Food access to improve with the harvest for millions starting in May

• Starting in May/June, the anticipated average wheat harvest is expected to improve household access to food and income for millions across the country. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely from May through September. Poor households will likely have improved access to own produce foods and agricultural labor income associated with harvesting. Despite seasonal gains, households in some areas are likely to continue to face food consumption gaps, as income from agricultural labor will remain insufficient to cover market food purchases.
• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces as the lean season concludes through April. Poor households face extreme difficulty accessing food from the market. The continued influx of returnees continues to increase labor competition, weakening household access to income. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist through May in the northern, western, southeastern, and central highlands. Households in these regions have exhausted food stocks and face below-average access to income. In June, these areas are likely to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as the wheat harvest begins.
• Cumulative precipitation during the March–May rainy season has been largely below average, with pockets of above-average rainfall in southeastern, eastern, and northern regions. Heavy rainfall in late April has resulted in flash flooding countrywide, destroying homes, infrastructure, and agricultural land. Flooding impacts remain localized and will not have a significant impact on the harvest.

• Since mid-October 2025, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border has remained closed, with conflict occurring since late February 2026. The border closure is expected to last through at least September, disrupting livelihood activities, limiting cross-border trade, marginally increasing prices, and adding pressure to an already weak economy.

  This report provides an update to the February 2026 to September 2026 Food Security Outlook and March 2026 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of April 29, 2026. 

• Precipitation: As of late April, cumulative precipitation for the October 2025 to May 2026 season is below average in central, southwestern, northern, and northeastern regions. Conversely, localized average to above-average precipitation is observed in southeastern, eastern, and western regions. Despite being below average, precipitation has significantly improved compared to the previous year, providing much-needed reprieve to farmers. Cumulative precipitation for the spring March to May rainy season has been largely below average in western, southwestern, central, northern, and northeastern regions, while southeastern, eastern, and pockets of northern regions have been above average (Figure 1). However, in late March to early April, above-average precipitation was observed countrywide, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding has impacted nearly 74,000 people to date, destroying homes, infrastructure, and agricultural land. However, while flooding impacts have had adverse impacts in localized areas, the overall impacts on food security conditions have not been significant.
• Crop conditions: Total area planted for spring wheat planting, completed in March, is higher than last year due to favorable soil moisture conditions. Crop conditions for both spring and winter wheat are favorable countrywide, according to field reports. The favorable late March to early April precipitation supported crop development, particularly in southeastern and eastern regions. Sufficient and timely precipitation continues to support crop growth, particularly for rainfed wheat. Most spring wheat crops are in vegetative stage, with observations of favorable germination and early development. Crop conditions are showing improvements compared to both last year and the five-year average, as previous years have faced poor rainfall and drought.
• Trade: While trade between Afghanistan and Iran continues, trade flows are increasingly disrupted and operating at below-average levels amid ongoing regional escalations. To date, impacts on trade have been limited to a select few commodities, such as construction materials and fertilizer. Other key food and non-food commodities have not seen a significant decline in trade, despite the ongoing situation in the Middle East. 
• Labor opportunities: The regional escalation in the Middle East has resulted in rising input costs for some sectors, such as construction and agriculture. Construction material prices have increased, particularly cement and iron bars, as these inputs are typically imported from Iran. According to key informants, prices have increased between 5 and 15 percent since February. Additionally, Afghans continue to return from Iran and Pakistan, though at declining rates, further compounding the limited availability of casual construction labor by increasing competition and oversupply of labor. In March 2026, casual labor opportunities were 21 percent lower compared to the previous year and 17 percent lower compared to the five-year average. 
• Fertilizer prices: Fertilizer prices increased in March 2026 as reduced production and imports from Iran and other Middle East countries decreased, where urea increased by 12 percent. Winter-planted crops require only one additional round of fertilizer, limiting exposure to price increases; however, spring-planted crops require application of two to three rounds of urea before the harvest and are likely to be more affected, particularly in approximately 24 provinces where harvesting is not expected until June to September. Better-off and middle-income households are likely to purchase fertilizer prior to price increases, while poor households will continue to purchase fertilizer after price increases, often on credit or through loans on an as-needed basis. Rising input costs are further constraining the financial capacity of farmers and limiting their ability to apply adequate fertilizer ahead of the harvest.
• Staple food prices: Wheat and wheat flour prices increased marginally in March, and remain 9 percent higher than the same time last year. Wheat prices remain stable as supplies continue to flow through key trade routes from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, supported by a strong AFN. In contrast, regional escalation in the Middle East, combined with the ongoing Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict, has increased import and transport costs, contributing to higher prices for vegetable oil, sugar, and rice. Rice prices increased by 41 percent compared to October 2025, when the border closure with Pakistan began, while sugar prices have increased by 14 percent. However, these food commodities do not contribute significantly to the food baskets of poor households. The Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) cash basket, which includes wheat flour, rice, a pulse, vegetable oil, and salt, has marginally increased since the onset of conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in February 2026. However, since the border closure with Pakistan began in October 2025, the FSAC cash basket has increased by 12 percent. 

