Wheat harvest improves household access to food and income

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The wheat harvest began in May in mostly lower-elevation areas, improving household access to food and income. However, in areas where the harvest has yet to start and due to the cumulative impacts of multiple years of drought, high numbers of returnees, and a weak economy, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are still ongoing in western, central, and northeastern regions. In particular, outcomes in the central provinces of Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces are now likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as the start of the harvest has mitigated large food consumption gaps that were experienced during the lean season. While the availability of the harvest has improved food security outcomes, many poor households continue to face food consumption deficits due limited time to recover from past shocks, high competition for labor, and below-average purchasing power. The wheat harvest in most higher-elevation areas occurs slightly later, in June, preventing improvements in May as many regions have not yet benefited from harvests.
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected from June to September in western and southeastern areas as the wheat harvest begins in higher-elevation areas. Conversely, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the northeast, southwest, and Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi. In northeastern regions, remote and mountainous terrain creates physical access constraints and high transportation costs that reduce trader incentives to supply more remote areas, limiting market availability and raising prices. For poor households, these elevated prices combined with weak purchasing power further constrain economic access to food through markets. Elsewhere, below-average agricultural production, livestock herds, and seasonal labor demand are expected to drive food consumption deficits despite the wheat harvest. Households continue to face high debt burdens, limited assets, and below-average purchasing power.
The national wheat harvest is expected to be above-average, as favorable precipitation has supported crop growth countrywide. As the harvest is underway or about to start, crop conditions are better than last year and the five-year average. However, the rainfed wheat harvest in localized areas in Faryab, Daykundi, Bamyan, Maidan Wardak, Takhar, and Zabul provinces is expected to be above last year but below the five-year average due to insufficient rainfall, resulting in insufficient moisture during key germination stages (October and November 2025).
In April, wheat and wheat flour prices remained stable compared to the previous month, supported by steady import flows through key trade routes from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan and a strong Afghani currency. However, the cumulative impact of regional escalation in the Middle East and the ongoing Afghanistan-Pakistan border closure has gradually increased import and transportation costs over several months, resulting in wheat flour and vegetable oil prices that, while stable month-on-month, remain significantly elevated compared to earlier in the season. According to WFP, prices of key imported commodities remained above last year, including wheat and wheat flour (10 percent) and vegetable oil (9 percent). Prices for most goods remain higher compared to October 2025, before the Afghanistan-Pakistan border closure, including wheat and wheat flour (7 percent) and vegetable oil (5 percent), driven by ongoing trade disruptions from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border closure and constraints along import routes through Iran and the Middle East.
Fertilizer prices, particularly urea, increased by 17 percent compared to the previous month and 13 percent compared to the five-year average, driven by regional trade disruptions, higher transportation costs, seasonal demand during land preparation and planting, and temporary supply shortages. Harvesting of spring-planted crops begins in June for approximately 24 provinces, and these crops require two to three rounds of additional fertilizer before harvesting. While better-off and middle-income households are likely to purchase fertilizer ahead of price increases, poor households will continue to purchase on an as-needed basis, often on credit or through loans, further constraining their financial capacity and limiting adequate fertilizer application ahead of later harvests.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Key Message Update May - September 2026: Wheat harvest improves household access to food and income, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.