin depleting in October, increasing market reliance for food amid below-average agricultural labor opportunities and weak purchasing power.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) through the projection period. An anticipated below-average kharif harvest and early depletion of rabi food stocks are expected to increase market dependence amid constrained purchasing power. Starting in October, as wheat stocks deplete and food access constraints intensify, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand to more areas.
• The kharif harvest is expected to be below last year, driven by below-average area planted and anticipated below-average monsoon rainfall. Land preparation and planting are currently underway and expected to conclude in late July or early August. The forecast below-average monsoon season will likely cause soil moisture stress in southern Punjab, Sindh, southern KP, and Balochistan provinces.
• Food assistance needs in Pakistan are estimated to peak at 17.00-17.99 million people between December 2026 and January 2027, representing 5-10 percent of the total population. Balochistan and Sindh provinces are the areas of highest concern, where above-average staple food driven by high fuel costs and trade disruptions with Afghanistan and Iran are expected to constrain household access to income for food purchases. While the 2026 rabi harvest is expected to improve national food availability, poor households will most likely deplete wheat stocks earlier than normal and become market reliant starting in October, resulting in an increase in the population in need.

For more information, see the Pakistan Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Sri Lanka

Key messages

• From June to September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the wet zone, western and northern coastal areas, and urban and peri-urban districts across Sri Lanka. Elevated transportation, agriculture production, and fishing input costs, and food prices amid low wages and limited income access are driving poor purchasing capacity among highly market-reliant households as the population continues to recover from the 2022 economic crisis and Cyclone Ditwah. In the intermediate and dry zones, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely, as favorable July-September yala paddy harvests, peak vegetable harvests, and seasonal labor opportunities become available.   
• From October to January, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through the lean season. Deterioration to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected across irrigated and rainfed dry zone areas as prior maha and yala food stocks begin to exhaust, and northeast monsoon rains result in flooding and landslides, driving localized disruptions to livelihoods and market access. In January, as maha harvests become available, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to resume across the dry zone.   
• FEWS NET estimates that between 1.0-1.49 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance, with needs likely peaking from October to December, when food stocks exhaust, market dependence increases, weather shocks are at their peak, and prices remain seasonally elevated. The areas of highest concern are wet zone plantation areas, western and northern coastal fishing areas, and urban and peri-urban areas. The populations of highest concern are primarily low-wage plantation laborers, coastal fish-dependent households, and the urban poor who are market-reliant and have minimal income sources.

For more information, see the Sri Lanka Food Security Outlook from June 2026 - January 2027.