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the February to September 2026 Afghanistan Food Security Outlook  remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• Precipitation for the March to May spring season is likely to be average, with pockets of above-average precipitation in southeastern, eastern, and pockets of northern regions. The rest of the country is expected to face below-average precipitation.
• Recent precipitation in the central highlands and northeastern areas has increased snowpack and snow water volumes. However, snowpack and snow water equivalent values have declined to below-average levels in all other basins due to above-average temperatures and are expected to continue declining through May 2026.
• Through May, the risk of flooding and landslides, associated with intense rainfall, has increased countrywide.

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to continue through April in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces as the lean season peaks. Poor households are entirely reliant on markets for food, with limited income for food purchases. Agricultural labor opportunities and casual labor opportunities, particularly in construction, are affected by high input costs of fertilizer and construction material related to the state of affairs in the Middle East. As a result, household access to income is becoming increasingly constrained. 

In May, an improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi is expected. Seasonal improvements from the expected average wheat harvest and favorable livestock production will ease food security conditions across these provinces. Poor households will likely experience only limited harvest-related improvements amid high debt burdens, few assets, and below-average purchasing power. Poor households will continue to face food consumption gaps, as income from harvest labor will be insufficient to cover market food purchases. As a result, poor households are likely to continue adopting coping strategies through the end of the projection period, such as reducing meal size, selling productive assets, and taking on further debt.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue through May in northern, western, southeastern, and central highlands. Households face limited access to income-earning opportunities, reduced remittances from Iran, and have completely exhausted food stocks. The continued impacts of returnees further strain access to food and income. While these regions experienced flash flooding in late March and early April, the impacts were localized and did not affect overall area-level food security outcomes. However, Baghlan, Nangarhar, Laghman, and Herat provinces were the most affected, with households facing damage to agricultural land and houses. Starting in June, these regions are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as the wheat harvest provides households with increased access to food and income. Additionally, while the harvest begins later in high-elevation areas, the availability of milk and other livestock products is expected to alleviate food consumption gaps and reduce reliance on negative coping strategies.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in northeastern provinces through September. Remote and mountainous terrain increases transportation costs, reducing market availability and raising prices, compounded by limited wage labor opportunities, resulting in weak purchasing power. Despite some expected improvements from the harvest, poor agricultural production, livestock herds, and seasonal labor demand are expected to drive food consumption deficits.

In urban areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through September. In areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, the ongoing influx of returnees continues to limit income-earning opportunities, as urban areas typically rely on casual labor. The ongoing conflict with Pakistan is expected to continue disrupting cross-border trade, daily labor movement, and small-scale businesses.Income from casual labor will remain insufficient to meet food consumption needs. As a result, households are expected to reduce meal frequency and portion sizes, purchase food on credit, deplete savings, sell non-productive assets, and cut non-food expenditures. Urban areas facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes benefit from stable income sources, including remittances from Gulf countries, and mixed livelihood activities such as petty trade and small-scale agriculture. 

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s February 2026 to September 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.