Wheat harvest in the highlands is expected to improve food availability

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the central highlands as well as in northeastern and western parts of the country (including Badghis and Ghor provinces), due to limited recovery from the 2020/21 to 2022/23 drought and scarce labor opportunities available. The remainder of the country is experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes given access to own-produced food stocks and seasonal improvements in labor opportunities associated with the harvest. However, purchasing capacity remains lower than normal amid constrained labor opportunities.
From September to October, the wheat and potato harvests - and associated income - in the central highlands are expected to moderate food consumption deficits for some households temporarily. However, poorer households are likely to experience food consumption gaps in the west, north, and northeast from October onwards, as household food stocks deplete atypically early as a result of below-average production. Major urban centers across the country will most likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least January 2025, driven by high unemployment and ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
Second season crop planting, primarily of rice and maize, is nearly complete, with the maize harvest expected to commence in late August in eastern provinces. Field reports indicate that above-average precipitation in March and April has continued to mitigate drought-related water shortages with increased availability of surface water. In some localized areas in southeast and southern provinces, groundwater extracted through solar power systems is utilized for irrigation. However, Heavy rainfall in mid-July in eastern, central, and northeastern regions resulted in flooding with impacts across at least 85 villages. During this flooding event, according to a rapid assessment nearly 900 families lost their food stocks. Additionally, another storm in Nangarhar, in Khost and Paktia provinces, caused flooding that destroyed standing crops and damaged houses, according to FEWS NET’s field monitor.
In July, staple food prices (including wheat grain, flour, sugar, pulses, and rice) remained stable, with marginal fluctuations of one to two percent from the previous month. This stability is supported by increased wheat supply from the recent harvest, continued imports from neighboring countries, stable diesel prices – particularly in flood-affected provinces, and the relative stability of the Afghani against other major currencies, particularly the USD. Roadwork commenced on the Salang Pass in August, a primary trade route from key northern border crossings to the south, resulting in road closures and potential trade disruptions. The government plans to provide an alternative route for trucks; however, if this route is not established, disruptions to the flow of goods could lead to price increases in southern areas, notably Kabul.
According to FSAC, humanitarians reached 1.7 million people with emergency food, livelihood, and agriculture assistance in July; of these, 1.2 million beneficiaries received emergency food assistance at half rations. Nationally, food assistance distributions decreased by 50 percent month-on-month nationally and by almost 73 percent compared to the average of the past five months – as is typical for this time of year. Assistance is primarily distributed to populations facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, those impacted by natural disasters, and cross-border returnees from Pakistan and Iran.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Key Message Update August - December 2024: Wheat harvest in the highlands is expected to improve food availability, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.